it could have 99% chance of doing it and certain people would still vote no.

I voted that it will just miss it but are you guys even thinking about this in mathematical terms? It's behind by 600k currently, and as I pointed out at the start of the thread even if a price cut doubled average weekly sales, a highly unlikely proposition, it would probably only increase sales by 60%-80%, it would only put it marginally in the black. And that's not even accounting for the boost that Kinect gave last year. Plus one must consider the likely disruptive impact that the PS3 cut will have on 360 in EMEAA.

IF MS wouldn't have said anything, I'd say PS3 would take this year for sure. But they've made too much noise now.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-08-24-microsofts-chris-lewis-interview

What is close? 1%? under 10%?

If the official price for 360 stays as it is I think it'll have a hard time clawing back the lead it's giving away at the moment. Looks like the deficit it's going to carry in to the Holidays will be between 800K and 1 million off target. It's hard to see how 360 is going to claw back nearly 1 million units. Americas loves 360. But most of the rest of the world is going to see that $50 (equivalent) PS3 price cut as a pretty good deal. 360 can't do it in the Americas alone. And UK/Aussie aren't enough of a support crew to help it over the hurdle.

Official price cut: can do.

No official price cut: unlikely.

I predict a cut early october now, in the new Q.

By October it could be down by a Million.

Even with a pricecut now, I don't think it will do it.

not even a glimmer of a chance without a pricecut

Imo even a 50$-Cut wouldn't be enough to have a new peak year.

Not impossible, but they definitely need to cut their price before Black Friday. If they do that, they should be able to make it I think. The MW3 bundle will sell a lot, I can tell you that.