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Forums - Nintendo - Wii U App Store: How Nintendo will take Apple on at their own game

HappySqurriel on 04 March 2012
happydolphin said:
HappySqurriel said:


They are huge, but so are PC sales numbers; and similar to PC sales numbers there is a lot of people who own multiple-computers, replace them far more regularly than people buy videogame consoles, and the vast majority of PCs are sold for uses other than playing games. There is an order of magnitude more PCs on the market than videogame consoles, and yet there are several times as many complicated games sold for consoles; and we (probably) have a very similar situation between tablets and smartphones and portable gaming systems.

@bold. The issue keyword with that argument is complicated. We're talking about extremely cheap and easy to pick up games such as Farmville and Angrybirds.

So, the situation is very different since the appeal of very cheap PC games has only increased as of late. Flash games have been around since around 2000, before that it was all shareware, which mostly PC enthusiasts were aware of and touched, but they prefered their complicated counterparts.

The truth is, the landscape of small affordable and entertaining games and their use on PC's, smartphones and tablets has radically changed in the last 4 years, mostly due to Facebook and Apple.

The threat exists.

Ultimately if the trend continues, gamers may conclude "I have all I need on my smartphone/tablet/facebook", hence the need to anticipate.

Of course happyS I don't advocate that Nintendo's current strategy is without value. I am psyched about the WiiU and fervently believe in it. But for applications such as Nintendogs and Brain Age, which were explosively bread and butter for Nintendo gen 7, may find a very real threat...

If I were them I would mitigate.

 


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bejeweled

"Bejeweled is a tile-matching puzzle video game by PopCap Games, first developed for browsers in 2001. Three follow-ups to this game have been released. More than 75 million copies of Bejeweled have been sold, and the game has been downloaded more than 500 million times"

It isn't new at all ...

Since the early 2000s there has been amazing interest in these kinds of simple games, and all that changed with the iPhone was people found a reliable way to charge small sums of money for them; rather than for these companies to pay for them through banner-ads or by charging far more for PC downloads. They have failed to have much of an impact on the "core" game market primarily because they are not in direct competition with it.

Much like how the growth of youtube isn't killing the motion picture industry, and twitter isn't killing newspapers, the iphone is not killing Nintendo; the companies may be struggling at the same time as these other companies are becomming popular, but the core of their problems are elsewhere. If the iPhone was really having an impact on Nintendo's handhelds why is the 3DS the fastest selling dedicated gaming device ever sold? Certainly, it struggled out of the gate but that had far more to do with Nintendo selling it at a very high price; not that the iPhone existed.



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happydolphin on 04 March 2012
oniyide said:

Wrong, those people are barely serious hobbyists.  I have a smart phone and I still carry my DSand Or PSP with me. You know why?? Because those phone/tablet/FB games suck, or at the very least dont even offer the types of games that the dedicated portables or home consoles do. I looking at the sales of 3DS and PSV to a lesser extent. reckon their are millions of people that think like me. As long as we dont "conclude" that we have all we NEED on those other devices. Ninty will be just fine.  Im not saying that those smartphone games have not had an effect, but people are losing it. Its not that serious

I wasn't talking about the hobbyists. I was talking about the mainstream and casual.

I think Ninty knows that their Brain Age type of games will be affected. Which is why they probably  went the "core" route with the 3DS, IMHO.  How can they mitigate??? By making an online store that MIGHT be as good as the App store. If Sony and MS couldnt make a dent in Apple, what makes you think Ninty can do it. ANd keep in mind, those two companies actual know what the hell they are doing when it comes to online. They are smart, they are playing their roles, Ninty needs to do the same.  The only way they can mitigate is to make an actual phone to go against the iphone, that would be suicide. Or make an actual tablet and no the WIii U controller is not an actual tablet it has less functionality than the crappy tablets out there, you cant even take it with you

I don't disagree with you. I don't know how they would mitigate and am not offering any solutions. TBH I think HappyS' solutions were the most interesting thus far.

I'm just saying there is either no mitigation solution, or there is one but the question is "what is it"?

Ultimately, and of course, this applies to the very casual side of Nintendo's business (Brain Age, Nintendogs, Animal Crossing).

Here are a few I highlighted from the top 66 DS games. There are 39 titles (60%) and they total 181.68M SW sales (of 348.06M, 52% sales) :

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
2 Nintendogs DS 2005 Simulation Nintendo 9.01 10.70 1.93 2.71 24.36
4 Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day DS 2005 Misc Nintendo 4.71 9.04 4.16 2.03 19.94
6 Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day DS 2005 Misc Nintendo 3.40 5.30 5.32 1.18 15.20
8 Animal Crossing: Wild World DS 2005 Simulation Nintendo 2.42 3.16 5.33 0.82 11.73
11 Mario Party DS DS 2007 Misc Nintendo 4.13 1.66 1.98 0.67 8.44
13 Big Brain Academy DS 2005 Misc Nintendo 1.64 2.67 1.60 0.61 6.53
15 Cooking Mama DS 2006 Simulation 505 Games 2.81 1.86 0.07 0.56 5.30
16 Professor Layton and the Curious Village DS 2007 Adventure Nintendo 1.18 2.28 1.03 0.50 4.99
17 Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games DS 2008 Sports Sega 1.61 2.35 0.44 0.56 4.96
21 Flash Focus: Vision Training in Minutes a Day DS 2007 Misc Nintendo 0.85 1.52 1.05 0.35 3.77
22 Professor Layton and the Diabolical Box DS 2007 Adventure Nintendo 0.71 1.77 0.92 0.37 3.77
23 Tomodachi Collection DS 2009 Misc Nintendo 0.00 0.00 3.67 0.00 3.67
25 MySims DS 2007 Simulation Electronic Arts 1.57 1.55 0.08 0.40 3.60
26 Cooking Mama 2: Dinner With Friends DS 2007 Simulation 505 Games 1.52 1.45 0.10 0.39 3.46
27 Guitar Hero: On Tour DS 2008 Misc Activision 2.07 0.99 0.01 0.34 3.41
28 Clubhouse Games DS 2006 Misc Nintendo 0.57 1.70 0.73 0.34 3.34
29 English Training: Have Fun Improving Your Skills! DS 2006 Misc Nintendo 0.00 0.99 2.32 0.02 3.33
30 Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games DS 2009 Sports Sega 1.17 1.45 0.27 0.35 3.24
31 Personal Trainer: Cooking DS 2006 Misc Nintendo 0.85 1.01 1.03 0.17 3.06
34 Rhythm Heaven DS 2008 Misc Nintendo 0.44 0.47 1.93 0.12 2.97
35 Club Penguin: Elite Penguin Force DS 2008 Adventure Disney Interactive Studios 1.74 0.93 0.00 0.29 2.96
36 Professor Layton and the Unwound Future DS 2008 Adventure Nintendo 0.43 1.37 0.82 0.26 2.88
38 Imagine: Babyz DS 2007 Simulation Ubisoft 1.28 1.25 0.00 0.31 2.83
39 Imagine: Fashion Designer DS 2007 Simulation Ubisoft 1.31 1.18 0.00 0.30 2.79
41 Hannah Montana DS 2006 Action Disney Interactive Studios 1.58 0.79 0.00 0.26 2.63
43 Style Savvy DS 2008 Simulation Nintendo 0.54 0.70 0.96 0.16 2.37
44 Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Mini-Land Mayhem! DS 2010 Puzzle Nintendo 1.41 0.42 0.35 0.19 2.36
45 Art Academy DS 2010 Misc Nintendo 0.22 1.50 0.33 0.26 2.31
46 WarioWare Touched! DS 2004 Puzzle Nintendo 0.50 0.43 1.21 0.13 2.26
49 Professor Layton and the Last Specter DS 2009 Adventure Nintendo 0.17 1.11 0.68 0.20 2.15
51 Tetris DS DS 2006 Puzzle Nintendo 0.62 0.01 1.35 0.07 2.05
52 LEGO Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures DS 2008 Adventure Activision 1.29 0.55 0.00 0.20 2.03
53 The Sims 2: Pets DS 2006 Simulation Electronic Arts 0.91 0.91 0.00 0.22 2.03
56 TouchMaster DS 2007 Puzzle Midway Games 0.46 1.25 0.00 0.24 1.95
58 Kirby Squeak Squad DS 2006 Platform Nintendo 0.77 0.01 1.05 0.08 1.90
59 Carnival Games DS 2008 Misc Take-Two Interactive 1.09 0.60 0.00 0.19 1.88
60 Scribblenauts DS 2009 Puzzle Warner Bros. Interactive 1.42 0.25 0.02 0.16 1.85
63 Kanshuu Nippon Joushikiryoku Kentei Kyoukai: Imasara Hito ni wa Kikenai Otona no Joushikiryoku Training DS DS 2006 Misc Nintendo 0.00 0.00 1.71 0.00 1.71
66 Imagine: Teacher DS 2008 Simulation Ubisoft 0.67 0.81 0.00 0.19 1.67


happydolphin on 04 March 2012

Also, with increased rapidity of development, these apps will increase in quality while maintaining a low sales price. The debate will only get more skewed in favor of social/mobile apps. Incumbent thinking is not the way to go. Some measure of mitigation is in order, but what, which? Those are the questions to be posed.



happydolphin on 04 March 2012
HappySqurriel said:
happydolphin said:
HappySqurriel said:


They are huge, but so are PC sales numbers; and similar to PC sales numbers there is a lot of people who own multiple-computers, replace them far more regularly than people buy videogame consoles, and the vast majority of PCs are sold for uses other than playing games. There is an order of magnitude more PCs on the market than videogame consoles, and yet there are several times as many complicated games sold for consoles; and we (probably) have a very similar situation between tablets and smartphones and portable gaming systems.

@bold. The issue keyword with that argument is complicated. We're talking about extremely cheap and easy to pick up games such as Farmville and Angrybirds.

So, the situation is very different since the appeal of very cheap PC games has only increased as of late. Flash games have been around since around 2000, before that it was all shareware, which mostly PC enthusiasts were aware of and touched, but they prefered their complicated counterparts.

The truth is, the landscape of small affordable and entertaining games and their use on PC's, smartphones and tablets has radically changed in the last 4 years, mostly due to Facebook and Apple.

The threat exists.

Ultimately if the trend continues, gamers may conclude "I have all I need on my smartphone/tablet/facebook", hence the need to anticipate.

Of course happyS I don't advocate that Nintendo's current strategy is without value. I am psyched about the WiiU and fervently believe in it. But for applications such as Nintendogs and Brain Age, which were explosively bread and butter for Nintendo gen 7, may find a very real threat...

If I were them I would mitigate.

 


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bejeweled

"Bejeweled is a tile-matching puzzle video game by PopCap Games, first developed for browsers in 2001. Three follow-ups to this game have been released. More than 75 million copies of Bejeweled have been sold, and the game has been downloaded more than 500 million times"

It isn't new at all ...

Since the early 2000s there has been amazing interest in these kinds of simple games, and all that changed with the iPhone was people found a reliable way to charge small sums of money for them; rather than for these companies to pay for them through banner-ads or by charging far more for PC downloads. They have failed to have much of an impact on the "core" game market primarily because they are not in direct competition with it.

Much like how the growth of youtube isn't killing the motion picture industry, and twitter isn't killing newspapers, the iphone is not killing Nintendo; the companies may be struggling at the same time as these other companies are becomming popular, but the core of their problems are elsewhere. If the iPhone was really having an impact on Nintendo's handhelds why is the 3DS the fastest selling dedicated gaming device ever sold? Certainly, it struggled out of the gate but that had far more to do with Nintendo selling it at a very high price; not that the iPhone existed.

I do agree that the market is still there, but I don't agree that these alternate platforms don't pose a risk to the long-term strategy Nintendo holds.

Probably one of the reasons why the Music and Video sectors are doing so well despite youtube are because of circumstance, where a few companies jumped into the Netosphere offering services such as iTunes and NetFlix. Without these the sectors may have been suffering much more.

Add to that the fact that youtube only sports 10min movies, most people prefer the full lenth feature, and prefer purchasing it.

@bejeweled. These games existed of course since 2000, I mentioned that. But with the iPod Touch a whole new series of much higher graphical quality emerged (Flight Control), and games like Bejewelled also benefitted from Apples' marketing measures (app store).



oniyide on 04 March 2012
happydolphin said:
oniyide said:

Wrong, those people are barely serious hobbyists.  I have a smart phone and I still carry my DSand Or PSP with me. You know why?? Because those phone/tablet/FB games suck, or at the very least dont even offer the types of games that the dedicated portables or home consoles do. I looking at the sales of 3DS and PSV to a lesser extent. reckon their are millions of people that think like me. As long as we dont "conclude" that we have all we NEED on those other devices. Ninty will be just fine.  Im not saying that those smartphone games have not had an effect, but people are losing it. Its not that serious

I wasn't talking about the hobbyists. I was talking about the mainstream and casual.

I think Ninty knows that their Brain Age type of games will be affected. Which is why they probably  went the "core" route with the 3DS, IMHO.  How can they mitigate??? By making an online store that MIGHT be as good as the App store. If Sony and MS couldnt make a dent in Apple, what makes you think Ninty can do it. ANd keep in mind, those two companies actual know what the hell they are doing when it comes to online. They are smart, they are playing their roles, Ninty needs to do the same.  The only way they can mitigate is to make an actual phone to go against the iphone, that would be suicide. Or make an actual tablet and no the WIii U controller is not an actual tablet it has less functionality than the crappy tablets out there, you cant even take it with you

I don't disagree with you. I don't know how they would mitigate and am not offering any solutions. TBH I think HappyS' solutions were the most interesting thus far.

I'm just saying there is either no mitigation solution, or there is one but the question is "what is it"?

Ultimately, and of course, this applies to the very casual side of Nintendo's business (Brain Age, Nintendogs, Animal Crossing).

Here are a few I highlighted from the top 66 DS games. There are 39 titles (60%) and they total 181.68M SW sales (of 348.06M, 52% sales) :

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
2 Nintendogs DS 2005 Simulation Nintendo 9.01 10.70 1.93 2.71 24.36
4 Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day DS 2005 Misc Nintendo 4.71 9.04 4.16 2.03 19.94
6 Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day DS 2005 Misc Nintendo 3.40 5.30 5.32 1.18 15.20
8 Animal Crossing: Wild World DS 2005 Simulation Nintendo 2.42 3.16 5.33 0.82 11.73
11 Mario Party DS DS 2007 Misc Nintendo 4.13 1.66 1.98 0.67 8.44
13 Big Brain Academy DS 2005 Misc Nintendo 1.64 2.67 1.60 0.61 6.53
15 Cooking Mama DS 2006 Simulation 505 Games 2.81 1.86 0.07 0.56 5.30
16 Professor Layton and the Curious Village DS 2007 Adventure Nintendo 1.18 2.28 1.03 0.50 4.99
17 Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games DS 2008 Sports Sega 1.61 2.35 0.44 0.56 4.96
21 Flash Focus: Vision Training in Minutes a Day DS 2007 Misc Nintendo 0.85 1.52 1.05 0.35 3.77
22 Professor Layton and the Diabolical Box DS 2007 Adventure Nintendo 0.71 1.77 0.92 0.37 3.77
23 Tomodachi Collection DS 2009 Misc Nintendo 0.00 0.00 3.67 0.00 3.67
25 MySims DS 2007 Simulation Electronic Arts 1.57 1.55 0.08 0.40 3.60
26 Cooking Mama 2: Dinner With Friends DS 2007 Simulation 505 Games 1.52 1.45 0.10 0.39 3.46
27 Guitar Hero: On Tour DS 2008 Misc Activision 2.07 0.99 0.01 0.34 3.41
28 Clubhouse Games DS 2006 Misc Nintendo 0.57 1.70 0.73 0.34 3.34
29 English Training: Have Fun Improving Your Skills! DS 2006 Misc Nintendo 0.00 0.99 2.32 0.02 3.33
30 Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games DS 2009 Sports Sega 1.17 1.45 0.27 0.35 3.24
31 Personal Trainer: Cooking DS 2006 Misc Nintendo 0.85 1.01 1.03 0.17 3.06
34 Rhythm Heaven DS 2008 Misc Nintendo 0.44 0.47 1.93 0.12 2.97
35 Club Penguin: Elite Penguin Force DS 2008 Adventure Disney Interactive Studios 1.74 0.93 0.00 0.29 2.96
36 Professor Layton and the Unwound Future DS 2008 Adventure Nintendo 0.43 1.37 0.82 0.26 2.88
38 Imagine: Babyz DS 2007 Simulation Ubisoft 1.28 1.25 0.00 0.31 2.83
39 Imagine: Fashion Designer DS 2007 Simulation Ubisoft 1.31 1.18 0.00 0.30 2.79
41 Hannah Montana DS 2006 Action Disney Interactive Studios 1.58 0.79 0.00 0.26 2.63
43 Style Savvy DS 2008 Simulation Nintendo 0.54 0.70 0.96 0.16 2.37
44 Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Mini-Land Mayhem! DS 2010 Puzzle Nintendo 1.41 0.42 0.35 0.19 2.36
45 Art Academy DS 2010 Misc Nintendo 0.22 1.50 0.33 0.26 2.31
46 WarioWare Touched! DS 2004 Puzzle Nintendo 0.50 0.43 1.21 0.13 2.26
49 Professor Layton and the Last Specter DS 2009 Adventure Nintendo 0.17 1.11 0.68 0.20 2.15
51 Tetris DS DS 2006 Puzzle Nintendo 0.62 0.01 1.35 0.07 2.05
52 LEGO Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures DS 2008 Adventure Activision 1.29 0.55 0.00 0.20 2.03
53 The Sims 2: Pets DS 2006 Simulation Electronic Arts 0.91 0.91 0.00 0.22 2.03
56 TouchMaster DS 2007 Puzzle Midway Games 0.46 1.25 0.00 0.24 1.95
58 Kirby Squeak Squad DS 2006 Platform Nintendo 0.77 0.01 1.05 0.08 1.90
59 Carnival Games DS 2008 Misc Take-Two Interactive 1.09 0.60 0.00 0.19 1.88
60 Scribblenauts DS 2009 Puzzle Warner Bros. Interactive 1.42 0.25 0.02 0.16 1.85
63 Kanshuu Nippon Joushikiryoku Kentei Kyoukai: Imasara Hito ni wa Kikenai Otona no Joushikiryoku Training DS DS 2006 Misc Nintendo 0.00 0.00 1.71 0.00 1.71
66 Imagine: Teacher DS 2008 Simulation Ubisoft 0.67 0.81 0.00 0.19 1.67


If we are talking strictly casual audience, then yeah. Thats probably why they pushed the 3DS as a core machine, getting ready for that audience to go on to smartphones?? Possibly.  I dont thin they need to mitigate to be honest and I dont think they can. Unless they are willing to really switch up their strategy.  If they really wanted to combat the Iphone and such, they would need a phone. They want to combat tablets, they need tables. Lets keep it real, no one is going to look at Wii U and think that is a tablet of quality, not people who know better anyway.



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NintendoPie on 04 March 2012

It might be smart... probably won't be though. Nintendo isn't Apple. Apple isn't Nintendo. The consumers for Apple will rip their eyes off of their Retina Displays glance at the Wii U go, "Eh." and go back to staring/playing their iPhone's, iPod Touch's, and iPad's. The Nintendo consumers most likely won't care either way; if they add an App Store, "Cool." if they don't, "Meh."



happydolphin on 04 March 2012
RolStoppable said:

1) http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/111028qa/03.html

It's Q9, too long to post everything here.

Since home consoles and handhelds haven't been negatively affected by the PC, phones etc. before, the burden of proof lies ultimately on the people who insist that such an effect exists now. All you and everyone else is doing is showing growth of social games and apps with no direct correlation to spending and playing habits on home consoles and handhelds.

 

All I'm saying is common sense. Time played on alternative platforms is time played elsewhere than on a dedicated platform. With more and more people buying Apple and Android products, and playing Facebook games, the trend will only grow.

The only way Nintendo's numbers stay the same is if 1) Nintendo's base does not grow, and 2) Gamers on both platforms just play much much more.

Also keep in mind those numbers are percentages. The FB numbers I gave you go to show how much more time is actually spent on alternate platforms than on dedicated platforms.

 

2) I didn't say that third parties are threatened, what makes you think that? I said that Nintendo is only threatened in the sense of analysts portraying smartphones as the way to go for game developers.

b) But third parties always see better opportunities on non-Nintendo platforms anyway. So what else is new?

If Nintendo didn't think 3rd parties saw opportunity on those platforms at the expense of Nintendo dedicated console support, they would have never made the sermon at GDC 2011.

@b. One simply cannot properly run a business with such a view. If the 3rd party trend is leaning towards trust due to Nintendo's upward position in the market, why spoil that by not addressing 3rd parties who see opportunity elsewhere. You want to put all odds on your side.

3) The burden of proof is on you. You need to prove that handhelds are suffering because of smartphones and tablets. Perhaps I should say that the 3DS is cutting into laptop sales, because 3DS sales have gone up while laptop sales have gone down. After all, you can browse the internet with the 3DS and send messages to other people.

You said the kids who bought it bought it for use as a phone. I disagreed with common sense. There is no burden of proof. As for whether or not they do that at the expense of 3/DS gaming is the next question. For that, I would say, time spent on the iPhone is time not spent on the DS line. The ultimate question remains, since trends show equal playtime on dedicated consoles, and with the obvious fact of overlap, are kids just playing so much more? Maybe.



happydolphin on 04 March 2012
oniyide said:

If we are talking strictly casual audience, then yeah. Thats probably why they pushed the 3DS as a core machine, getting ready for that audience to go on to smartphones?? Possibly.  I dont thin they need to mitigate to be honest and I dont think they can. Unless they are willing to really switch up their strategy.  If they really wanted to combat the Iphone and such, they would need a phone. They want to combat tablets, they need tables. Lets keep it real, no one is going to look at Wii U and think that is a tablet of quality, not people who know better anyway.

Truth is, whether some her like it or not, Nintendo is mitigating. From Rol's kind link:

"Accordingly, as long as the Nintendo 3DS can offer gaming experiences that can not be realized on smartphones, and if they are attractive enough, we can ask our consumers to purchase the Nintendo 3DS. The important thing for us is to make these proposals by taking advantage of our position of being able to make unique offers based upon the integration of both hardware and software as we are making both."



oniyide on 04 March 2012
happydolphin said:
oniyide said:

If we are talking strictly casual audience, then yeah. Thats probably why they pushed the 3DS as a core machine, getting ready for that audience to go on to smartphones?? Possibly.  I dont thin they need to mitigate to be honest and I dont think they can. Unless they are willing to really switch up their strategy.  If they really wanted to combat the Iphone and such, they would need a phone. They want to combat tablets, they need tables. Lets keep it real, no one is going to look at Wii U and think that is a tablet of quality, not people who know better anyway.

Truth is, whether some her like it or not, Nintendo is mitigating. From Rol's kind link:

"Accordingly, as long as the Nintendo 3DS can offer gaming experiences that can not be realized on smartphones, and if they are attractive enough, we can ask our consumers to purchase the Nintendo 3DS. The important thing for us is to make these proposals by taking advantage of our position of being able to make unique offers based upon the integration of both hardware and software as we are making both."

Im sorry, but i dont see the mitigation. I dont think adding an eshop to thier Wii U and 3DS is mitigating, its just common sense and a natural step forward in video game tech. SONY and MS did that years ago but nobody said they were mitigating then.  If the smartphone games were not as popular as they were dont you think that NInty would still make an eShop type deal for their future hardware?? I think yes, they would have too to combat PSN/LIVE. Hell they already had something like it in place with WiiWare.

IMHO i think that Ninty knows it might not be able to get away with charging 3--40 dollars for games like cooking mama and Brain Training, when the smartphones and even Sony and MS's own online stores carry games like it for cheaper. People will wise up and the only thing Ninty can and should do is just follow MS' lead when it comes to online.



happydolphin on 04 March 2012
RolStoppable said:
happydolphin said:

1) All I'm saying is common sense. Time played on alternative platforms is time played elsewhere than on a dedicated platform. With more and more people buying Apple and Android products, and playing Facebook games, the trend will only grow.

The only way Nintendo's numbers stay the same is if 1) Nintendo's base does not grow, and 2) Gamers on both platforms just play much much more.

Also keep in mind those numbers are percentages. The FB numbers I gave you go to show how much more time is actually spent on alternate platforms than on dedicated platforms.

 

2) If Nintendo didn't think 3rd parties saw opportunity on those platforms at the expense of Nintendo dedicated console support, they would have never made the sermon at GDC 2011.

@b. One simply cannot properly run a business with such a view. If the 3rd party trend is leaning towards trust due to Nintendo's upward position in the market, why spoil that by not addressing 3rd parties who see opportunity elsewhere. You want to put all odds on your side.

3) You said the kids who bought it bought it for use as a phone. I disagreed with common sense. There is no burden of proof. As for whether or not they do that at the expense of 3/DS gaming is the next question. For that, I would say, time spent on the iPhone is time not spent on the DS line. The ultimate question remains, since trends show equal playtime on dedicated consoles, and with the obvious fact of overlap, are kids just playing so much more? Maybe.

1) The number of Facebook gamers exceeds the number of Nintendo system owners, so we are looking at quite a large number of people who might not own a Nintendo system at all; or even a dedicated gaming system for that matter.

As long as no numbers are shown that prove a direct correlation, I will continue to believe that there is no correlation.

2) I can only reiterate: Something that is believed to exist doesn't mean that it actually exists. If third parties believe that Nessie exists, then by all means, they should head to Scotland. Nintendo stating that Nessie is only a fairy tale won't convince them and neither does it mean that Nessie exists.

3) Smartphones and tablets aren't a threat to dedicated gaming systems. That's common sense, yet here I am and have to argue about the same old nonsense.


1) But we may be looking at a very large Number of people who own a Nintendo system, and play Facebook games. That is the point. Such gamers may end up saying, "I have all I need on Facebook and my new iPhone/iPad/iPod/android".

None of us have numbers, so nobody will budge. Sadly, common sense says most people who own a DS/Wii also own a smartphone/tablet. But you won't accept that. Agree to disagree :S

2) The fact that you say it's Nessie doesn't prove anything, nor does it make it Nessie. I'll just leave it at that.

3) You still fail to explain why these kids wanted one, where I've used common sense to tell you they bought it for the games, music and movies (i.e. multimedia). Hence you remain nonsensical.