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Forums - Movies & TV - The Box-Office Thread.


Can Disney beat Universal's record 2015 domestic gross - $2.445 billion?

It will fall short of tha... 4 13.33%
Finding Dory, Doctor Stra... 20 66.67%
It's going to be very cl... 6 20.00%
spurgeonryan said:
Mordred11 said:
So how much do you guys think Contagion will gross in its opening weekend?

17-25 million. Anyone else have any boxoffice guesses?

My prediction for Contagion this weekend : $23.1M

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Weekend Predictions: Four Wide Releases for a Slow Weekend

The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend tends to be one of the worst, if not the worst weekend of the year, but that probably won't be the case this year. This weekend we have four wide releases, one of which is a bit of a surprise wide release. One of them, Contagion, could wind up being a real hit. The other three, well, they are not opening truly wide. Maybe The Warrior will be a sleeper hit, but the other two could struggle to reach the top ten. By comparison, this weekend last year Resident Evil: Afterlife 3D was a surprise hit with $26.65 million. It's not terribly likely any film will match that opening, but 2011 has better depth and hopefully that will be the key to victory.

Contagion is the latest from Steven Soderbergh, who not only won an Oscar for Traffic, but has made five $100 million movies over the years. His track record for quality and box office success is impressive, so why is this film opening on what is historically one of the worst weekends of the year? That could hurt its box office chances, but at least the competition is weak and there's no other film, new or holdover, that has a real shot at first place. In fact, it could surprise and earn $30 million or more. Its reviews are impressive enough that if it were opening in November, we would be talking about its Awards Season buzz. With 80% positive reviews, it wouldn't be enough to be a major player, but a couple of the actors would be contenders for acting awards, perhaps the script would get some attention. Speaking of the actors, this film's ensemble cast is amazing with several Oscar nominees / winners, as well as an international cast that should help international numbers. Pie in the sky is $30 million, but $24 million is more likely.

The Help missed top spot when it opened, but then climbed into first place and stayed there for three weeks in a row. The last time that happened, not counting films that didn't open wide and then expanded, was Rain Man in 1988. (Stakeout and Flashdance had similar runs.) However, back then, the industry was very different and there wasn't such a strong emphasis of the opening weekend, so comparing the two results is a bit of apples and oranges. Or more apples and quincesThe Help won't be able to extend its winning streak to four weekends, but it should hold on well and earn second place with $11 million. At this pace, getting to $150 million is the goal.

Warrior is the only other wide release of note, and it's not even opening in 2,000 theaters. However, while it is not opening truly wide, its reviews are truly amazing and some are comparing it to Rocky. However, it is also a Mixed Martial Arts movie, and that's still not a mainstream sport. The box office success of a sports movie correlates very strongly with the popularity of the sport. MMA is on the cusp of being popular enough to carry a movie, but I don't know if its there yet. On the other hand, given its reviews, it could have long legs. Look for just under $10 million over the weekend, but hopefully word-of-mouth will result in long legs.

The Debt was a surprise hit last weekend, and with 77% positive reviews, it should hold on better than most this weekend. In fact, it could top $6 million, which is more than many people were predicting it would open with. Just under $6 million is probably more likely, but that's still a strong result and will put it on pace to surpass $30 million, which is likely more than it cost to make.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes is already a major hit, and this weekend it should add close to $5 million to its box office tally.

The next wide release is Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star. Unlike the first two wide releases of the week, this one is not earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. In fact, at the moment it has no reviews. Some are comparing the film to Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star, but that's not a good sign. Dickie Robertswasn't a good movie, but it looks Oscar-worthy compared to this one. It also broke a record at the box office, but not in a good way. (It had the lowest box office for a film that opened in first place in the modern box office era.) I've seen some predictions for Bucky Larson that are as high as fifth place with just over $5 million, but I've also seen some analysts predict it won't make $5 million in total. Since it is opening in just 1,500 theaters, $3 million could be as good as it gets.

The final wide release of the week is Creature, which is being released by The Bubble Factory. Never heard of The Bubble Factory? I'm not surprised. They made a string of movies in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but none of them were hits and most earned terrible reviews. This film was set for a limited release, but in a surprise it is coming out in 1,507 theaters on Friday. The sudden wide release means the distributor won't have enough time to promote the movie. There are almost no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, and the biggest name in the movie is Sid Haig. This film has little hope of reaching the top ten and getting to the Mendoza Line might be asking too much. Just getting to $1 million might be out of the question.



Their Contagion prediction is close to mine.Hopefully we're wrong and it does more than that,it looks like a great movie

'Help' Posts Longest Daily No. 1 Run Since 'Sixth Sense'

As of Thursday, The Help has topped the box office for 25 days in a row. That marked the longest uninterrupted streak since The Sixth Sense spent 35 days in first place in late summer 1999. Meet the Parents had the previous best post-Sixth Sense run at 24 days. With Contagionopening today, The Help's streak will almost certainly come to an end.

In the nearly ten years that Box Office Mojo has comprehensively tracked daily data, only three other movies have held the top spot for over three straight weeks. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring was in first from Dec. 19, 2001 to Jan. 10, 2002, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King took the crown from Dec. 17, 2003 to Jan. 8, 2004, and The Passion of the Christ reigned from Feb. 25, 2004 to March 18, 2004. Each of these movies opened on a Wednesday and was in first for 23 days. 

While all of these movies were extremely successful, streaks like this are more connected to the time of year and competition than the performance of the movie in question. For example, if it hadn't been for strong opening days from Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel,Sherlock Holmes and The Book of EliAvatar would have held on to the top spot for 49 straight days. In The Help's case, it can thank anemic performances from late summer releases like Spy Kids: All the Time in the WorldConan the BarbarianFright NightDon't Be Afraid of the DarkApollo 18 and Shark Night 3D

The Help has tallied $128.4 million in 30 days. It led its first two days before yielding to Rise of the Planet of the Apes each day of the Aug. 12-14 weekend. Its current streak began on Monday, Aug. 15, and continued through Thursday, Sept. 8. 

The help is a box-office freak

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Forecast: 'Contagion' to Grip the Box Office

This weekend, Contagion spreads onto over 3,700 screens at 3,222 locations (including 257 IMAX venues) and is poised to end The Help's reign. Warrior trains to be a slow-burning crowd pleaser on close to 2,100 screens at 1,869 locations, while Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star and Creature should be contenders for the worst opening title, hitting 1,500 and 1,507 single-screen locations, respectively.

With a rash of familiar faces (Matt DamonGwyneth PaltrowKate WinsletJude Law, etc.) and deadly disease thriller storyline, Contagion recalls Outbreak, only with a darker, grittier, more global bent. Back in 1995, Outbreakdebuted to $13.4 million or the equivalent of nearly $25 million adjusted for ticket price inflation. Contagion's infection and potential end-of-humanity angles also echo the recent zombie craze, and the movie's even opening in the same mid-September slot that the Resident Evilfranchise is known for. Contagion's diffuseness, though, may not make it a threat to September's record books.

Mixed martial arts drama Warrior looks like the type of movie that people need a lot of convincing to see, and that's been reflected in its marketing campaign that has included extensive screenings, sneak previews, audience testimonials and more. Distributor Lionsgate believes that people will like Warrior if they see it, but such belief doesn't always translate to box office, as the distributor found with Peaceful Warrior, another sports drama with Nick Nolte that grossed $4 million from two releases. Outside of The Fighter and the Rocky franchise, the box office history of comparable fighting movies (Gladiator (1992)Streets of GoldPrice of GloryPlay It to the BoneAnnapolis, etc.) doesn't bode well for Warrior.

Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star is the latest comedy from Adam Sandler's Happy Madison Productons, but it's more Grandma's Boy than Deuce Bigalow: Male Gigolo. Its television ads feature some guy telling the audience that the movie is funny, but it doesn't even convey that the movie's about a porn star. With a title nearly as generic as Warrior's, Creature was a last-minute addition to the nationwide schedule and seems more amateurish and less appealing than the similar, sub-$1-million-grossing Venom from Sept. 2005.

In Box Office Mojo's reader polling, Contagion ran rampant, scoring 27.5 percent for opening weekend, which was stronger than The Adjustment Bureau (23.5 percent) but weaker than The Happening (32.5 percent) among past titles. Warrior sported just under 11 percent for opening weekend, trailing The Fighter's 16.1 percent.Bucky Larson logged a pathetic 2.1 percent for opening weekend, which was worse than such lows as The Virginity HitThe Brothers Solomon and Let's Go to PrisonCreature wasn't polled.

The Forecast, Sept. 9-11
1. Contagion - $24 million
2. The Help - $10 million
3. Warrior - $8.5 million
4. The Debt - $5.5 million
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $4.7 million
Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star - $1.6 million
Creature - $0.4 million

Bar for Success
Taking into account that it's a high-profile, all-star thriller but without the glamor, Contagion needs to break into the $20 million range. Warrior needs to get close to $10 million to firmly establish itself. Same goes for Bucky LarsonCreature has no shot at justifying its nationwide release.

I wouldnt be surprised if Help does more than $10M


Warner Bros.


-- / $2,492
$8,030,000 / 1



Buena Vista


+104.9% / $910
$131,074,000 / 31





-- / $963
$1,800,000 / 1



Focus Features


+120% / $771
$18,542,000 / 10





+157.1% / $495
$26,944,000 / 15





+181.9% / $381
$165,061,000 / 36





+263.1% / $353
$12,270,000 / 8



Weinstein / Dimension


+151.4% / $263
$12,963,000 / 8



Weinstein Company


+124% / $348
$19,494,000 / 15



Warner Bros.


+190.3% / $534
$76,949,000 / 43





Friday estimates are in.Expected #s for Contagion & The Help.

You can see the full chart here

The Help has the smallest percentage increase (from the top 10).

The Help has the smallest percentage increase (from the top 10).

I doubt that it's going to cross 10M for the weekend with this friday number