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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Pachter: "Wii U won't save Nintendo, phones took 35% of the market"

Nintendo's luck ran out. Simply the same reason why Sony fell as well, there is no manifest destiny in the console or handheld market and a large part of the great success they both had previously is simply good fortune.



Tease.

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IPad and Iphone and other android phones have taken away valuable casual game market share. The new competition offer games for a fraction of the price of the consoles and portable game devices. Companies need to adapt to the market or introduce a game changer of their own.



Dark_Lord_2008 said:
IPad and Iphone and other android phones have taken away valuable casual game market share. The new competition offer games for a fraction of the price of the consoles and portable game devices. Companies need to adapt to the market or introduce a game changer of their own.

Shhh! It's only disruption when Nintendo does it.



Tease.

Rath said:
binary solo said:
Pavolink said:
gameheart said:
No need to respond to the lunatic. Whatever negatives pachter says about nintendo has always meant
good fortunes for them which make me believe the future is definately bright for nintendo

Well, to be fair, he is right about Nintendo's stock and their losses.

He called recently the Wii as a "fad", and becuase of that and Kinect its sales were declining fast. The same with smartphones and tablets against dedicated portable gaming. The point I believe he's forgetting, is that Kinect and smartphones/tablets can be fads as the Wii and many other thousand of things before in this world.

Kinect maybe, but smartphones I don't think so, people are morte and more gonna see mobile phones as a need rather than a luxury, and more and more they are going to see smartphones as also a need, or at least a justifiable upgrade on what is already a needful item. Xbox and Kinect will bever be viewed by the "casual" audience as a need; only gamer geeks think their console is a need.

I disagree with is comment that dedicated HH gamers will / have migrated to smartphones / tablets. Maybe he's using dedicated in a different context to what I'm thinking but I think the casual gamer (i.e. those who are happy with angry birds and cut the rope asa the extent of sophistication in gaming they are happy with) is for sure mostly lost to 3DS and Vita. No way the casual HH gamer makes up 1/2 of DS's market. But you can bet all the ladies Olivia Newton-John was advertising to with the DS have moved on and won;t be buying a 3DS. So I think perhaps 1/4 to 1/3 of the DS market is lost to the 3DS.

I think Nintendo are really missing a market here. They should take a leaf deom Apple's book. Apple was NOT a phone company, but they had a decent fanbase through first the computers then the iPods. Nintendo should make their own phone. Pair up with RIM so that they don't occupy the same OS as Sony (Android) and put out a DSphone.

I know all y'all DS fans would buy, don't try to tell me otherwise.

I don't think many people have gone from Wii to smartphone or tablet. Totally different reasons behind getting a Wii and a compelling Wii U experience will bring them back to the console in front of the TV. I think Wii U has lost some market share to Kinect and Nextbox+Kinect though. It seems pretty clear that about 250 million is the upper limit for number of consoles likely to be sold this generation. This gen could be the peak gen for consoles and the limit next gen might be 200 million. That's still plenty of console sales for each of the players to maintain a credible install base. I think it will be closer to evenly shared next gen with about 70 million each. But if MS and Sony get their "media hub" concept and marketing right then the console market potential could grow next gen. However if Nintendo keep their reputation as only a box for playing games then they may not be well positioned for those who are looking for more than just a console to attach to their TV.


Pairing up with RIM would be a ridiculously bad idea. Not only are the demographics all wrong (pretty much the only people with Blackberry phones are business people now) but RIM is a company that is heading down a very steep slope towards oblivion.

Only if Ninty was stupid enough to model and market their nintyphone as a BlackberryDS. They should simply licence the Blackberry OS for their phone, but otherwise market nand design it as a purely Ninty device. RIM is merely the provider of the phone and app OS. It's just that they don't really want to go Android which is where Sony lives in the mobile gaming (Playstation certified) space, they can't go WP8 (well they possibly could, but they're hardly going to put MS exclusive franchises on their machines and no doubt MS would insist as part of giving them WP8 for "free"). And Hell will freeze over before Apple lets them use iOS. Simbian IS dead. As is the HP mobile OS. That leaves them with RIM's OS. It's really only Blackberry devices that are unappealing to the mass market. Having a Nintyphone gives RIM OS a phone with a huge mass market potential, while RIM can concentrate its own devices in the corporate niche.

Android for a Nintyphone is a possibility as a neutral OS, and Ninty could go head to head with Sony within that ecosystem.  But really RIM's OS is plenty good enough, with enough cred for quality, if not marketshare, and long established that it would be a fine and well performing OS on a Nintyphone.  A lot of non-gaming multiplatform App developers would put their apps on the RIM OS simply because a Nintyphone would sell very well in Japan and other Asian markets.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

goldeneye0074eva2222 said:

sorry patcher your just as weak as they come   even my prediction about nintendo was more right ha ha ha and you probably paid big bucks to go to some fancy collage haha --  yet i didnt need to haha   

Achievement unlocked. You've earned Self Pwnd.



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I believe Patcher is quite right here.



RolStoppable said:
oniyide said:

Ill take your word for it for the most part, but does the Wii really need another Wii Sports or Fit??? I mean, its not like the system isnt silly with those exercise/mini game compilations anyway. I just wanted another Mario Tennis or Golf game. 

Yes, the Wii needs another Wii Sports and Wii Fit, because high quality is too rare in these categories, especially when you account for the amount of people who are interested in these genres.

If third parties were capable of filling the void that Nintendo left, then the system's sales would still be fine. Nintendo can't turn their backs on their audience and tell them to play some trash (which is what most third party software is). It doesn't and cannot work like that.


There wasn't even a need for sequels as those games are still selling strong today. Nintendo should've continued to release new disrupting games. An RPG that focuses on local multiplayer and co-op featuring Mii's would have been the best thing on earth. We're regularly having gaming parties here and everyone has been craving for such a game. A full blown Karaoke game made by Nintendo would've filled a big void as well. "We Sing" is selling quite well in Europe but it can't compete with Nintendo quality. And of course New Legend of Zelda.



UncleScrooge said:

There wasn't even a need for sequels as those games are still selling strong today. Nintendo should've continued to release new disrupting games. An RPG that focuses on local multiplayer and co-op featuring Mii's would have been the best thing on earth. We're regularly having gaming parties here and everyone has been craving for such a game. A full blown Karaoke game made by Nintendo would've filled a big void as well. "We Sing" is selling quite well in Europe but it can't compete with Nintendo quality. And of course New Legend of Zelda.

I disagree with the reasoning that sequels shouldn't be made, if the previous game(s) still sell(s). After all, that kind of logic would restrict us to only one Super Mario Bros. game per system. Nintendo didn't make a Wii Motion Plus tennis, so that alone would justify Wii Sports 3. Sequels are necessary to hold on to customers and if you look at the HD consoles, that's basically all that is done on them. Nowadays virtually every new release has a number attached to it.

I wholeheartedly agree on new IPs though which I briefly mentioned as another option in a previous post.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

binary solo said:
Rath said:


Pairing up with RIM would be a ridiculously bad idea. Not only are the demographics all wrong (pretty much the only people with Blackberry phones are business people now) but RIM is a company that is heading down a very steep slope towards oblivion.

Only if Ninty was stupid enough to model and market their nintyphone as a BlackberryDS. They should simply licence the Blackberry OS for their phone, but otherwise market nand design it as a purely Ninty device. RIM is merely the provider of the phone and app OS. It's just that they don't really want to go Android which is where Sony lives in the mobile gaming (Playstation certified) space, they can't go WP8 (well they possibly could, but they're hardly going to put MS exclusive franchises on their machines and no doubt MS would insist as part of giving them WP8 for "free"). And Hell will freeze over before Apple lets them use iOS. Simbian IS dead. As is the HP mobile OS. That leaves them with RIM's OS. It's really only Blackberry devices that are unappealing to the mass market. Having a Nintyphone gives RIM OS a phone with a huge mass market potential, while RIM can concentrate its own devices in the corporate niche.

Android for a Nintyphone is a possibility as a neutral OS, and Ninty could go head to head with Sony within that ecosystem.  But really RIM's OS is plenty good enough, with enough cred for quality, if not marketshare, and long established that it would be a fine and well performing OS on a Nintyphone.  A lot of non-gaming multiplatform App developers would put their apps on the RIM OS simply because a Nintyphone would sell very well in Japan and other Asian markets.

And the operating system is pretty much the weakest point on RIM, Ninty would be far better off developing their own OS or using Android despite it also having Sony. Of course I'm actually not a huge fan of the idea of a DSPhone anyway.



RolStoppable said:
UncleScrooge said:

There wasn't even a need for sequels as those games are still selling strong today. Nintendo should've continued to release new disrupting games. An RPG that focuses on local multiplayer and co-op featuring Mii's would have been the best thing on earth. We're regularly having gaming parties here and everyone has been craving for such a game. A full blown Karaoke game made by Nintendo would've filled a big void as well. "We Sing" is selling quite well in Europe but it can't compete with Nintendo quality. And of course New Legend of Zelda.

I disagree with the reasoning that sequels shouldn't be made, if the previous game(s) still sell(s). After all, that kind of logic would restrict us to only one Super Mario Bros. game per system. Nintendo didn't make a Wii Motion Plus tennis, so that alone would justify Wii Sports 3. Sequels are necessary to hold on to customers and if you look at the HD consoles, that's basically all that is done on them. Nowadays virtually every new release has a number attached to it.

I wholeheartedly agree on new IPs though which I briefly mentioned as another option in a previous post.


Yeah you are right. I'm an advocate of more Mario Bros. games per system as well and I would've loved a Wii Sports 3. I still think they didn't need those games for the Wii to sell. It would have pushed the console further but more new mass market IP's would've had a bigger effect. It was not meant to say "stop making sequels", though. I wanted to stress the go after your audience and expand the market part as Oniyide could've read this as "just more of the same". Here's hope we'll get Wii Sports 3 early in the Wii U's life and Nintendo's announcement of a 2D Mario for 3DS won't mean the Wii U title gets pushed back. We play so much Mario Bros Wii in 4 player mode I need at least two games per console or one day I'll fall asleep playing world 2-3 again