and 3 that are very close: Fifa 08, PES 08, and NFS Pro Street

and Uncharted will reach a million. It seems to sell at least 100k per week (thanks mostly to europe)

Those fair to Sony would say that last week was a good week for it versus MS.   Sales after Japan reports will be 100k more than the X360.

But for your prediction, it was a bad week.  Sony is 7M behind X360.  That means it has to sell 130k+ more boxes each and every week, or it won't catch up in 2008.  As of now, you're -30k in the hole on your prediction.  Sony will need now 160k more than MS in the current week to put you even.  Japan's new years sales will help.  But will it be enough?

Better push your predictions back a year. 

Finalsquall,

I agree with your viewpoint most people are behind the Wii since it appears to be winning now but disagree strongly that this will suddenly change since it hasn't done so already. These types of things perpetuate itself. The Wii hasn't even managed to complete a run with not being supply constraint for a long period of time. It has a got to have it feel to it. Especially if you are social and have a lot of people at your house, not too mention many people actually just like it.

Now on topic 20% is good and the PS3 has had a good endrun and should of built some momentum but at the cost of burning all of its available price cuts and stripped inventory. PS2 sales are going to finally dwindle away this year and I don't think it will be possible for Sony to drop the price until next year.

Both Nintendo and MS will be able too. In fact I do predict that MS will try to get teh Premium to 249 by August but will probably be 299. Nintendo will not cut the price until stock stays on the shelves for more than 2 weeks.

Also finally the PS3 will have to outsell the 360 by 135K a week to pass the 360. There will be some weeks that the PS3 will do this and others it won't come close.

I don't see any real oppurtinuty for the PS3 to get major sales spikes it had this year that pushed it so I just think it will dwindle.

Sales spikes
PS3
US/Japan Launch
European Launch
60 GB price cut
40GB model and 80GB price cut
Holidays

360
Halo 3
Holidays

Wii
US/European/Japan Launch
production increase in april
production increase in August
Holidays(with stockpile release)

In fact I will predict that PS3 and 360 will be withing 30K a week of each other after January. PS3 will continue to outsell in europe aside from the UK and the 360 in the US. Japan sales will drop back down to the 15K -23K level. The PS3 will end 2008 at 23%marketshare depending on the Wii it could even drop overall but gain on the 360.

Don't be too sure. $399/399EUR is a mass market price - in inflation-adjusted currency, that's about $299/299EUR in 2000, when the PS2 launched. Now that HDTVs are finally affordable, the PS3 is going to be the Blu-Ray player of choice. The PS3 will make up most of the ground during 2008's holiday season, when all its big games are out, and another price drop hits (down to $299/299EUR).

 ..um I think your being really selective about the 360 spikes.

heres more to add.

elite  introduced promising less RRoD (lie)

Price cut on all 3 models -20 core/arcade, -50 premium, -30 elite

2 games bundled with premium and elite

arcade sku replaces core and adds features (hdmi, wirless controllers in package, 512 memory card packed in) 

Halo 3 360 sku introduced  and is still out meaning wasn't a limited edition.

and last but not least Bioshock it sold systems in 07 

399 is not mass market price. 299 was not mass market price. 299 was just outside mass market price close enough to allow for brisk sales at the PS2s introduction. The PS3 needs to get to 250 and below to acheive mass market price for today.

As for Blu Ray I do predict that come July you will start seeing stand alone players dropping to the sub 199 range. You will also see HD-DVD drop below that price on a sustained basis. Such price drops would have an effect on which player would be the player of choice.

 Which brings me to another point. MS could still create another SKU with an integrated HD DVD ROM to spike sales.

Also don't expect MS not to have some big games ready for next year nor Nintendo for that matter. Finally I don't think Sony will hit $299 until 2009.

Elite was a price increase and a sales psike didn't follow

Price cuts were one I did forget about htough

I didn't include Motorstorm with the PS3 solely because they are really system sellers

Halo3 360 SKU have not been selling that well

Bioshock?

Also the 360 has not been swinging in sales as wildly as the PS3 has.

BTW I have no intention of ever owning a 360. I did own a PS3(it was stolen along with My Wii HDTV and bunch of other stuff when I got robbed back in April). I will probably get another ina year or two.

Well, only another 40%+ marketshare to catch up to where they were, ain't nothing to brag about folks.

 It doesn't matter, when you (the company) have been convicted of antitrust, you have to start playing by different rules across the ENTIRE company.  If Microsoft were to split the gaming division into a seperate company and start playing on an equal field, I'm sure it wouldn't be a problem.  Fortunately (for all of us) they are judged differently because of the anti-competitiveness of the other divisions.

the power of the playstation brand comes through in holiday season, as i had previously been suspecting, but lacked conviction to mention in the past few months. earlier in the year i thought it'll be a factor, but as ps3 sales waned, i thought the brand start losing its luster. apparently the playstation brand is still alive and well!

we'll see how 2008 shapes up for 360 and ps3. at this point it's too hard to call... my believe is that 360 during non-holiday season will show better strength than holiday seasons. (different from saying 360 will do better than ps3 in non-holiday season) just how much better... i think after all's said and done across the globe ps3 will have a very slight edge in console sales, largely because of the strength of its 2008 exclusives. if i have to put in an estimate, i'd put in a 500k unit difference.