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Avinash_Tyagi on 10 January 2008
Bruceongames said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Bruceongames said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Bruceongames said:
Gnizmo said:
Total revenue is far less important than actual profit. Total revenue will always favor the 360 due to the higher price tags on the console itsel, while the Wii is likely to have a much higher profit. While the 360 is doing absolutely fine in its own right, it is losing very badly compared to the Wii.

 

To Microsoft profit is pretty much irrelevant. They have made mountains of it for decades from PC software and have enough money in the bank to buy a country or two. Microsoft want marketshare and that means that turnover is mighty important to them, which is why being a billion dollars ahead of Wii for the year by the end of November is significant. Now they want to ramp up the 360 installed base so they will drop prices and bundle. A 360 with Halo 3 for $199 (for instance) is going to attract a huge number of buyers. And Microsoft can easily do this. Wii will probably outsell 360 in units in North America this year, but not by as much as the fanboys think. Also PS3 is going to have a brilliant year and could beat both of them. We will see, it is very interesting.

 So tell us, what will occur that will allow the PS3 to surpass the Wii?  You seem to think you have all the answers to please, enlighten us 

Many tens of millions of PS2 owners are waiting to upgrade.
GTA IV, MGS4, GT5, Wipeout HD, Littlebigplanet, Killzone 2 etc give them some excellent reasons to make that upgrade.
In this generation lots and lots of people will own 2 consoles (as mentioned in my blog). They will have a Wii as a toy for some family fun. And they will have a "proper" gaming console, just as they have had before. A lot of people have been holding back on the proper gaming console to see what happens. Enough is happening in 2008 to make them make up their minds and go out and buy.

 

Bruce system loyalty is a myth in this market, if it was for real everyone would be into atari or Nintendo or Sega.  People aren't hanging around waiting for PS3, most bought PS3 for games that are on the Wii now, those games you are talking about sold to a very select market, the higherst of those games sell no more than 15 million, PS2 had over 100 million consoles, that's less than 15% attach rate.  Sorry but you need a better argument for why people will switch over to PS3 over Wii.

 


 

So PSX owners didn't buy PS2s? Meanwhile do you have the faintest idea just how silly this statement is: "Lifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015" The current Wii model will be ancient, forgotten history by 2015. The PS3 will still be on sale.

PSX owners bought the PS2 because it had the biggest library of games and the most varied, the PS3 has neither 

 

NES took 20 years for production to end, when it launched it was a generation behind



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Linkzmax on 10 January 2008

So SNES owners didn't buy N64 and then Gamecube?
So Genesis owners didn't buy Saturn and then Dreamcast?

PSX got most of its sales thanks to its huge library. PS2 got most of its sales thank to its huge library an the fact that it doubled as a DVD player.

PS3 doubles as a Blu Ray player among other features, but so far it's lacking on the huge library of games that drew many consumers to the previous consoles. Yes it's still early in the lifetime, but due to increased development costs and times as well as a smaller PS3 install base than its competitors there will be fewer exclusives this time around.

The big name games you listed were only sold to a small amount of the total PS2 owners as Avinash pointed out. While they don't all sell to the same group, they aren't mutually exclusive either. There's a fair amount of overlap. While a lot of "hardcore" gamers bought PS2, the truth is PS2 sold to a LOT of casual gamers also. I think Avinash meant a lot of these casual gamers that bought the PS2 are now buying the Wii.

Also, while his prediction does seem a bit extrme, if the Wii continues to sell to new gamers, former gamers, and non-gamers then it could very well sell into the 200M+. I don't think it will at this point, but it's certainly possible.

2015 is a bit of a stretch for either the Wii or PS3 to be still in production. Do you honestly think Sony won't release a PS4 sometime between 2011 and 2013, or Microsoft an X720 for that matter which would force a new console by Sony? I mean if the Wii is going to need a successor when HD penetration really hits the mainstream, then won't graphics need to be pushed even further in another 4 or 5 years? There is no such thing as future-proof and 10-year cycles only exist as long as a console remains popular. Sony, nor Nintendo, nor Microsoft can force developers to continue bringing games to a console if the consumers are no longer buying games on that console.



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super_etecoon on 10 January 2008
Bruceongames said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Bruceongames said:
Gnizmo said:
Total revenue is far less important than actual profit. Total revenue will always favor the 360 due to the higher price tags on the console itsel, while the Wii is likely to have a much higher profit. While the 360 is doing absolutely fine in its own right, it is losing very badly compared to the Wii.

 

To Microsoft profit is pretty much irrelevant. They have made mountains of it for decades from PC software and have enough money in the bank to buy a country or two. Microsoft want marketshare and that means that turnover is mighty important to them, which is why being a billion dollars ahead of Wii for the year by the end of November is significant. Now they want to ramp up the 360 installed base so they will drop prices and bundle. A 360 with Halo 3 for $199 (for instance) is going to attract a huge number of buyers. And Microsoft can easily do this. Wii will probably outsell 360 in units in North America this year, but not by as much as the fanboys think. Also PS3 is going to have a brilliant year and could beat both of them. We will see, it is very interesting.

So tell us, what will occur that will allow the PS3 to surpass the Wii? You seem to think you have all the answers to please, enlighten us

Many tens of millions of PS2 owners are waiting to upgrade.
GTA IV, MGS4, GT5, Wipeout HD, Littlebigplanet, Killzone 2 etc give them some excellent reasons to make that upgrade.
In this generation lots and lots of people will own 2 consoles (as mentioned in my blog). They will have a Wii as a toy for some family fun. And they will have a "proper" gaming console, just as they have had before. A lot of people have been holding back on the proper gaming console to see what happens. Enough is happening in 2008 to make them make up their minds and go out and buy.

 


 Hey, Bruce.  At some point in time you are going to get called out for trolling. 



Fastrabbit09 on 10 January 2008

a) many of the ps2 owners are just getting a wii...they bought ps2 as the most casual console last gen and now the wii is the most casual console, so that's all they will get...they don't go for the crying baby ads and the 'unleash the beast' ads

b) if every 360 and ps3 owner also owns a wii, then wii already matches those 2 console sales plus they get many people who will only buy a wii

c) the wii isn't a toy; it's more powerful than ps2/gc/xbox...why weren't those toys and wii is?

d) wii will be bought by millions of people who NEVER EVER bought a console before...i've already seen it happen to dozens of people myself...these people wouldn't even consider a 360/ps3



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
lenardo on 10 January 2008

bruce

the wii is a "Toy"
the xbox360 is a "TOY"
the ps3 is a "TOY"

there is fundamentally no difference in their concepts.

they Play Games...

sure the more expensive ones have a few more functions, but at their CORES..they are made to Play Games which means they are TOYS..




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Fastrabbit09 on 10 January 2008

bruce and these other guys that harp on hd just don't get the average consumer

u've been so ingrained in ur industry for so long that u think everyone thinks the way you do

most people don't buy hdtvs for hd, they buy it because its thin...that's why most hdtv owners don't even view hd content on their hdtv...because they don't care

name ONE product that overtook the old product due solely to better video/sound quality

just ONE



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
Fastrabbit09 on 10 January 2008

as far as demand goes, i literally just got a call from someone about my $350 wii that i posted 21 days ago on craigslist in a major metro area that gets dozens of posts about wii a day

that's how strong the demand is, even at a price the same as 360 base and more than 360 arcade



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
stranne on 10 January 2008
Fastrabbit09 said:
bruce and these other guys that harp on hd just don't get the average consumer

u've been so ingrained in ur industry for so long that u think everyone thinks the way you do

most people don't buy hdtvs for hd, they buy it because its thin...that's why most hdtv owners don't even view hd content on their hdtv...because they don't care

name ONE product that overtook the old product due solely to better video/sound quality

just ONE

Colour TV!

But I do agree with your general point. 



Fastrabbit09 on 10 January 2008

color tv is the best example i've heard yet
tho watching is color is more of a functionality upgrade than simple incremental picture quality

there is a MUUUUUUUUCH bigger difference watching color vs b/w than there is watching hd vs sd

a good % of consumers can't tell the diff in hd and sd
another good % of consumers don't care about the diff enough to watch the hd version when its there for free instead of the sd version (my bro in law, my sis in law, even my wife sometimes)

but 99% of consumers would rather watch in color than b&w

ok, name something other than color tv that overtook the old product simply for better graphic/sound quality



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
Avinash_Tyagi on 10 January 2008

Only thing I can think of is CD and DVD over Tapes and records



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)