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Forums - Movies & TV - The Box-Office Thread.


Can Disney beat Universal's record 2015 domestic gross - $2.445 billion?

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Weekend Estimates

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count /Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 N Contagion WB $23,135,000 - 3,222 - $7,180 $23,135,000 $60 1
2 1 The Help BV $8,691,000 -40.5% 2,935 +92 $2,961 $137,093,000 $25 5
3 N Warrior LGF $5,607,000 - 1,869 - $3,000 $5,607,000 $25 1
4 2 The Debt Focus $4,905,000 -50.5% 1,874 +48 $2,617 $21,993,000 $20 2
5 6 Colombiana TriS $4,000,000 -46.4% 2,354 -260 $1,699 $29,779,000 $40 3
6 5 Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox $3,875,000 -51.0% 2,887 -306 $1,342 $167,836,000 $93 6
7 4 Shark Night 3D Rela. $3,533,000 -58.0% 2,848 +42 $1,241 $14,797,000 $25 2
8 3 Apollo 18 W/Dim. $2,913,000 -66.5% 3,330 +2 $875 $15,001,000 $5 2
9 7 Our Idiot Brother Wein. $2,761,000 -49.3% 2,396 -159 $1,152 $21,420,000 $5 3
10 9 Spy Kids: All the Time in the World W/Dim. $2,506,000 -48.0% 2,544 -463 $985 $34,227,000 $27 4

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Contagion made $23.1m. Nice Prediction!!

Contagion made $23.1m. Nice Prediction!!

Thanks!I was spot on

spurgeonryan said:

Whoa Mordred..whoa! Didnt you change your mind at one point about that movie? :P

What do you mean?

Weekend Report: 'Contagion' Catches On

Contagion shot to the top of the box office, as one would expect of such a high-profile thriller, while Warriormustered little support and Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star and Creature ranked among the worst openings ever.

Not quite in the hot zone, Contagion's spread was contained at an estimated $23.1 million on close to 3,900 screens at 3,222 locations. Among September opening grosses, it ranked 15th, and it was a bit behind last September's top thriller The Town ($23.8 million). Its most comparable past movie, Outbreak, started at $13.4 million, or the equivalent of nearly $25 million adjusted for ticket price inflation, but that was in 1995, when first weekends were less pronounced and movies had more room to play out. Contagion could match or slightly exceed Outbreak's $67.7 million final haul, but it won't likely have more than 60 percent of the attendance. Distributor Warner Bros. noted that Contagion's polled audience composition was evenly split between genders and 81 percent age 25 years and older.

In second place, The Help continued its hearty run, despite taking its steepest hit yet. The book adaptation was down a respectable 40 percent from last weekend's holiday-enhanced result, earning an estimated $8.7 million. Its tally grew to $137.1 million in 33 days, surpassing The Smurfsto chart 14th for 2011 so far.

Though it was pumped up as a crowd pleaser, Warriorlacked punch in its debut, even by the sports drama genre's modest standards. It drew an estimated $5.6 million on nearly 2,100 screens at 1,869 locations, which was a lightweight result compared to The Fighter's $12.1 million and Fighting's $11.0 million, among past similar movies. Distributor Lionsgate's research showed that 66 percent of Warrior's audience was male and 51 percent was age 25 years and older. The movie, though, received an "A" in CinemaScore's audience polling, compared toContagion's sickly "B-."

The Debt took a standard hit, but held better than The American on the same weekend last year. The thriller was off 51 percent to an estimated $4.9 million and has collected $22 million in 12 days.

Colombiana rounded out the Top Five with an estimated $4 million ($29.8 million sum in 17 days), followed closely by Rise of the Planet of the Apes with $3.9 million ($167.8 million sum in 38 days). In a minor surprise,Colombiana held a bit better than Apes, dropping 46 percent versus 51 percent.

Labor Day's dueling horror movies, Apollo 18 and Shark Night 3D, were true to their genre and bled profusely, but they switched places. Shark ranked higher this time with an estimated $3.5 million (down 58 percent), whileApollo took in an estimated $2.9 million (down 67 percent). With more weekday pull, though, Apollo's ten-day total was higher than Shark's, $15 million to $14.8 million, respectively.

Meanwhile, Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star was a bust with an estimated $1.45 million at 1,500 single-screen locations, ranking 15th. That was less than half of Adam Sandler's previous lows as a producer, Grandma's Boyand Strange Wilderness. As low as Bucky went, it couldn't trump the nadir that was Creature.

Creature was one for the record books. At 1,507 single-screen locations, the horror movie scared up an estimated $331,000, which was the fifth lowest-grossing opening on record for a nationwide release and the second-worst in terms of per-location average. To put it another way, it was the worst ever for a movie playing at 1,500 locations or more. Its per-showing attendance was less than six people, though Bucky Larson wasn't much better at a little over eight.

In limited release, Kevin Hart's Laugh at My Pain impressed with an estimated $2 million at 97 locations, slotting 13th for the weekend. It was easily the best-performing comedy concert movie since Martin Lawrence Live: Runteldat in 2002.

Overall, the weekend was the low point of 2011, but that's not uncommon for the time of year. The post-Labor Day weekend is consistently the weakest or near the bottom of each year.

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Around-the-World Roundup: 'Smurfs,' 'Apes' Are One-Two Punch for Fifth Straight Weekend

For the fifth-straight weekend, The Smurfs finished in first place at the foreign box office ahead of perpetual bridesmaid Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Also, for the third-straight time, Final Destination 5 settled for third place. One minor shakeup, though, took place: Friends with Benefits expanded in to a handful of major European markets and leaped to fourth place.

The Smurfs
 dipped 41 percent to an estimated $14.9 million from 73 markets. It had a strong $915,000 opening in Greece, though it disappointed in Japan with just $815,000. The movie's five-week run on top is the longest such streak since Avatar led for 11 straight weekends from December 2009 to February 2010. The Smurfs' foreign total grew to $321.2 million, and its worldwide (domestic plus foreign) sum reached $457 million.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes
 added an estimated $12.5 million for a solid $206.1 million total. The movie held first place in Mexico ($2.5 million) and Brazil ($2 million), and its next major opening is set for Italy on Sept. 23. Meanwhile, Final Destination 5 was off 43 percent to an estimated $10.8 million from 45 territories. That brought its four-week total to $76.3 million.

On its best weekend so far, Friends with Benefits earned an estimated $10.2 million from 20 territories. The Justin Timberlake-Mila Kunis romantic comedy had solid openings in the United Kingdom ($2.9 million), Germany ($2.85 million) and France (first place with $1.8 million). The movie has so far grossed $29.2 million overseas. 

Captain America: The First Avenger
 invaded China this weekend and scored $5 million from 7,000 sites. That's a vast improvement over Thor's $2.9 million but off fromIron Man ($5.8 million) and Iron Man 2 ($7.9 million). Across all of its markets, Captain America added $8 million for a foreign total of $175 million. 

Domestic box office winner Contagion rolled out in to six territories this weekend and earned an estimatd $2.1 million. It earned a ho-hum $705,000 in Italy and a mighty $392,000 in Hong Kong, which was one of its major locations. The movie expands to South Korea on Sept. 22 and then throughout Europe in October.

Other Notables
 - Weekend Gross - Gross-to-Date (in millions)
Cowboys & Aliens - $5.5 - $58.5
Horrible Bosses - $5.3 - $78.2
Harry Potter 7B - $3.4 - $944
Zookeeper - $3.3 - $73.1
Super 8 - $3 - $126.5
Crazy, Stupid, Love. - $2.95 - $21
Kung Fu Panda 2 - $2.6 - $491
Green Lantern - $2.6 - $103.25
Mr. Popper's Penguins - $2.4 - $107.2
Cars 2 - $2.2 - $358
The Change-Up - $2.2 - $7.6
What a Man - $2.1 - $12.1
Bad Teacher - $1.7 - $110.2
The Help - $1.4 - $3.7
Bridesmaids - $1.2 - $114.5
Transformers 3 - $1 - $765 

EDIT: nevermind,giggs beat me to it.

The Help is going to have a mediocre run overseas compared to it's mighty domestic performance.

I think The Help will do like what Horrible Bosses did overseas.
The Smurfs might reach $500m worldwide!

Weekend Predictions: Will Lion Be King?

It could be an interesting week at the box office with three films opening wide, DriveI Don't Know How She Does It, and Straw Dogs, plus a fourth film being re-released wide,The Lion King. There's a lot of uncertainty in the box office predictions for the weekend and I've seen various predictions that have Drive winning the weekend,Contagion repeating on top, and some say The Lion King's 3D conversion will boost it to the top. Unfortunately, while there's a wide range of opinion regarding what film will top the box office chart, there are very few people who think this weekend will be as strong as last year when The Town opened with nearly $24 million and Easy A earned close to $18 million. It's unlikely the top two films will earn that much this year and we don't have the same depth either.

The Lion King is the biggest wildcard at the box office this weekend with predictions ranging from first place with $24 million, to barely making the top five with $8 million. There are some positive signs going forward, including the film's unbelievable reviews, plus when it was first released, it broke box office records for an animated film. The 3D version of The Nightmare Before Christmas did quite well before the Blu-ray was released, and that could be a good omen for this film's box office number. On the other hand, 3D hasn't done particularly well this year, certainly not compared to last year. With advance sales beating expectations, it should land on the high end of predictions and I'm going with first place and $15 million.

Drive is earning some of the best reviews of the year, but this might not be all good news. A lot of critics are praising it as an art house action film, which might be a tough sell to multiplex audiences. Ryan Gosling is coming off one of the biggest hits in his career, but he is still an unproven leading man, while his experience in action films is very limited. I'm going with a prediction of $13 million, which is a little higher than most, but I think it's going to be a pleasant surprise at the box office.

There is a slim chance Contagion will hold onto top spot at the box office, but if it does, it will be a really bad sign for the overall market. After opening with $22.40 million last weekend, the best the film can hope for this weekend is just over $13 million. If that's enough for top spot, there will be a huge year-over-year decline. Even third place with $12 million should be enough to keep the studio happy, as it will give the film roughly $42 million after ten days of release and put it on pace to hit close to $70 million. Its international numbers should be even better helping it reach profitability early in its home market run.

I Don't Know How She Does It will likely struggle at the box office during its opening weekend for several reasons. Firstly, it is aimed at more mature women, which is the target demographic that is least likely to rush out to theaters opening day, or even opening weekend. Secondly, it is the most likely demographic to read reviews, and this film's reviews are terrible. Finally, outside of Sex and the CitySarah Jessica Parker's box office numbers have been bad. She hasn't had a film open with more than $10 million since Failure to Launch, and that came out five years ago. I don't think this film will reach that market. In fact, fourth place with just over $8 million might be asking too much.

Straw Dogs is the final wide release of the week and it should finish right behind in fifth place with just under $8 million. It is opening in a few more theaters and with slightly better reviews, but the buzz is weak and a lot of people are simply dismissing the film as unnecessary. Also, the drawing power of the three stars, James MarsdenKate Bosworth, and Alexander Skarsgهrd, is suspect, to say the least. Granted, James Marsden has starred in a number of $100 million hits, but he's rarely been asked to carry a film. Half of Kate Bosworth's career box office totals come from just two films, Remember the Titans and Superman. Meanwhile, Alexander Skarsgهrd Hollywood career has barely begun, so untested is the best way to describe his box office drawing power. Straw Dogs might top I Don't Know How She Does It and earn fourth place with just over $9 million, but struggling to finish in the top five with just under $7 million is also a possibility. I'm going with fifth place with just under $8 million.