How many Vita's will sell in 2012?

[Chark]

archbrix said:

Chark said:

archbrix said:

Chark said:

... the 3DS had just as low of sales until they cut the price...

No, Vita's sales are much lower when you align the two so far and take a couple of factors into consideration:

The Vita launched the week of Dec 12-18 in Japan, putting it on the market for about 3 1/2 months now and totaling 1.7m WW.

The 3DS in its first 3 1/2 months, at the same price, with far less games, and without the benefit of the holiday season in Japan amassed around 3m WW.

OT:  As far as what Vita will sell this year, I'd rather be fair and wait until after E3 when we know more (games, possible price drop).  Based on just what we know right now at $249, well, I'd rather not speculate since it wouldn't be much...

The 3DS had a large launch and launch sales drew out longer because of that. But then their sales dropped off sharply and they even sold down to the 40k a week level until the price drop. So yes the 3DS was doing the same thing despite the larger launch.

Your logic is completely flawed...

Yes, the 40k a week that the 3DS hit was the ONE week right before its price drop.  However we don't know what the Vita's sales will be in the week right before its price drop (certainly less than 40k), therefore we cannot compare this data.  As a result, it is incorrect to assume that 3DS and Vita are/will be performing the same based on this criteria.

What we can do is compare their performance thus far.  Clearly you didn't see Kowenicki's chart data:

Based on an accurate comparison, the Vita is tracking well below the 3DS when their sales so far are aligned.  Furthermore, the example in your OP of Vita's 90k a week is erroneous:  It's currently at 77,244 and falling every week.  So no, the 3DS was not doing the same, whether you compare their time on the market directly (again, with Vita's benefit of more games and the Japan holiday season) or predict where Vita will be leading up to its own price drop.

Yes i look at his chart and it does not present enough data to determine the remainder of tye year. I know its still dropping, it's entering the lowest sales time of the year. It will go up during the holiday season and from future software releases. To assume an average of 90k is not erroneous. It's an average. We dont know what the lowest point of sales will be so dont toss in that it s going to do worse than 40k like its a guarantee. Im looking at percentage decline week to week and it's slowing down. That slow down indicates a leveling off. The current week shows Europe having the largest drop, affecting overall percentage drop more than others. The US is dropping slowly now and Japan is level. The Vita's level off point world wde could arguably be 40k but it wont hit that till about May. I dont know what kind of fluctuations will occur until the season pics up but it can be expected that the Vita can move a few hundred thousand a week. 

The wild card is Japan, its selling twice as much psp's, if those sales shift to the new system sales during the off season will be much better.

Btw his charts just shows the gap between the launches. The projections are very similar indicating reletivly the same sales growth, except Japan. It's really early to say much from that chart. What should be done is expanding it out a year and predicting the Vita's holiday growth line. I'll give it a shot tonight.

Cut the "your logic is completleeeh" crap and understand there are various prediction methods and multiple factors that can affect the outcome.