Simple question, really: which system will see the most significant drop off in the coming weeks as the holiday effect wears off?

I think the DS (or Wii, if you only want home consoles) will see the largest drop in raw figures, if for no other reason than that it has the farthest to fall.

I think the PS3 may see the largest percentage drop, because its not only going to see a depression from Christmas, but also see the effects of a price drop wearing off (according to Source, we're already seeing that happening, with a 75% increase in expected sales in November but "only" 50% in December).

I could see the Wii going either way -- it could fall the hardest (thus negating the prediction I just made) if hardware is as unavailable next month as it was for the DS last January (last January there was almost nothing for the DS after a hard Christmas rush), but IF the product is there, I could also see it holding up amazingly well as the people who wanted one for Christmas get one now.

Any other thoughts? I think the 360 falls right in the middle, personally, so I don't have much to say about it, but if someone else thinks the 360 will hold up well and/or fall particularly hard, speak up!  

I think Wii or DS, simply because they have the farthest to fall as you pointed out and also I'm pessimistic and think there will be stock shortages as well.

Worldwide, much of the DS and Wii's losses will be made up by high Japanese sales for the next few weeks, and I think the 360 will be the worst hit, although it will have similar drops in PAL and US

All depends on availability of nintendos consoles. if available it will sell well but if not could nosedive.

sony will sell 25% of dec and microsoft will sell 30-35% of dec. I just thought of those numbers and is a guess but you never know

Given the ~400k prelim hardware numbers from Japan I really don't think the Wii will drop the largest percentage at least not week over week. But I do think that in terms of raw numbers it will far the fallest of the consoles...because as you said it easily has the farthest to fall.

I tend to agree with your assessment of the PS3 though I think it will be bolstered by the fact that being the most expensive console makes it the least appealing post X-mas as people are hurting in the wallet as it is....to be clear yes this effects everyone but I am saying that psychologically it will have a far bigger impact on potential PS3 customers than 360 or Wii customers.

 Take your pick of market, really. I meant Worldwide, but the thread is big enough for several discussions. 

percentage wise: PS3
sales wise: wii

Others could be important for the Wii this week. By the looks of it Japan has gone up, lots, but NA has come down, lots.
So it depends on how many units Nintendo shipped out to Others this week.

Percentage: PS3. Who's going to spend a minimum of $400 on luxury technology if they didn't at Christmas?

Wii or DS - they were (!) supply constrained, so as supply is unlikely to meet demand for a while, 200k+ sales are in order for both.

Still, Wii or DS will have the highest absolute loss, but in terms of business it won't hurt Nintendo at all.