Mummelmann said: Well, even though the exact numbers might not be right, I guess my prediction is in my sig (made in january).

those prediction are already wrong,if the 360 doesn't not make a dramatic comeback and most probably won't happen as MS won't cut the price

and please make predictions for both

Last year the holiday shipments were tied. Between the holiday quarter and quarter 1 of the calendar year Sony expect to be up YOY by 1.1 million in terms of shipments, the majority of that probably during the holiday quarter. Barring something massive happening I can't see 360 matching last holidays shipments. It'll probably fall at least 250k-500k short of last years numbers. So 360 being down about 300k and PS3 being up by around 800k would put the shipment gap at just under a million.

Official gap: 800k
VGC gap: 1.6 million

are you sure about VGC numbers as they are usually adjusted after official numbers come out

The 360 is about to have its biggest holiday in the US, now how well the PS3 do in Others will help it survive. I expect it to increase by Vgchartz but end up shipping the same again.

3.2 million ..............vgchartz

2.2million........................shipping

yeah 360 is really exploding the US and modern warfare numbers were just.....wow

though it has been happening again and again that we will see some number in NPD or VGC,but when official numbers come out the story is different.

I'm loosly basing that off my prediction in the 10 week thread. I've been relatively accurate so far, although I'll be underestimating both PS3 and 360 this week. 360 slightly more so than PS3.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4284597

Very difficult to say.

Microsoft are still sticking to their #1 WW 2011 (which they've said is sold to consumers not shipments) and we have 7 weeks till the end of the year? I've said before, they're not infallible, but this is a message they've been consistant with month in month out, i just don't see how they can predict something within a short timeframe, and get it so wrong. Just doesn't seem possible to me. They could miss it by a few hundred K, but to fall behind in shipments (let alone sales) by 2 mill for the year, when with 7 weeks to go in the year they say they're going to be #1? Do you think a bunch of monkeys work at Microsoft or something?

In terms of PS3 shipments, I see 6.5 - 7 mill (with the remaining growth they expect either not happening or being in Q1) In the U.S Anita Fraizer the lady that works for NPD (in some sort of fashion I believe) has said she expects PS3 to be flat yoy in the U.S, October NPD certainly points to that. Japan, how much growth can Japan fesiably generate over Q4? for the first 5 weeks of this Q it's up about 25k overall, that's peanuts. So it rests on a GT5less EMEAA. Sony never fail to surprise me with their shipments, so 7 mill plus wouldn't surprise me, not much more than that though.

X360 and PS3 tied in shipments last holiday, not sales though, 360 was vastly in shortage as shown in their Q1 shipments (Q110was nearly double any previous Q1 in 360's life) I don't know how many of those shipped in Q1 were suppose to be for Q4, but you can easily imagin 700k, (which would stll have given Q110 360's highest Q1 by over 25% (600k)) so 7 mill shipped.

EMEAA has the potential to be up, down, or flat, I can't call it. It depends on what microsoft has plans for there, with EMEAA not being X360/Kinect crazy, and with giftcards not being all the rage there, AND with Wii and PS3 getting price cuts there, it'll baffle me if MS don't cut there if their other plans arnt working. U.S is where they can see good growth though, very good growth. Never underestimate casuals in the holiday season.

I still expect X360 to come first this year, to do so they need to ship 1.3M+ ish  over PS3 to do it in sales like they've said, so I expect the shipments gap to be about 3.4m?

I expect the VGC sales to be almost exactly the same as well.

Nov NPD should be the telltale as to whether they're succeeding with being #1 though, as if they announce they're 'on track to be #1' with only 3 weeks to go before the end of the year it's almost a dead cert. If they go quiet then it looks like they're not doing well. By then we'll be into Dec though and VGC should be giving us a good idea on how sales are going.

snakenobi said: Mummelmann said: Well, even though the exact numbers might not be right, I guess my prediction is in my sig (made in january). those prediction are already wrong,if the 360 doesn't not make a dramatic comeback and most probably won't happen as MS won't cut the price and please make predictions for both

Well, I'm going to leave them as they are, I never change my january predictions, that would kind of make them useless. Besides, you never know if the 360 will have an insane holiday, we know it can pull some crazy Americas numbers and this might be the first holiday this gen where Wii isn't on top for the season.

Mummelmann said: snakenobi said: Mummelmann said: Well, even though the exact numbers might not be right, I guess my prediction is in my sig (made in january). those prediction are already wrong,if the 360 doesn't not make a dramatic comeback and most probably won't happen as MS won't cut the price and please make predictions for both Well, I'm going to leave them as they are, I never change my january predictions, that would kind of make them useless. Besides, you never know if the 360 will have an insane holiday, we know it can pull some crazy Americas numbers and this might be the first holiday this gen where Wii isn't on top for the season.

Your predictions look mighty fine, especially your X360 one, they only need to ship 7.4M with 1 mill on shelves for 64M to be a reality.

The chances are high for a 2 million Vgchartz, unless and until they don't over track the 360 sales numbers.
Official shipments numbers will be a solid 1.8 for 31st December and 0.0 exactly by December 2013.