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Seece on 22 September 2011
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postofficebuddy said:
Seece said:

Possible? Of course it's possible.

Likely? I don't think so. Gears 2 released early November and sold 4.3 mill during the holiday, with a 2 mill opening week. Isn't Uncharted 3 expected to be around 1 mill first week?

You're basically expecting 400/500k weeks during November ... which Black Ops PS3 just about managed ...


Gears 2 wasn't bundled. Plus the Uncharted franchise has shown incredibly good legs compared to Gears. Gears 2 will end around 150% of its first calendar year. U2 is almost at 200% of its first calendar year and will end close to 250%. And I'm think an opening comfortably higher than 1 million is likely for U3. Look at the preorder ratio for U2 compared to U3. Plus I think that this could be the entry in the series that really takes off in Japan and does almost COD or GTA like numbers in that region.

Basically you list a bunch of best case scenario I don't really have anything substantial to back it up possibilites, and I use previous data that's much better to go on.

I could say, depending on how many bundles, it might not make that much of a difference at all, that legs don't matter over the first few weeks, that going by pre orders it looks like it'll be in the region of a 1 mill opening week, and that your Japan statement is pure wishful thinking.