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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is It Possible For Uncharted 3 To Sell 4 Millionz By Years End. . . I Believe So!

 

Will Is it

YES It Will 115 36.98%
 
Maybe 81 26.05%
 
No Way 114 36.66%
 
Total:310
Seece on 22 September 2011
postofficebuddy said:
Seece said:

Possible? Of course it's possible.

Likely? I don't think so. Gears 2 released early November and sold 4.3 mill during the holiday, with a 2 mill opening week. Isn't Uncharted 3 expected to be around 1 mill first week?

You're basically expecting 400/500k weeks during November ... which Black Ops PS3 just about managed ...


Gears 2 wasn't bundled. Plus the Uncharted franchise has shown incredibly good legs compared to Gears. Gears 2 will end around 150% of its first calendar year. U2 is almost at 200% of its first calendar year and will end close to 250%. And I'm think an opening comfortably higher than 1 million is likely for U3. Look at the preorder ratio for U2 compared to U3. Plus I think that this could be the entry in the series that really takes off in Japan and does almost COD or GTA like numbers in that region.

Basically you list a bunch of best case scenario I don't really have anything substantial to back it up possibilites, and I use previous data that's much better to go on.

I could say, depending on how many bundles, it might not make that much of a difference at all, that legs don't matter over the first few weeks, that going by pre orders it looks like it'll be in the region of a 1 mill opening week, and that your Japan statement is pure wishful thinking.



 

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Mr Puggsly on 22 September 2011

Fudge no. Even 3 million sounds high.



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leatherhat on 22 September 2011

I always agreed with you on U2.

And Ill agree with you on this as well, though it will be tight.



ǝןdɯıs ʇı dǝǝʞ oʇ ǝʞıן ı ʍouʞ noʎ 

Ask me about being an elitist jerk

Time for hype

leatherhat on 22 September 2011
Seece said:

Possible? Of course it's possible.

Likely? I don't think so. Gears 2 released early November and sold 4.3 mill during the holiday, with a 2 mill opening week. Isn't Uncharted 3 expected to be around 1 mill first week?

You're basically expecting 400/500k weeks during November ... which Black Ops PS3 just about managed ...


U2 had an opening of 850k and U3 is well ahead in preorders. I'd say 1.5 million fw isn't out of the question. 



ǝןdɯıs ʇı dǝǝʞ oʇ ǝʞıן ı ʍouʞ noʎ 

Ask me about being an elitist jerk

Time for hype

postofficebuddy on 22 September 2011
Seece said:
postofficebuddy said:
Seece said:

Possible? Of course it's possible.

Likely? I don't think so. Gears 2 released early November and sold 4.3 mill during the holiday, with a 2 mill opening week. Isn't Uncharted 3 expected to be around 1 mill first week?

You're basically expecting 400/500k weeks during November ... which Black Ops PS3 just about managed ...


Gears 2 wasn't bundled. Plus the Uncharted franchise has shown incredibly good legs compared to Gears. Gears 2 will end around 150% of its first calendar year. U2 is almost at 200% of its first calendar year and will end close to 250%. And I'm think an opening comfortably higher than 1 million is likely for U3. Look at the preorder ratio for U2 compared to U3. Plus I think that this could be the entry in the series that really takes off in Japan and does almost COD or GTA like numbers in that region.

Basically you list a bunch of best case scenario I don't really have anything substantial to back it up possibilites, and I use previous data that's much better to go on.

I could say, depending on how many bundles, it might not make that much of a difference at all, that legs don't matter over the first few weeks, that going by pre orders it looks like it'll be in the region of a 1 mill opening week, and that your Japan statement is pure wishful thinking.


Where are you getting your preorder numbers?

U2 final preorders: 188,882

Current U3 preorders (7 weeks remaining): 233,811

U3 will probably open twice as high as U2 (850k first week).



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Carl on 22 September 2011

3.5 to 4 Million might be possible.

Over 4 Million, I don't think so. I don't think there's enough time.



                            

Mr Puggsly on 22 September 2011
Areym said:
I would love it if it sold that much. I'm thinking 2 ~ 2.5 mil. Still, anything is possible. This is probably the most hyped release for the PS3. It is the PS3's gear of war, so to speak.

As far as hype goes... its no Gears.

Pos Name Console Weeks to Launch Weekly Change Total
1 Gears of War 3 X360 7 55,222 1,310,881

 

12 Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception
PS3                       7 16,583 233,811


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EGG_OF_D00m on 22 September 2011

it will be close but i think it can but i wished sony bundle'd it with a $160gb ps3 for $249 that would be more effective



Jay520 on 22 September 2011

Nah, I don't think so.

Well, it could. I did find the online to be much more enjoyable than UC2 & there's new splitscreen mode...

Still, I don't think so. If it does, then I will be pleasantly surprised.



Mr Puggsly on 22 September 2011
leatherhat said:


U2 had an opening of 850k and U3 is well ahead in preorders. I'd say 1.5 million fw isn't out of the question. 

Pre orders can be funny sometimes...

3 MAG: Massive Action Game PS3 1 16,461 245,491

 

3 Uncharted 2: Among Thieves PS3 1 40,420 188,882


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