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Forums - Sales Discussion - Numbers That MS Needs To Pull To Tie The PS3 For 2011. And Why I Think It Is Now Impossible.

 

Will The 360 Be Able To Pull It Off?

The Kinect Will Rule The ... 220 27.92%
 
It Will Be Close, But The... 241 30.58%
 
No Way. The PS3 Will Be ... 270 34.26%
 
What Are You Talking Abou... 56 7.11%
 
Total:787

The PS2 was actually underpowered compared to the Gamecube.  The reason why the gamecube didn't do so well, was its selection of games, JRPG, and the rising online FPS market was increasing and Nintendo didn't accomadate to that.  The Gamecube used a power PC based chip, which we are beginning to see in all consoles now, even the Cell processor is based off IBM PowerPC technology.  This allowed faster access from the RAM to the CPU and same with Video chip.  The Xbox 360 also uses a PowerPC chip.  That was the reason for it overheating.  The particular chip, based off the G5 architecture was prone to overheating and is the exact reason why Apple switched to Intel.  Notice how no laptops used the G5 chip?  It wasn't because X86 was faster, since it isn't and that is why we don't see any X86 consoles anymore besides from the original Xbox which didn't do so hot.  Though it did make a good base for emulation.  The gamecube ran games at a faster frame rate, and the cross platform games had slightly more detail and better AA on the gamecube.  Also, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUz2WMJKdTQ   The gamecubes processor ran at a higher clock, had quicker access to the hardware, and could do some great things.  Just bottlednecked by the Game library and the type of Disc the gamecube used.



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rf40928 said:

What the original poster and many others " don't get" is it really doesn't matter if Sony surpasses Ms in consoles sold.  The ps3's price was so much higher then the cost to make it on release.. That Sony literally lost 4.9 billion USD..as of 2009 ( in comparison, last generation - MS lost 4.2 Billion on start-up cost on the original Xbox )... In mid 2010 Sony began making a small profit on PS3's.. Of course a year of marginal profit doesnt remake all the billions they lost.. Billions that were made from the good old PS2 days.. Recently as everyone knows the PS3 price drop put them back in the 'RED' .. Sony announced a loss of 350 million  US dollars from the PS3 in one quarter alone ( www.vgchartz.com/article/88359/sony-loses-350m-in-july-sept-2011-ps3-shipments-within-2m-of-x360/ ). ... Sony could surpass MS in consoles sold.. For them it would only be a 'moral victory' as MS has been out of the red for years now.  Even considering losses on all those "free repairs" MS did on rrod consoles - MS will have positive cash flow this generation ( money put in the bank ) while Sony will not overall .. The 360 has only been profitable about 3 yrs.. But they weren't ever losing $400 dollars per console or even $300... MS also had the millions each quarter from Xbox live while Sony only recently offered a subscription service very comparable to XB live Gold in which they can make some extra cash.. MS has also made more from games.. Not just from selling a little more, but also from cheaper cost.. It's only about 10 cents per DVD... While it cost dollars for a single blueray disc .. From that stand point alone MS has made Hundreds of Millions more this generation on games alone thanks to selling more games and lower operating cost.  From a strictly financial point of view.. The PS3 is in last place this generation... it has done the opposite of what the PS2 did financially for Sony.  On the other hand the Xbox 360 did the opposite of the original Xbox.. It's outsold the original Xbox by two fold so far, the 360 has also outsold itself every year it's been out ( it's already again beat last years sales - against itself - for the 6th year in a row) .. This is why they won't release another console next year.  As long as its still selling hotter each year ( aka the PS2 ) they know it would just hurt their wallets.  This is why the PS2 lasted so long!  Positive Cash and they were number 1 !  Sony can't control the market the same way with a console that has lost so much money - and continues to.... This is why if your a Sony stockholder you're probably looking forward to a PS4 release.  Why?  I'm sure this time Sony won't dare release a console at such a big loss.. It'll likely be much cheaper then the PS3 was off the shelf as well.. Yeah the PS2 was sold in a perfect storm.... It was released nearly a year before an underpowered Nintendo console.. And released way ahead of a console no one really knew would exist with Xbox 1... Throw in the fact the PS2 was the only console then to play DVD ( the  already established format- unlike bluray).. At the time it barely cost more to by a PS2 then a Premium DVD player.. So many consumers bought a PS2 knowing they could watch movies and the kids could game... Right now if your the Xbox division President you're getting patted on the back and getting a fat bonus for the holidays.. The guy who lowered the Ps3 price might not even have a job.. At minimum he got some serious @zz chewing.. The PS3 profit margin was so slim that the devaluing of the Yen cost Sony 350 million US dollars ( roughly 54 billion yen ) in the last 4 months alone..  So you see even if MS would come in last place in number of consoles sold they won't be too worried.. They've so far doubled the user base since last gen ( Sony has has 1/2'd theirs ) .. 

Here's a visual aid, in case you were looking for it:



Signature goes here!

After seeing the 360 Black friday sales I have no doubt the 360 will outsell the PS3 worldwide *he said sadly*



errorpwns said:
drkohler said:

Here's the thing that is puzzling to me:

MS sold 960'000 Boxes last week. Most of these boxes were price reduced, essentially selling at zero shop markup. Most were sold with $50/$100 vouchers. So let's assume an average of $50 voucher per Box, that makes roughly $50mio _somebody_ has lost last week. I really can't figure out why losing so much money is sane business practise? Those 800'000 sold boxes on bf may sound incredible, but it is simply 800'000 boxes NOT sold (at a profit) around Chritsmas..

And please stop that silly "no pricecut" argument. USA =/= TheWorld. Over here, XBoxes have always been (considerably) cheaper than PS3s (and Kinect has just seen its fourth price cut in a year...


Still at a profit,  Microsoft had to have been making a profit somewhere to have lowered the price.  That is like saying the first 20 million or more PS3 sales don't count as sony took a loss on them.  Xbox still wins if you factor that statement in.  If you want to get real serious, than the Wii wins hands down as it was never sold by Nintendo for less than a profit.  The parts to make the consoles have gotten cheaper, yet console prices have only dropped by a little bit.  Microsoft also puts a premium on HDD prices, which even with inflated HDD prices is still crazy.  So they've made a profit.  Take the Sony goggles off.  All of the big three made decent sales this week. 

??? Where did I say anything about "winning"? The name Sony appears nowhere in my post - What the hell are you talking about???

All I'm saying somebody lost around $50mio on selling Xboxes this month (or is going to as the vouchers are probably not yet redeemed).But if you think MS could sell XBoxes below $200 and sponsor $100 vouchers you are seriously uninformed about manufacturing costs. So the question remains: Who is intentionally losing all that money?



drkohler said:
errorpwns said:
drkohler said:

Here's the thing that is puzzling to me:

MS sold 960'000 Boxes last week. Most of these boxes were price reduced, essentially selling at zero shop markup. Most were sold with $50/$100 vouchers. So let's assume an average of $50 voucher per Box, that makes roughly $50mio _somebody_ has lost last week. I really can't figure out why losing so much money is sane business practise? Those 800'000 sold boxes on bf may sound incredible, but it is simply 800'000 boxes NOT sold (at a profit) around Chritsmas..

And please stop that silly "no pricecut" argument. USA =/= TheWorld. Over here, XBoxes have always been (considerably) cheaper than PS3s (and Kinect has just seen its fourth price cut in a year...


Still at a profit,  Microsoft had to have been making a profit somewhere to have lowered the price.  That is like saying the first 20 million or more PS3 sales don't count as sony took a loss on them.  Xbox still wins if you factor that statement in.  If you want to get real serious, than the Wii wins hands down as it was never sold by Nintendo for less than a profit.  The parts to make the consoles have gotten cheaper, yet console prices have only dropped by a little bit.  Microsoft also puts a premium on HDD prices, which even with inflated HDD prices is still crazy.  So they've made a profit.  Take the Sony goggles off.  All of the big three made decent sales this week. 

??? Where did I say anything about "winning"? The name Sony appears nowhere in my post - What the hell are you talking about???

All I'm saying somebody lost around $50mio on selling Xboxes this month (or is going to as the vouchers are probably not yet redeemed).But if you think MS could sell XBoxes below $200 and sponsor $100 vouchers you are seriously uninformed about manufacturing costs. So the question remains: Who is intentionally losing all that money?

LOL 'around $50' talk about plucking from thin air. You have zero idea how much MS lost. You know the $99 Wii at Walmart made a loss for Walmart, but not Nintendo. Reggie was boasting about it. So you really should just assume MS are losing any/much money on these deals, especially when they havn't cut the $199 sku in 3 years, they were already making a meaty profit it on it.

It's quite clear MS are the most business/finance minded when it comes to their gaming platform, they're not the ones cutting price every 2 years, and they're the ones making the most money, and have said under no uncertain terms does the division make a loss again.



 

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Does selling 960,000 Xbox 360 units in one day enough for ya??

What about selling 800,000 kinect units??



Yay!!!

drkohler said:
errorpwns said:
drkohler said:

Here's the thing that is puzzling to me:

MS sold 960'000 Boxes last week. Most of these boxes were price reduced, essentially selling at zero shop markup. Most were sold with $50/$100 vouchers. So let's assume an average of $50 voucher per Box, that makes roughly $50mio _somebody_ has lost last week. I really can't figure out why losing so much money is sane business practise? Those 800'000 sold boxes on bf may sound incredible, but it is simply 800'000 boxes NOT sold (at a profit) around Chritsmas..

And please stop that silly "no pricecut" argument. USA =/= TheWorld. Over here, XBoxes have always been (considerably) cheaper than PS3s (and Kinect has just seen its fourth price cut in a year...


Still at a profit,  Microsoft had to have been making a profit somewhere to have lowered the price.  That is like saying the first 20 million or more PS3 sales don't count as sony took a loss on them.  Xbox still wins if you factor that statement in.  If you want to get real serious, than the Wii wins hands down as it was never sold by Nintendo for less than a profit.  The parts to make the consoles have gotten cheaper, yet console prices have only dropped by a little bit.  Microsoft also puts a premium on HDD prices, which even with inflated HDD prices is still crazy.  So they've made a profit.  Take the Sony goggles off.  All of the big three made decent sales this week. 

??? Where did I say anything about "winning"? The name Sony appears nowhere in my post - What the hell are you talking about???

All I'm saying somebody lost around $50mio on selling Xboxes this month (or is going to as the vouchers are probably not yet redeemed).But if you think MS could sell XBoxes below $200 and sponsor $100 vouchers you are seriously uninformed about manufacturing costs. So the question remains: Who is intentionally losing all that money?

I thought the voucher rebate is from the retailer? I think they've had the $199 price tag in the US for 3 years now, surely they could stand to drop it $50.

I really think MS wants to push the hardware out the door and rake in their residual income from Live subscriptions - it's got to be near 20 million users by now at $60 per year (that's 1.2billion revenue!) if Sony can afford to keep the PSN free, surely a big chunk of that revenue is profit.



Fumanchu said:
drkohler said:
errorpwns said:
drkohler said:

Here's the thing that is puzzling to me:

MS sold 960'000 Boxes last week. Most of these boxes were price reduced, essentially selling at zero shop markup. Most were sold with $50/$100 vouchers. So let's assume an average of $50 voucher per Box, that makes roughly $50mio _somebody_ has lost last week. I really can't figure out why losing so much money is sane business practise? Those 800'000 sold boxes on bf may sound incredible, but it is simply 800'000 boxes NOT sold (at a profit) around Chritsmas..

And please stop that silly "no pricecut" argument. USA =/= TheWorld. Over here, XBoxes have always been (considerably) cheaper than PS3s (and Kinect has just seen its fourth price cut in a year...


Still at a profit,  Microsoft had to have been making a profit somewhere to have lowered the price.  That is like saying the first 20 million or more PS3 sales don't count as sony took a loss on them.  Xbox still wins if you factor that statement in.  If you want to get real serious, than the Wii wins hands down as it was never sold by Nintendo for less than a profit.  The parts to make the consoles have gotten cheaper, yet console prices have only dropped by a little bit.  Microsoft also puts a premium on HDD prices, which even with inflated HDD prices is still crazy.  So they've made a profit.  Take the Sony goggles off.  All of the big three made decent sales this week. 

??? Where did I say anything about "winning"? The name Sony appears nowhere in my post - What the hell are you talking about???

All I'm saying somebody lost around $50mio on selling Xboxes this month (or is going to as the vouchers are probably not yet redeemed).But if you think MS could sell XBoxes below $200 and sponsor $100 vouchers you are seriously uninformed about manufacturing costs. So the question remains: Who is intentionally losing all that money?

I thought the voucher rebate is from the retailer? I think they've had the $199 price tag in the US for 3 years now, surely they could stand to drop it $50.

I really think MS wants to push the hardware out the door and rake in their residual income from Live subscriptions - it's got to be near 20 million users by now at $60 per year (that's 1.2billion revenue!) if Sony can afford to keep the PSN free, surely a big chunk of that revenue is profit.

One of the best decisions in console production was to monetize online gaming.  MS has the luxury of selling at cost or small profits on the hardware side and still profiting with the help of live. 



287k lead over next 5 weeks?

Maybe next week 360 can pull that off, but for 5 weeks, no.

I think I will be right overall though. PS3 will win 2011, but by less then 1 million, maybe even just 500k.



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Michael-5 said:
287k lead over next 5 weeks?

Maybe next week 360 can pull that off, but for 5 weeks, no.

I think I will be right overall though. PS3 will win 2011, but by less then 1 million, maybe even just 500k.

360 should close the gap to 1 mill this week, so 200k over the next 5 weeks. Which isn't remotely difficult with the momentum it has. Black Friday week sales are never above Christmas week sales for any system, 360 will do 1.2/1.3M this week WW, so is a shoe in for 1.5M xmas week.