| Chark said
Yes i look at his chart and it does not present enough data to determine the remainder of tye year. I know its still dropping, it's entering the lowest sales time of the year. It will go up during the holiday season and from future software releases. To assume an average of 90k is not erroneous. It's an average. We dont know what the lowest point of sales will be so dont toss in that it s going to do worse than 40k like its a guarantee. Im looking at percentage decline week to week and it's slowing down. That slow down indicates a leveling off. The current week shows Europe having the largest drop, affecting overall percentage drop more than others. The US is dropping slowly now and Japan is level. The Vita's level off point world wde could arguably be 40k but it wont hit that till about May. I dont know what kind of fluctuations will occur until the season pics up but it can be expected that the Vita can move a few hundred thousand a week. The wild card is Japan, its selling twice as much psp's, if those sales shift to the new system sales during the off season will be much better. Btw his charts just shows the gap between the launches. The projections are very similar indicating reletivly the same sales growth, except Japan. It's really early to say much from that chart. What should be done is expanding it out a year and predicting the Vita's holiday growth line. I'll give it a shot tonight. Cut the "your logic is completleeeh" crap and understand there are various prediction methods and multiple factors that can affect the outcome. |
Your basis for assuming that the 3DS was performing the same as Vita was based on the fact that 3DS hit a record low the week before its announced price drop. Of course the sales were going to be horrendous that week, as most people were waiting to buy it for $80 less the next week. And it took longer for the 3DS to eventually drop and level out at the Vita's current numbers, not to mention it had a bigger install base when it finally did. So it's not "crap" to say that your logic for this comparison is flawed, because it is.
As far as Vita entering the lowest sales time of the year, the 3DS was in the same boat, so what's your point? Again, as bad as 3DS sales were, Vita's are even worse. I never once said that Vita sales would stay as low as they are forever.
Your 90k a week will only prove relevant if Vita sales shoot back up from its current 77,000, which of course is possible. But if sales keep dropping in the coming weeks or level out where it is currently, it is indeed erroneous to call 90k its average. And if you read my post again, you'll see that I never said Vita's sales were "guaranteed" to level out at 40k; what I in fact stated was that its pre price drop week would see sales below that, which I stand by unless a big game is released said week.
And I am well aware of the many factors and variables involved, which is why I stated in my very first post that the best thing to do is wait until after E3 to have much more knowledge on these variables before guessing what Vita will be at come year's end. If I were guessing purely on what we know now, I would say around 6m, which is what I voted for. But I actually believe that some pleasant news may come out of E3, which would put it around 8m by Dec 31st, IMO.
