By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: "Wii U won't save Nintendo, phones took 35% of the market"

mike_intellivision on 27 February 2012
Train wreck said:
mike_intellivision said:
One thing that is being lost with the percentage talk or a sudden surge in iOS devices is that many time people are buying REPLACEMENTS. Most people update their smart phones every 18-24 months. That means they constantly move hardware. But some people treat these replacements as new users. That overstates the market. Also, many people buy them for work and not for gaming. Some have game machines while others were and are never going to buy game machines.

Pachter's statements seem to be especially and increasingly anti-Nintendo. There are some analysts (e.g., Motley Fool) who have upgraded Nintendo to a buy because of the 3DS and WiiU. Meanwhile, Pachter reminds me of a previous favorite among Nintendo Fans -- Sean Malstrom -- who seems to think he has a better idea of the direction Nintendo should take than those running the company do and is highly offended that his ideas are not being followed.

Mike from Morgantown


The motley fool, really? LOL ok...

Just citing one source to show not everyone agrees with Pachter's "Nintendo is doomed" analysis.  There are those who do, often for similar reasons. It is my contention that they often look at the numbers but do not know what they truly mean.  I do not have any special information or insight wherein I can say that Pacther is trying to artifically change the market through his statements to better his clients.  That being said, I doubt I would want to do business with his firm because Pachter seems more about getting PR than about getting it right.

 

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV
Around the Network
Squilliam on 27 February 2012
RolStoppable said:
Squilliam said:

What is exactly misleading here? I remember you didn't question pie charts when it was Nintendo Wii vs PS3 and Xbox 360 in total sales revenue. The pie chart is only questionable when it shows something that doesn't sit well with you? Anyway it is unlikely that a total revenue figure is going to be released unless Apple themselves decides to release one. I haven't seen anyone question the selling power of Steam, yet once more no total revenue figure is forthcoming.

If Nintendos losses are rooted in releasing an expensive hardware feature which doesn't pay for itself then that is their problem. It sounds a lot like the losses Sony incurred with the PS3 Blu Ray drive, I.E. big losses for little gain and in the end sales were determined by other factors. They didn't release a feature like that because they wanted to impress us with their technology, they wanted to make a handheld console with a gameplay feature which cannot be copied by iOS devices. Their new home console Wii U incorporates some of the tablet features of iOS devices, is this a coincidence?

Already got the revenue numbers which are as follows for the DS and PSP combined in 2009, 2010, 2011 (in billions): $2.2, $1.6, $1.4. DS and PSP declined at similar rates, so their respective share of these numbers is basically the same each year. These numbers don't show any unusual decline for video game systems that went into their fifth (2010) and sixth (2011) year. Therefore smartphones didn't have an impact on Nintendo's business.

No need to set up a strawman argument. I would have questioned pie charts for Wii vs. 360 vs. PS3 software revenue or total sales revenue all the same, because unit sales are a much more important metric. Since Wii games go for a lower price, percentage of revenue would put the Wii at a disadvantage in such a comparison.

And yes, Nintendo's hardware is their problem, caused by themselves. Not by Apple or any other smartphone manufacturer.

DS revenue = $1.89B 2009, $1.4B 2010, $1.2B 2011.

iOS game revenue (using typical 6:1 ratio with Android) = ~$1.6B 2011.

Suddenly some other handheld device has more gaming revenue than Nintendo and it's no big deal? I have a few HD console sales = whole console gaming market threads I want to sell you then.



Tease.

UncleScrooge on 27 February 2012
Squilliam said:
UncleScrooge said:
Squilliam said:

Nintendo had the same problem as before with PS1 vs N64, I.E. whilst the value of their game development is much higher than any one single company and few approach their ability to rack out hit after hit, the number of developers out there outweigh them through sheer numbers. There are litterally thousands of projects for iOS ongoing and through luck or skill some will rise to the top.

Value has a lot of different dimensions, LOL if you've been on this site long enough you'd have seen all the threads saying the PS3 is better value than the Xbox 360 because of X, Y, Z. You have to consider with iOS many different factors such as:

  • Price of games, $0-10 vs $20-35, the average person spends more on games than their games machine.
  • Usefulness of other features, I.E. browser, movies, music.
  • Price of hardware $subsidised, $169 iTouch or $499 iPad.
  • Educational value for families, I.E get an iPad 2 because Johny won't have to lug 14lbs of textbooks anymore and can study easier. 
  • Is a game like Soduku worth $1 or $20? It isn't as if you get a better soduku if you pay 20* the price either...

In the end it is complicated and simple at the same time. There are many overlapping dimensions between the products, the enemy of the good in this case is good enough. It is far easier to justify owning a handheld gaming machine when you don't already own something with significant overlapping functionality whether it is a tablet, iTouch or smartphone you own. There is already data suggesting that parents are indeed buying their children iPhones, iTouches and iPads for various reasons and lets not miss one major feature which is that all games bought for one child are immediately and always available to the other so long as they both have iOS devices.


I agree with everything you've said. I also agree this would have an effect on Nintendo's sales but again my main point was the bolded part in my post. As for the bolded part in your post: Why are you acting like the eShop didn't exist? Of course games on the eShop are still more expensive but not by law. Again if Nintendo actually cared about these customers they would push the eShop more agressively (like make it open to really small developers just as on iOS). And as for other features  (internet and learning): Yeah, that's why consoles died in the 80's when computer adoption rates went up.

Here is my main point again: Nintendo doesn't try to appeal to the mass market anymore. They keep talking about core gamers, released their handheld at a high price and didn't put out mass market software. 5 years ago Nintendo's main mission was to grow the market and they succeeded with their handheld sales doubling and their console sales multiplying by a factor of 5. They grew at a speed that rivals Apple's current growth but they were not able to maintain it because they stopped focusing on growth. 

Basically put a Nintendo releasing a "2DS" at $149 with a focus on mass market games like Brain Age, Super Mario, social games and e-learning would see way higher sales. Would smartphones eat into those sales? Certainly. Would Nintendo be in trouble right now? Probably not because there was still some potential for growth. I guess sales would've stayed roughly the same (add growth potential, substract smartphones). 

That argument simply doesn't make sense. You're acting as if a customer is Nintendo's for life and so long as they cater to them they will never find a competitors offering more compelling. So you'd have also argued that had Sony released a $299 PS3 which had the same values as the old PS2 that Nintendo would have never had much success because Sony would have therefore catered exactly to their old market as they had many times before? An incumbent is only ever self defeating? So all that talk of disruption and blue ocean was simply trying to make a good story out of Nintendo's success?

You also seem to be arguing that it is just iPhone vs DS, not iOS which has a range of devices just as Nintendo has a range of DS variants.

Holy cow, no! I'm saying the exact opposite! Nintendo are the ones acting like that and I'm on a record criticising them for it. You have to compete for these customers - obviously. Did you totally overread the part where I said smartphones are eating into that market? Again I don't disagree here. But Nintendo doesn't even want to compete because they feel they are too awesome to appeal to the mass market or something.

I said if Nintendo competed for that huge market their sales would be way better. Do you agree or not? I hope so because otherwise you would be the one acting like a customer is Apple's for life...

And that last sentence: ...No? I think it's pretty mind boggling actually that people always argue about smartphones even though the iPod Touch is actually marketed as a gaming device by Apple. 

Edit: You have to stop assuming me and others are trying to defend Nintendo. We are doing quite the opposite.



UncleScrooge on 27 February 2012
Squilliam said:
RolStoppable said:

Already got the revenue numbers which are as follows for the DS and PSP combined in 2009, 2010, 2011 (in billions): $2.2, $1.6, $1.4. DS and PSP declined at similar rates, so their respective share of these numbers is basically the same each year. These numbers don't show any unusual decline for video game systems that went into their fifth (2010) and sixth (2011) year. Therefore smartphones didn't have an impact on Nintendo's business.

No need to set up a strawman argument. I would have questioned pie charts for Wii vs. 360 vs. PS3 software revenue or total sales revenue all the same, because unit sales are a much more important metric. Since Wii games go for a lower price, percentage of revenue would put the Wii at a disadvantage in such a comparison.

And yes, Nintendo's hardware is their problem, caused by themselves. Not by Apple or any other smartphone manufacturer.

DS revenue = $1.89B 2009, $1.4B 2010, $1.2B 2011.

iOS game revenue (using typical 6:1 ratio with Android) = ~$1.6B 2011.

Suddenly some other handheld device has more gaming revenue than Nintendo and it's no big deal? I have a few HD console sales = whole console gaming market threads I want to sell you then.


You continue to post numbers but where is the proof these are actually connected? I can give you some nice "pirates are the reason for climate change" charts if you want (I actually can. My statistics prof collects that stuff like trading cards or something xD) And I think these numbers are very worrying just for different reasons.

What about Wii sales? Did the Wii also get killed by smartphones? Or maybe - just maybe - it was killed by Nintendo being unable to produce more mass market titles and focusing on the "hardcore" 3DS? No that can't be true... silly me.



HappySqurriel on 27 February 2012
mike_intellivision said:
One thing that is being lost with the percentage talk or a sudden surge in iOS devices is that many time people are buying REPLACEMENTS. Most people update their smart phones every 18-24 months. That means they constantly move hardware. But some people treat these replacements as new users. That overstates the market. Also, many people buy them for work and not for gaming. Some have game machines while others were and are never going to buy game machines.

Pachter's statements seem to be especially and increasingly anti-Nintendo. There are some analysts (e.g., Motley Fool) who have upgraded Nintendo to a buy because of the 3DS and WiiU. Meanwhile, Pachter reminds me of a previous favorite among Nintendo Fans -- Sean Malstrom -- who seems to think he has a better idea of the direction Nintendo should take than those running the company do and is highly offended that his ideas are not being followed.

Mike from Morgantown

I agree with what you're saying ... As an analogy, the analysis that is being done on Nintendo's performance is similar to claiming that an increase in sales of chocolate bars will translate into a significant decline in the sales of meat and potatoes because people couldn't possibly want to eat snacks and dinner.

While there is a theoritical threat from devices like tablets and phones, I haven't seen these devices having much success in moving towards being in direct competition with handhelds. As much as their is value in touch controlls, they can't act as a replacement for analogue sticks and buttons in many more in-depth games; and more viable gaming devices haven't been too successful on the market.

 

On a side note, I think this is where Sony had the potential to really be successful. Had they never bothered with the xperia play and created a 5 to 7 inch android tablet with conventional controls and a SD-Card like memory cartridge I think they could have become the "Tablet for real gamers" ...  While $300 is a lot for a dedicated gaming system, I think people would have seen it as a bargain for a decent gaming tablet.



Around the Network
Squilliam on 27 February 2012
UncleScrooge said:

Holy cow, no! I'm saying the exact opposite! Nintendo are the ones acting like that and I'm on a record criticising them for it. You have to compete for these customers - obviously. Did you totally overread the part where I said smartphones are eating into that market? Again I don't disagree here. But Nintendo doesn't even want to compete because they feel they are too awesome to appeal to the mass market or something.

I said if Nintendo competed for that huge market their sales would be way better. Do you agree or not? I hope so because otherwise you would be the one acting like a customer is Apple's for life...

And that last sentence: ...No? I think it's pretty mind boggling actually that people always argue about smartphones even though the iPod Touch is actually marketed as a gaming device by Apple. 

Edit: You have to stop assuming me and others are trying to defend Nintendo. We are doing quite the opposite.

Actually what I'm saying is that you can't expect perfect performance from any company all the time. You can't simply say that Nintendo are losing X market and therefore it is all their fault, you have to also take into consideration the good performance of rivals. It is the exact same thing as not blaming Sony entirely for the better performance of Microsoft and especially Nintendo in the current generation, to do so would be disrespectful of Sony in that case and of Nintendo and Microsoft. Credit is due wherever you find good performance, so you can't absolutely say that Nintendo alone are 100% responsible for Nintendos performance. You have to take wider considerations into account.

UncleScrooge said:


You continue to post numbers but where is the proof these are actually connected? I can give you some nice "pirates are the reason for climate change" charts if you want (I actually can. My statistics prof collects that stuff like trading cards or something xD) And I think these numbers are very worrying just for different reasons.

What about Wii sales? Did the Wii also get killed by smartphones? Or maybe - just maybe - it was killed by Nintendo being unable to produce more mass market titles and focusing on the "hardcore" 3DS? No that can't be true... silly me.

Climate is a bad example as there are too many variables to consider such as the various natural climatic cycles. If in an expanding market one player remains stagnant or shrinks then you can give a strong argument that the increasing sales of a competitor have something to do with it. So whilst climate science is 9x% certain, you'd be picking at threads to argue a strong case against it.

RolStoppable said:

Indeed, it's no big deal.

Home console manufacturers aren't worried about PC software revenue, so why should handheld manufacturers be worried about pocket PCs (which is what smartphones are)? Especially when the pocket PC is almost exclusively used for low end gaming so far while an actual PC isn't a threat to home consoles depite being used for low end as well as high end gaming.

Where were you when Iwata said that they compete against all forms of gaming and every major form of entertainment from TV to Facebook?



Tease.

mike_intellivision on 27 February 2012
Squilliam said:
RolStoppable said:
Squilliam said:

What is exactly misleading here? I remember you didn't question pie charts when it was Nintendo Wii vs PS3 and Xbox 360 in total sales revenue. The pie chart is only questionable when it shows something that doesn't sit well with you? Anyway it is unlikely that a total revenue figure is going to be released unless Apple themselves decides to release one. I haven't seen anyone question the selling power of Steam, yet once more no total revenue figure is forthcoming.

If Nintendos losses are rooted in releasing an expensive hardware feature which doesn't pay for itself then that is their problem. It sounds a lot like the losses Sony incurred with the PS3 Blu Ray drive, I.E. big losses for little gain and in the end sales were determined by other factors. They didn't release a feature like that because they wanted to impress us with their technology, they wanted to make a handheld console with a gameplay feature which cannot be copied by iOS devices. Their new home console Wii U incorporates some of the tablet features of iOS devices, is this a coincidence?

Already got the revenue numbers which are as follows for the DS and PSP combined in 2009, 2010, 2011 (in billions): $2.2, $1.6, $1.4. DS and PSP declined at similar rates, so their respective share of these numbers is basically the same each year. These numbers don't show any unusual decline for video game systems that went into their fifth (2010) and sixth (2011) year. Therefore smartphones didn't have an impact on Nintendo's business.

No need to set up a strawman argument. I would have questioned pie charts for Wii vs. 360 vs. PS3 software revenue or total sales revenue all the same, because unit sales are a much more important metric. Since Wii games go for a lower price, percentage of revenue would put the Wii at a disadvantage in such a comparison.

And yes, Nintendo's hardware is their problem, caused by themselves. Not by Apple or any other smartphone manufacturer.

DS revenue = $1.89B 2009, $1.4B 2010, $1.2B 2011.

iOS game revenue (using typical 6:1 ratio with Android) = ~$1.6B 2011.

Suddenly some other handheld device has more gaming revenue than Nintendo and it's no big deal? I have a few HD console sales = whole console gaming market threads I want to sell you then.

Can I ask a dumb question ... What is the "typical 6;1 ratio with Android"?

Has there been some research on what Android users buy? Or are people using an estimated attach rate?

I am trying to learn here, not trying to be critical (at this time).

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV
Squilliam on 27 February 2012
mike_intellivision said:
Squilliam said:
RolStoppable said:
Squilliam said:

What is exactly misleading here? I remember you didn't question pie charts when it was Nintendo Wii vs PS3 and Xbox 360 in total sales revenue. The pie chart is only questionable when it shows something that doesn't sit well with you? Anyway it is unlikely that a total revenue figure is going to be released unless Apple themselves decides to release one. I haven't seen anyone question the selling power of Steam, yet once more no total revenue figure is forthcoming.

If Nintendos losses are rooted in releasing an expensive hardware feature which doesn't pay for itself then that is their problem. It sounds a lot like the losses Sony incurred with the PS3 Blu Ray drive, I.E. big losses for little gain and in the end sales were determined by other factors. They didn't release a feature like that because they wanted to impress us with their technology, they wanted to make a handheld console with a gameplay feature which cannot be copied by iOS devices. Their new home console Wii U incorporates some of the tablet features of iOS devices, is this a coincidence?

Already got the revenue numbers which are as follows for the DS and PSP combined in 2009, 2010, 2011 (in billions): $2.2, $1.6, $1.4. DS and PSP declined at similar rates, so their respective share of these numbers is basically the same each year. These numbers don't show any unusual decline for video game systems that went into their fifth (2010) and sixth (2011) year. Therefore smartphones didn't have an impact on Nintendo's business.

No need to set up a strawman argument. I would have questioned pie charts for Wii vs. 360 vs. PS3 software revenue or total sales revenue all the same, because unit sales are a much more important metric. Since Wii games go for a lower price, percentage of revenue would put the Wii at a disadvantage in such a comparison.

And yes, Nintendo's hardware is their problem, caused by themselves. Not by Apple or any other smartphone manufacturer.

DS revenue = $1.89B 2009, $1.4B 2010, $1.2B 2011.

iOS game revenue (using typical 6:1 ratio with Android) = ~$1.6B 2011.

Suddenly some other handheld device has more gaming revenue than Nintendo and it's no big deal? I have a few HD console sales = whole console gaming market threads I want to sell you then.

Can I ask a dumb question ... What is the "typical 6;1 ratio with Android"?

Has there been some research on what Android users buy? Or are people using an estimated attach rate?

I am trying to learn here, not trying to be critical (at this time).

Mike from Morgantown

This: http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/why-eric-schmidts-prediction-about-android-vs-ios-development-dead-wrong



Tease.

archbrix on 27 February 2012
Squilliam said:
Nintendo's luck ran out. Simply the same reason why Sony fell as well, there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market and a large part of the great success they both had previously is simply good fortune.

Wrong, except for, "there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market".

Nintendo's dominance in the handheld market has been due to appealing to what the market wanted.

Sony fell because of a chain of bad decisions.

Microsoft excelled because of a chain of great decisions.

Almost nothing to do with luck in all cases...



Alby_da_Wolf on 27 February 2012
goldeneye0074eva2222 said:

 

[...]   (I'm not worthy of quoting teh Analyst God)

 

some blasphony link is on vgchartz home page whats with this patcher guy hes so biased against nintendo  .   but since his guesses are wrong all the time  , 

 

my take is that nintendo will be fine and pft dont need saving  in fact nintendo can come out tommorow with a gameboy   , and this guy will still be saying " this is the last gen of handhelds  and what losses there was only 1 loss that was last quarter patcher you really did your self in once again ,  

 

telling everyone to go to school huh? wow gamers look at this guys remark ( go back to school pay attention read it again?) if i was his boss he woulda been fired  after the gamecube gen 

 

sorry patcher your just as weak as they come   even my prediction about nintendo was more right ha ha ha and you probably paid big bucks to go to some fancy collage haha --  yet i didnt need to haha    (sic!) 

 

its pretty pathetic pacther thinks this about nintendo after 20 yrs in the industry of gaming and 100 yrs overall   in the world 

nintendo is smart ,   they always find ways , ,  just you sit there and watch .  as 16 m 3ds vs 8 million dses ,,  and 

hmm wii u flys off shelves to 

 

If teh Analyst God says Ninty is d0m3d, we, puny mortals, can't contradict him! And even less can puny mortals who assassinate grammar and orthography.   

 

 

PS: Montana, please, UNBAN HIM! How can we live without?       



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!