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Forums - Sales - A lot of big games in EMEAA overtracked? Including gasp Halo Reach and Gran Turismo 5

Carl on 17 November 2011
morenoingrato said:
@Carl:
I am not sure about GT5, it could be over, under, or spot on, I really don't know.
What I meant is his recent (well, constant, but it has been more noticiable this past month) urge to call anything undertracked.
He came to this thread only to say it is undertracked too.
He keeps insisting Uncharted, or PS3 are undertracked, funny thing, last month it was overtracked.
Watching the same crap over and over is getting tiresome, you know?


Then shut him up? Instead of bitching randomly on a forum?



                            

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Carl on 17 November 2011

Anyway...

We have some kind of "evidence" I guess of GT5 selling well outside of the countries these lot count as "Europe".

Anyone know how well Halo, Assassin's Creed and Final Fantasy did outside of the "Europe" they use?



                            

Michael-5 on 17 November 2011
atma998 said:
Michael-5 said:
_mevildan said:
Michael-5 said:
enrageorange said:
Michael-5 said:
mjk45 said:
I think your forgetting the middle east they seem to have gotten behind the PS3 also NDP only tracks NA where as Vgchartz is Americas as to Polophony I will leave that to ethmoza .

NDP only tracks USA, not Canada. VGC include Brazil, Mexico, and many other regions for it's Americas number. However a while ago I read that 87% of the Americas sales are contributed to US sales, and I would assume 8.7% contribute to Canada (1/10th the population).

As for EMEAA, not only did the OP forget the middle east, but they also forgot Africa. In the Middle East, Africa and Asia territory, there are 5 million PS3's and 3 million 360's. 600k for GT5 or Halo off 5 or 3 million consoles is very doable.

That and VGC now track Halo Reach digital sales from the bundle, NDP doesn't include those numbers.

by asia I meant most of the middle east as well which  polyphony includes as part of their asia numbers. As for Africa I have no idea if they would be included under Asia or Europe but either way there is no way Africa is such a signifcant portion of EMEAA.

The population of Africa is 1 billion people. The number of console gamers there likely exceeds the Middle East. I remember when Halo 3 came out, they had a world map and stars representing clusters of gamers. Most gamers were east/west coast USA/Canada, and there were a lot in Western Europe. However outside of NA and EU, the only places I remember seeing stars were Africa (South Africa and Tanzania), Brazil, and a little bit in Japan.

I said earlier, if US is 87% of Americas, and Canada is 8.7%, then there is still 8.3% of Americas sales contributed to South America. I wouldn't think Africas software sales are any different then South Americas. So if Halo Reach sold 7 million in Americas, this corresponds to 600k sales in South America, which correspond to 600k sales in Africa, which....is magically almost exactly the missing amount from your data.

You might be skeptical that Africa gets as many console sales as South America, but believe me, I've been to Tanzania, it's not as rural as you think. Also unlike Brazil, consoles aren't heavily taxed (a 360 now is still a $600 system there), so even if there are less gamers in South Africa and the east coast, more are able to buy the games.

Video games are quite popular in South Africa. How many numbers in sales that translates to... not sure. But we have dedicated games retailers here, with midnight launches for bigger games and such things. We get offical ranked servers for the big FPSs etc. If that means anything.

PC gaming is especially huge here. RPGs, racing games and shooters seem to me the most popular. Between X360, PS3, Wii... it seems to me that more people own Xboxes, but PS3 games sell more (i'll let you figure out why). Basing that on what I see on popular online retailers. Wii popularity... not sure (i've got one though).

Also, Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy and Assassin's Creed are very popular titles here. Halo... not so much.

All just my experience, but there you go.

Exactly my point, the economy of South Africa isn't that different from the US or Canada, and the population is about 1.5 times the size of Canada. So I wouldn't be surprised if South Afirza alone accounted for 400 out of the 600k missing in the OP. Add in Tanzania and other east coast countries and there is your missing sales.

Halo was just an example as it's one of the games listed in the OP, and like I said, I know a good amount of people in South Africa play Halo 3 because it's illuminated on the world play map.

Wrong.

The average annual income in South Africa is around 10,000$ per capita and and less than 2,000$ per capita for black people who counts for more than 80% of the population.

No way you can compare South Africa to Canada when it comes to video games sales. I'm pretty sure South Africa doesnt have 1/4 of video games sales in Canada.

average annual income per capita is actually 11k, and if it's 2k for black people, that means the capita is 42k per non black person. Canada's capita is 40k, and USA's is 50k (but don't be fooled, USA actually has the highest poverty rate of all the developed countries. They just have super corperations to balance this number).

So 20% of South Africa is stil 1/3rd the population of Canada, and the capita is the same. That would make 1/3rd the game sales very plausible (these places aren't as rural as you think). Johannesburg for instance is more populated then every city above north america except New Mexico, New York City, and Toronto (yay third biggest in NA).

Maybe 400k sales of some of these major franchise installments (lets use GT) might be much, but 200k from this country alone is damn well plausible. Also there are countries in the East coast of Africa, and middle east not accounted for.



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Michael-5 on 17 November 2011
ethomaz said:
OMG!

GT5 shipped 4 million standard copies for 31st December 2010 for Europe (4.2 million in EMEAA).

PD already released the Platinum Edition on Europe... so GT5 sold something near 4 million in Europe for sure (how many standard copies have in stock in Europe stores befere the release of Platinum Edition?).

VGC had GT5 at 4,189,085 for ALL EMEAA.

Seems like UNDERTRACKED in Europe.

Everybody, ethomaz, like you predicted.



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Michael-5 on 17 November 2011
ethomaz said:

Europe countries in the report...

United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Russia, The Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Austria, Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, Ireland, Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovakia.

All there countries together sold 2,007,907 units of GT5 in 35 days.

VGC had it at 3,266,448 for ALL EMEAA and not 17 countries.

And not to mention the report not counted games bundled with hardware.

Yea Finland and Austria Hungary might be major contributors to the software sales, but Ukraine, Holland, Switzerland, Bosnia, Serbia, Greece, and well anything on the east end likely don't contribute too many sales for games.

I'm pretty sure VGC is better at tracking sales then you ethomaz.

to the OP, those countries are small, but add in South Africa, Egypt, Tanzania, and a bunch of other moderatly developed South African countries and that 600k difference seems to fit in perfectly.



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yo_john117 on 18 November 2011
Troll_Whisperer said:
Those GT5 numbers are a year old.

That seems like a bit of a stretch considering GT5 isn't even a year old



NotStan on 18 November 2011

Halo Reach sales,

Can't be that low, alot of people in Europe are under 13, there are also alot of Xboxs in the region, Halo Reach also doesn't follow the laws of physics nor does it follow the normal selling patterns.

Because of what it is, it should sell at least 5 billion.

Seems like UNDERTRACKED in Europe.



Disconnect and self destruct, one bullet a time.

crissindahouse on 18 November 2011
pezus said:
crissindahouse said:
pezus said:
crissindahouse said:
yeah it's very simple.south africa, maybe kenia, nigeria, tanzania, egypt...all other european countries!! which european countries are included? what's with turkey for example?is it included? istanbul alone has like 10m population. whole turkey 80million and don't know what you think in america but turkey isn't the 3rd world.

what's with ukraine, hungary, kazakhstan, russia, bulgaria, belarus, romania and so on?

Lol, those are not all European countries but they're certainly counted in the EMEAA totals

which aren't european countries? since i'm from europe i can say they are all european countries except the african ones i counted at the beginning sure lol.

Exactly

this is great for you but tsince i did never say that it still is only your problem lol. only because i list some african countries and then saying "and all otherr european countries" doesn't mean i call the african countires european one in the context to op. and i think you should know that there isn't only one person on this planet thinking south africa is europe.



crissindahouse on 18 November 2011
pezus said:
Kynes said:
crissindahouse said:
you still know that africa counts as well right? so 200 million europeans not in this and africa with some countries like huge nigeria. sure they don't have all money there but they have a lot with money and yeah many without anything.


Do you know that those 17 countries in the report should be more than 80% of the total EMEAA sales? They are the biggest markets of Sony in EMEAA by a long shot.

Where did you get the 80%?

__

Norway+Finland (about 40-50% of Scandinavian sales): 0.6m

Other European countries that the list lacks:

Ukraine (population 45m)
Romania (22m)
Kazakhstan (16.4m)
Greece (11.6m)
Belarus (10.3m)
Serbia (7.8m)
Bulgaria (7.6m)
Switzerland (7.3m)
Georgia (5m)
Croatia (4.5m)
Moldova (4.4m)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (4m)
Lithuania (3.6m)
Albania (3.5m)
Armenia (3.3m)
Latvia (2.4m)
Macedonia (2.1m)
Slovenia (2.1m)
Estonia (1.4m)
Cyprus (0.8m)
Montenegro (0.6m)
Luxembourg (0.5m)
Malta (0.4m)
Iceland (0.35m - probably one of the biggest PS3 countries when talking about marketshare)
About 10 other countries with less than 100k population each (0.5m)

Total population: ~167-168m

If we assume the avg. console/population ratio in these countries is a bit higher than half the ratio in Italy (low compared to UK, France, Germany etc.). Italy gives us 2.6m consoles/60m population = 4.33%. We choose a value a bit lower: 2.5%. That means the PS3 has sold 4.18m in those other European countries. Now, I'm not sure if the PS3 has launched in all of those countries so the actual number may be a bit lower, let's say 4m.

Middle East, Africa & Asia

Number of PS3s: 5m

Australia and NZ: 1.35m consoles

Total so far: 10.3-11.3m consoles. Let's pick the low end and say 10.3m

10.3/26.8 is still almost 40% of PS3 consoles. If we consider that GT5 is equally popular in all of EMEAA, that means those 2m in the report were only 60% of its EMEAA sales. What's 2m/0.60? 3.3million GT5 units sold - without bundles. The number may be a bit lower if countries such as UK have a slightly higher attach rate than average and so on so it may be only 3m without bundles. Bundles were easily 200k, so it's by no means overtracked.

___________

Edit/tl;dr: GT5 does not appear to be overtracked at all - in fact, the shipment numbers point to the exact opposite.

i really think you forgot 80 million turkish people. i don't think it's counted to middle east since it counts to europe politically and geographically as well for one part. i'm not really sure in germany we call i otherwise "near east" (makes sense from our position) and we don't count it nor does it the arabic world itself like this. in english the put turkey to it as the "traditional definition of the middle east" but not the politically. state departmend for example doesn't count it as middle east as well:

"In 1958, the State Department explained that the terms "Near East" and "Middle East" were interchangeable, and defined the region as including only Egypt, Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar."

 

but i'm not sure how it's counted here.



Michael-5 on 18 November 2011
pezus said:
Kynes said:
crissindahouse said:
you still know that africa counts as well right? so 200 million europeans not in this and africa with some countries like huge nigeria. sure they don't have all money there but they have a lot with money and yeah many without anything.


Do you know that those 17 countries in the report should be more than 80% of the total EMEAA sales? They are the biggest markets of Sony in EMEAA by a long shot.

Where did you get the 80%?

__

Norway+Finland (about 40-50% of Scandinavian sales): 0.6m

Other European countries that the list lacks:

Ukraine (population 45m)
Romania (22m)
Kazakhstan (16.4m)
Greece (11.6m)
Belarus (10.3m)
Serbia (7.8m)
Bulgaria (7.6m)
Switzerland (7.3m)
Georgia (5m)
Croatia (4.5m)
Moldova (4.4m)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (4m)
Lithuania (3.6m)
Albania (3.5m)
Armenia (3.3m)
Latvia (2.4m)
Macedonia (2.1m)
Slovenia (2.1m)
Estonia (1.4m)
Cyprus (0.8m)
Montenegro (0.6m)
Luxembourg (0.5m)
Malta (0.4m)
Iceland (0.35m - probably one of the biggest PS3 countries when talking about marketshare)
About 10 other countries with less than 100k population each (0.5m)

Total population: ~167-168m

If we assume the avg. console/population ratio in these countries is a bit higher than half the ratio in Italy (low compared to UK, France, Germany etc.). Italy gives us 2.6m consoles/60m population = 4.33%. We choose a value a bit lower: 2.5%. That means the PS3 has sold 4.18m in those other European countries. Now, I'm not sure if the PS3 has launched in all of those countries so the actual number may be a bit lower, let's say 4m.

Middle East, Africa & Asia

Number of PS3s: 5m

Australia and NZ: 1.35m consoles

Total so far: 10.3-11.3m consoles. Let's pick the low end and say 10.3m

10.3/26.8 is still almost 40% of PS3 consoles. If we consider that GT5 is equally popular in all of EMEAA, that means those 2m in the report were only 60% of its EMEAA sales. What's 2m/0.60? 3.3million GT5 units sold - without bundles. The number may be a bit lower if countries such as UK have a slightly higher attach rate than average and so on so it may be only 3m without bundles. Bundles were easily 200k, so it's by no means overtracked.

___________

Edit/tl;dr: GT5 does not appear to be overtracked at all - in fact, the shipment numbers point to the exact opposite.

Just so you know, I'm Ukrainian and I have a lot of friends from Romania and Ukraine. These countries are poor as hell, and no body plays games in those two countries. Ukraine is all about drinking and club life, no one has enough $ to spend on games.

So 1/3rd of that 170 million population I can say, probably isn't too gaming focused, but yea...

Now I just read the end of your post, and I agree. Way to sock it too these people. VGC numbers are accurate, nothing is overtracked, and I would argue that GT5 isn't under-tracked either. PD has claim 6,370k units were shipped as of December 31st 2010, and VGC have sales at 6,680k. Typically they would overship a game like this by a million units to keep up the supply, and VGC claim the game has sold 1.4 million units this year. If the game is undertracked, it's undertracked by a mere 100k (6.7-5.4-1.4=0.1), and even then, I doubt this one game is specifically undertracked.

Either way ethomaz, March 31st is coming, and I don't see GT5 breaking 8.5 million by then. Going to win our little bet of 2 weeks sig and avatar control, .



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