Not even the foreign markets will save Real Steel.Unless it does something like $350M.

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Don't you think that this really shouldn't be considered a boxing debut since it doesn't even involve boxing between two humans. This should be lumped in with robot movies. A different genre all together.

Forecast: 'Footloose,' 'The Thing' Remakes Face Off

Two remakes of movies from the 1980s and a bird watching comedy enter the box-office arena this weekend, though reigning champ Real Steel should put up a strong fight as well. Reaching roughly 4,500 screens at 3,549 locations, the Footloose remake leads the way with the fifth-widest opening ever in October. The prequel/remake of The Thing hits 3,500 screens at 2,997 locations, while The Big Year opens at 2,150 venues, most of which are single-screen.

The original Footloose was one of the most popular movies of 1984, ranking seventh on the year with $80 million (or the equivalent of around $190 million adjusted for ticket price inflation). Directed by Hustle and Flow's Craig Brewer, the remake has had an aggressive marketing campaign pitching the movie as a fun, youthful dance flick for the MTV crowd (it's produced by MTV Films). The dance movie genre is a fairly successful one, with bigger hits like Step Up and Stomp the Yard opening to $20.7 million and $21.8 million, respectively. Footloose is saddled with a somewhat antiquated premise (Banning dancing? Really?), though, and the recent disinterest in remakes should translate in to a debut slightly below those two movies.

Two years before Footloose became a huge hit, John Carpenter's The Thing earned just $19.6 million, or around $53 million adjusted for inflation. 2011's The Thing takes place immediately prior to Carpenter's flick, which means it should technically be classified as a prequel. However, that's not part of the marketing, so the majority of audiences won't know that going in. With the same setting (Antarctica), an almost identical story (shape shifting alien terrorizes scientists), and the exact same title, most prospective viewers are going to assume The Thing is a remake, and therefore it should be addressed as such in box office discussions.

The Thing's marketing has mainly focused the icy terror around star Mary Elizabeth Winstead, and lately has utilized the vague tagline "We All Fear Something." None of this has been distinct enough to push the movie out of the confines of the horror remake genre, and there's no reason to expect this to debut outside of the range of second tier remakes like The Crazies ($16.1 million) and The Last House on the Left ($14.1 million). The movie does have one major advantage, though: it's the first pure horror movie in over a month, and gets the jump on the Halloween season ahead of Paranormal Activity 3. Universal's tracking suggests a low double-digits opening driven primarily by male audiences.

The Big Year is a bit of an enigma. With the director of The Devil Wears Prada and Marley and Me, and starring the formidable comedy trio of Steve Martin, Owen Wilson and Jack Black, it's a wonder that The Big Year's marketing campaign didn't really kick off until about a month ago. That might be because the movie is about bird watching, which isn't exactly a thrilling premise. To mitigate that problem, distributor 20th Century Fox's marketing has largely ignored the birds and instead positioned it as a generic, feel-good bucket list movie. In the process, though, The Big Year has been stripped of any distinctive hook, giving audiences little reason to check it out.

In Box Office Mojo's "When Will You See It" polling, over 21 percent of users voted to see The Thing on opening weekend. While that's off from fellow horror remakes Friday the 13th (30.5 percent), A Nightmare on Elm Street (27 percent) and Halloween (26 percent), it's still incredibly high considering the relative obscurity of the original. Footloose shimmied its way to an 8 percent opening weekend score, which is up from all three Step Up movies and Stomp the Yard but a bit off from 2009's Fame remake (8.7 percent). Finally, The Big Year earned a 7 percent rating, which is down from practically everything the cast and director have recently been involved in with the exception of Gulliver's Travels (6.3 percent).

Weekend Forecast (Oct. 14-16):
1. Footloose - $18.3 million
2. Real Steel - $16.9 million
3. The Thing - $16.5 million
4. The Ides of March - $6.5 million
5. Dolphin Tale - $6.4 million
6. The Big Year - $6.3 million

Bar for Success
Based on the general strength of the dancing genre and the overwhelming popularity of the original, Footloose should at least reach the high teen-millions. Considering it's a B-level remake, The Thing will get a pass at $15 million, while The Big Year should be in good shape in the low teen-millions.

Weekend Predictions: Will the Box Office Footlose or Footwin?

Firstly, I would like to apologize for the Footloose / Footlose pun in the title. It is unacceptable, even by my standards. Secondly, we are going to lose. This weekend last year Jackass 3D broke the record for biggest October weekend and there's no chance that feat will be replicated this weekend. In fact, there's almost no chance this weekend will match Red's opening last year. Footloose, The Thing, and The Big Year won't earn $50 million over the weekend combined. We really need the win, but all evidence points to a tough loss in the year-over-year comparison.

Footloose might be the lone bright spot as far as new releases go. Not only is it the widest new release of the weekend, it is also earning the best reviews. The film is generating quite a lot of buzz, and that buzz has turned positive. Much earlier, a lot of fans of the first film were calling this movie sacrilege. Now more are admitting this film could actually be an improvement over its predecessor. On the other hand, it's box office chances are much less rosy. Best case scenario has this film earning just over $20 million, but it could also fail to reach $15 million. I'm going with first place and $17.5 million.

Real Steel showed surprising strength last weekend, especially in terms of its internal multiplier. This implies that the film was a bigger his amongst kids than previously anticipated and this could help its legs. That theory will be tested this weekend. If the film drops 40%, it will be all but confirmed. If it drops more than 50%, then it will be called into question. A 40% drop-off would give the film more than $16 million during its sophomore stint. This is possible, but $15 million is more likely. This would be a good result, except that the film cost a lot to make and profitability is a long ways away.

The Thing is the second widest release of the week, but its reviews are weaker than the other two releases. Even most of the positive reviews are arguing this movie isn't as good as the original was. Expectations are all over the place for this film with some predicting it will battle for first place with just over $16 million all the way down to barely more than half that figure. I'm going to go with $13 million, but I'm unsure how accurate that will be in the end.

The final wide release of the week is The Big Year. This film also has a wide range of expectations with some predicting it will earn third place with $10 million, while others are going with sixth place with just $6 million. Its mixed reviews and low theater count suggest the lower end is more likely. Look for fourth place with $7 million, but it could be a close race.

Both Dolphin Tale and Ides of March will be looking to grab the final spot in the top five with between $6 million and $7 million. It will likely be a coin toss in the end and they might flip places over the weekend. On the other hand, if The Big Year struggles, they could both land in the top five.

Friday estimates

Weekend Estimates

Thanks,GIGGS!
Wasn't expecting Real Steel to take first place again,but these are just estimates.#1 and #2 might swap between each other.
Footloose has a mighty fine 1st weekend.

Weekend Report: Remakes Can't Retire 'Real Steel'

Two 80s remakes and a bird-watching movie weren't able to knock down Real Steel, which held well enough to repeat in first place this weekend. Footloose wasn't far behind, but also wasn't all that impressive, while The Thing missed the mark and The Big Year bombed. Overall box office was off around 33 percent from the same frame last year when Jackass 3-D led with $50.3 million.

Real Steel dipped 40 percent to an estimated $16.3 million. That hold isn't quite as strong as Secretariat or Red from last October, but it's still solid in its own right. Through 10 days in theaters, the Hugh Jackman robot boxing movie has earned $51.7 million.

Footloose was a close second with an estimated $16.1 million. It debuted below Stomp the Yard ($21.8 million and the first two Step Up movies ($20.7 million and $18.9 million), but did end up slightly above Step Up 3-D ($15.8 million).

While the Footloose remake at least held its own, The Thing was an outright disappointment with a meager estimated $8.7 million. That's lower than most horror remakes from the last decade, including second-tier ones like The Fog ($11.7 million) and The Stepfather ($11.6 million). According to distributor Universal Pictures, the audience was 57 percent male and 56 percent under 30 years old. The CinemaScore was a weak "B-," indicating that the movie is going to have a tough time surviving opposite Paranormal Activity 3 next weekend.

Read the full report here.

The Thing is actually a remake of a remake. John Carpenter's The Thing was a remake of 50's sci-fi movie The Thing From Beyond. The Carpenter movie was actually really good but people don't get excited about alien flicks that take place in Antarctica and would rather see Will Smith say that he's going to kick E.T.'s ass for whatever reason.

I don't see why anyone would want to see the Footloose remake unless Julianne Hough gets naked. Julianne Hough doesn't get naked, does she?