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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: "Wii U won't save Nintendo, phones took 35% of the market"

mike_intellivision on 27 February 2012
Squilliam said:
mike_intellivision said:
Squilliam said:
RolStoppable said:
Squilliam said:

What is exactly misleading here? I remember you didn't question pie charts when it was Nintendo Wii vs PS3 and Xbox 360 in total sales revenue. The pie chart is only questionable when it shows something that doesn't sit well with you? Anyway it is unlikely that a total revenue figure is going to be released unless Apple themselves decides to release one. I haven't seen anyone question the selling power of Steam, yet once more no total revenue figure is forthcoming.

If Nintendos losses are rooted in releasing an expensive hardware feature which doesn't pay for itself then that is their problem. It sounds a lot like the losses Sony incurred with the PS3 Blu Ray drive, I.E. big losses for little gain and in the end sales were determined by other factors. They didn't release a feature like that because they wanted to impress us with their technology, they wanted to make a handheld console with a gameplay feature which cannot be copied by iOS devices. Their new home console Wii U incorporates some of the tablet features of iOS devices, is this a coincidence?

Already got the revenue numbers which are as follows for the DS and PSP combined in 2009, 2010, 2011 (in billions): $2.2, $1.6, $1.4. DS and PSP declined at similar rates, so their respective share of these numbers is basically the same each year. These numbers don't show any unusual decline for video game systems that went into their fifth (2010) and sixth (2011) year. Therefore smartphones didn't have an impact on Nintendo's business.

No need to set up a strawman argument. I would have questioned pie charts for Wii vs. 360 vs. PS3 software revenue or total sales revenue all the same, because unit sales are a much more important metric. Since Wii games go for a lower price, percentage of revenue would put the Wii at a disadvantage in such a comparison.

And yes, Nintendo's hardware is their problem, caused by themselves. Not by Apple or any other smartphone manufacturer.

DS revenue = $1.89B 2009, $1.4B 2010, $1.2B 2011.

iOS game revenue (using typical 6:1 ratio with Android) = ~$1.6B 2011.

Suddenly some other handheld device has more gaming revenue than Nintendo and it's no big deal? I have a few HD console sales = whole console gaming market threads I want to sell you then.

Can I ask a dumb question ... What is the "typical 6;1 ratio with Android"?

Has there been some research on what Android users buy? Or are people using an estimated attach rate?

I am trying to learn here, not trying to be critical (at this time).

Mike from Morgantown

This: http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/why-eric-schmidts-prediction-about-android-vs-ios-development-dead-wrong


Where did the $1.6B for games in 2011 come from?

Apple has distributed $3.5B to all developers total and that appears to be LTD.

 

Mike from Morgantown 



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

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leper-apostle on 27 February 2012
archbrix said:
Squilliam said:
Nintendo's luck ran out. Simply the same reason why Sony fell as well, there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market and a large part of the great success they both had previously is simply good fortune.

Wrong, except for, "there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market".

Nintendo's dominance in the handheld market has been due to appealing to what the market wanted.

Sony fell because of a chain of bad decisions.

Microsoft excelled because of a chain of great decisions.

Almost nothing to do with luck in all cases...

Sony fell? 80 million and 35% market share their first try = falling? LOL.

 

The writing is on the wall for N, people won't admit it but it is, we'll see in a few years, pachter is not the only one seeing it.

 

 

Nintendo lost core gamers ages ago, releasing the wii-u wont change that, those people will just play on their ps3's and xbox's until ps4 and Xbox 720 come out. 



archbrix on 27 February 2012
leper-apostle said:
archbrix said:
Squilliam said:
Nintendo's luck ran out. Simply the same reason why Sony fell as well, there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market and a large part of the great success they both had previously is simply good fortune.

Wrong, except for, "there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market".

Nintendo's dominance in the handheld market has been due to appealing to what the market wanted.

Sony fell because of a chain of bad decisions.

Microsoft excelled because of a chain of great decisions.

Almost nothing to do with luck in all cases...

Sony fell? 80 million and 35% market share their first try = falling? LOL.

 

The writing is on the wall for N, people won't admit it but it is, we'll see in a few years, pachter is not the only one seeing it.

 

 

Nintendo lost core gamers ages ago, releasing the wii-u wont change that, those people will just play on their ps3's and xbox's until ps4 and Xbox 720 come out. 

The fact that Squilliam used the term "fell" (as in, failed to accomplish what they had prior) and referred to consoles as well, lead me to assume that he was talking about the PS3; in which they did fall.  Hard.

Lol, which writing would that be?  Pachter's nonsense or the fact that 3DS broke sales records at a time where smartphones are at their most prevalent to date?



leper-apostle on 27 February 2012
archbrix said:
leper-apostle said:
archbrix said:
Squilliam said:
Nintendo's luck ran out. Simply the same reason why Sony fell as well, there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market and a large part of the great success they both had previously is simply good fortune.

Wrong, except for, "there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market".

Nintendo's dominance in the handheld market has been due to appealing to what the market wanted.

Sony fell because of a chain of bad decisions.

Microsoft excelled because of a chain of great decisions.

Almost nothing to do with luck in all cases...

Sony fell? 80 million and 35% market share their first try = falling? LOL.

 

The writing is on the wall for N, people won't admit it but it is, we'll see in a few years, pachter is not the only one seeing it.

 

 

Nintendo lost core gamers ages ago, releasing the wii-u wont change that, those people will just play on their ps3's and xbox's until ps4 and Xbox 720 come out. 

The fact that Squilliam used the term "fell" (as in, failed to accomplish what they had prior) and referred to consoles as well, lead me to assume that he was talking about the PS3; in which they did fall.  Hard.

Lol, which writing would that be?  Pachter's nonsense or the fact that 3DS broke sales records at a time where smartphones are at their most prevalent to date?


The ps3 hardly fell, it was a major factor in bluray winning the format war, and has sold faster then the xbox 360, it just launched later.



HappySqurriel on 27 February 2012
leper-apostle said:
archbrix said:
leper-apostle said:
archbrix said:
Squilliam said:
Nintendo's luck ran out. Simply the same reason why Sony fell as well, there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market and a large part of the great success they both had previously is simply good fortune.

Wrong, except for, "there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market".

Nintendo's dominance in the handheld market has been due to appealing to what the market wanted.

Sony fell because of a chain of bad decisions.

Microsoft excelled because of a chain of great decisions.

Almost nothing to do with luck in all cases...

Sony fell? 80 million and 35% market share their first try = falling? LOL.

 

The writing is on the wall for N, people won't admit it but it is, we'll see in a few years, pachter is not the only one seeing it.

 

 

Nintendo lost core gamers ages ago, releasing the wii-u wont change that, those people will just play on their ps3's and xbox's until ps4 and Xbox 720 come out. 

The fact that Squilliam used the term "fell" (as in, failed to accomplish what they had prior) and referred to consoles as well, lead me to assume that he was talking about the PS3; in which they did fall.  Hard.

Lol, which writing would that be?  Pachter's nonsense or the fact that 3DS broke sales records at a time where smartphones are at their most prevalent to date?


The ps3 hardly fell, it was a major factor in bluray winning the format war, and has sold faster then the xbox 360, it just launched later.

... and if Sony is really lucky, they might end this generation with only losing 40% of their marketshare.



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leper-apostle on 27 February 2012
HappySqurriel said:
leper-apostle said:
archbrix said:
leper-apostle said:
archbrix said:
Squilliam said:
Nintendo's luck ran out. Simply the same reason why Sony fell as well, there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market and a large part of the great success they both had previously is simply good fortune.

Wrong, except for, "there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market".

Nintendo's dominance in the handheld market has been due to appealing to what the market wanted.

Sony fell because of a chain of bad decisions.

Microsoft excelled because of a chain of great decisions.

Almost nothing to do with luck in all cases...

Sony fell? 80 million and 35% market share their first try = falling? LOL.

 

The writing is on the wall for N, people won't admit it but it is, we'll see in a few years, pachter is not the only one seeing it.

 

 

Nintendo lost core gamers ages ago, releasing the wii-u wont change that, those people will just play on their ps3's and xbox's until ps4 and Xbox 720 come out. 

The fact that Squilliam used the term "fell" (as in, failed to accomplish what they had prior) and referred to consoles as well, lead me to assume that he was talking about the PS3; in which they did fall.  Hard.

Lol, which writing would that be?  Pachter's nonsense or the fact that 3DS broke sales records at a time where smartphones are at their most prevalent to date?


The ps3 hardly fell, it was a major factor in bluray winning the format war, and has sold faster then the xbox 360, it just launched later.

... and if Sony is really lucky, they might end this generation with only losing 40% of their marketshare.

One gen has ZERo to do with the next Ask the N64.. Sony put their bets on Bluray and it cost them market share and missing the holiday season its first year., sony is more then a games company.....



Ail on 27 February 2012

Most of you forget that Patcher is first and foremost a stock analyst.

His only job is to provide good stock recommandations...

Criticizing Nintendo and getting out of it is probably the best stock recommandations that was ever made half way through his gen.( missing the original boom was bad, but when you look at the flop that followed on the stock market, being out of Nintendo for the whole gen wasn't such a bad move..)

The whole gen he has been behind Activision too and that was a good stock pick too...

Stop looking at his recommandations through your fan eyes and you will see things differently.

If most of you fans had put all your money in Nintendo 4 years ago when you kept arguing it was the best gaming company in the world, most of you would be living in the street right now.........

From a financial point of view, I totally agree with him, getting into Nintendo right now, even at the current low price is a huge risk....

If you disagree with him, go buy Nintendo stock and we'll see 4 years from now, who is right and who is wrong...

 

Right now, whatever your console is ( and I am a PS3 fan), the stock to be in is Microsoft, not Sony or Nintendo. 

 

PS : and stop already with the third party conspiracy. It's your job as a hardware maker to ensure people develop for your hardware, if they don't , you did something wrong, not them.  It's like blaming every software company when noone was developing for the Mac in the 90s...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

HappySqurriel on 27 February 2012
leper-apostle said:

One gen has ZERo to do with the next Ask the N64.. Sony put their bets on Bluray and it cost them market share and missing the holiday season its first year., sony is more then a games company.....


One generation has a ton to do with the next ...

People buy a console early on based almost entirely on expectations which are heavily influenced by how the console manufacturer did in the previous generation. One of the core reasons why Sega was so unsuccessful with the Dreamcast was because of the damage done with the Sega Saturn, Sega CD and 32X.

With the PS3 in particular, the primary reason it performed so well was because of Sony's track record with the PS2. Had Microsoft released a system that was identical to the PS3, and Sony released a system that was identical to the XBox 360, it is highly likely that Microsoft's system would have flopped while Sony would be competitive with the Wii for the best selling system this generation.



Solid-Stark on 27 February 2012

Can't see OP but this guy amuses me with his nonsense (judging from title)



e=mc^2

Gaming on: PS4 Pro, Switch, SNES Mini, Wii U, PC (i5-7400, GTX 1060)

archbrix on 27 February 2012
leper-apostle said:
archbrix said:
leper-apostle said:
archbrix said:
Squilliam said:
Nintendo's luck ran out. Simply the same reason why Sony fell as well, there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market and a large part of the great success they both had previously is simply good fortune.

Wrong, except for, "there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market".

Nintendo's dominance in the handheld market has been due to appealing to what the market wanted.

Sony fell because of a chain of bad decisions.

Microsoft excelled because of a chain of great decisions.

Almost nothing to do with luck in all cases...

Sony fell? 80 million and 35% market share their first try = falling? LOL.

 

The writing is on the wall for N, people won't admit it but it is, we'll see in a few years, pachter is not the only one seeing it.

 

 

Nintendo lost core gamers ages ago, releasing the wii-u wont change that, those people will just play on their ps3's and xbox's until ps4 and Xbox 720 come out. 

The fact that Squilliam used the term "fell" (as in, failed to accomplish what they had prior) and referred to consoles as well, lead me to assume that he was talking about the PS3; in which they did fall.  Hard.

Lol, which writing would that be?  Pachter's nonsense or the fact that 3DS broke sales records at a time where smartphones are at their most prevalent to date?


The ps3 hardly fell, it was a major factor in bluray winning the format war, and has sold faster then the xbox 360, it just launched later.

The statement wasn't that the PS3 fell; it was that Sony fell with the PS3.  They've lost BILLIONS this gen, tons of marketshare and the console's sales pale in comparison to its predecessor.

And the PS3 was hardly the key integral factor of blu-ray's success.  That would be the fact that every single major movie studio except Universal was going with blu-ray, many (such as 20th Century Fox, Disney, etc) exclusively.