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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo stock continues alarming collapse... 5 year low. Reggie comments.

Everyone needs to themselves (and logical thinking) a favor and actually crack open a book about the stock market (I recommend Matt Taibi in particular). This is, historically, what a price drop in a week means on the stock market: JACK. FREAKIN'. CRAP. We have known for DECADES about how easily stock markets are manipulated and how badly they fluctuate



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I've been watching it the last few weeks. It's down to $23.73 a share today. If it gets down to $18.00, I'm buying!




8th gen predictions. (made early 2014)
PS4: 60-65m
WiiU: 30-35m
X1: 30-35m
3DS: 80-85m
PSV: 15-20m

shuraiya said:

With all the hype surrounding the wii and the great success it found with the casual crowd, Nintendo's stock got greatly overvalued. The share price couldn't possibly be maintained unless Nintendo managed to keep a firm hold on the casual crowd; they have proven that the casuals are too fickle and the entertainment market to unstable for that. Right now the the share price is being revalued. It will continue to be erratic until investors get a better idea of what Nintendo is attempting to accomplish; When that happens, a more reasonable and stable price will be set. One that accounts for the fact that Nintendo is no longer the sole patron of the casual crowd and that they now cater to a portion of the hardcore crowd.

 I personally would not put any money into Nintendo stock right now until I have a better idea of the viability of their vision. I will monitor the situation closely and try to establish what I believe to be a reasonable price point based on information as it becomes available; that information is still much too vague. Buying Nintendo's stock at this time will be more a matter of faith than the technical and fundamentals.


Damn fickle casuals!

They bought Wii Fit, but when Nintendo came out with another version modelled specifically for intense workouts ala P90X or Insanity, and another with hip-hop dance workouts, and another with hand-weight shells for the Wii remote with aerobic exercises, no one bought those!

And those are the same stupid casuals who bought New Super Mario Bros. in 2006, but when Nintendo came out with NSMB2 in 2009, they didn't touch it!

And they bought Wii Sports, but then when Nintendo made full-fledged co-op action/adventure games with the Wii Sports mechanics, they turned their noses up!

They bought 2D platformers and RPGs, and "non-games" like Brain Age by the millions on DS, but say "talk to the hand" when they make up the brunt of the 3DS effort!

Stupid, stupid Nintendo. Trusting those fickle casuals. They get distracted so easily.

Have you ever shone a laser pointer on the floor in front of a casual? They'll chase it around trying to pick the dot up off the ground! It's hilarious.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

like I said in another thread. This is great for Nintendo.

They can buy back their shares cheap. Once WiiU comes out and they start to climb they can sell sell sell..



 

 

menx64 said:

 Nintendo knows that too, they are not dumbs either, market saturation says hi, nintendo could probably have done wiifit3,4 & 5 but none of them were going to do the numbers of the original wiifit, and the same goes for most of their games... That´s probably the other reason why smash was still at $45- $49, mario kart was a $49, NSMB $49, they sell a lot over the time... Investors are not dumb either, the market is just  reacting to the new consoles, 3ds is doing ok, the software lineup for this hollyday is stellar and it´ll take it to the roof of the charts with no problem, the wiiU is nintendo's new bet, and besides all the bad comments it has a great future ahead of it, as big as the wii? maybe, maybe not, nobody knows...

 for some additional reading, this is a little old, (but still) if you want to know who "owns" nintendo this could be interesting...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/43310-who-is-buying-nintendo-stock

Market saturation? The Wii Fit market is so underserved and desperate that Wii Fit Plus HAS, in fact, matched the sales of the original Wii Fit, or is very close. And the idea is not to do a bunch of straight sequels, but to explore the other possibilities of the new genre. Like doing DKC, Kirby, Wario and Yoshi on top of Mario, or doing Flash Focus, cookbook software, English training and Big Brain Academy on top of Brain Age.

Instead Nintendo is reverting to doing 3D Mario, 3D Kid Icarus, Ocarina of Time and Luigi's Mansion. These types of games were a strategy for low stock prices for Gamecube, and that's where Nintendo's stock is headed.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

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I bet Microsoft and Apple are watching Nintendo's share prices closely. If the shares were to drop to GameCube levels they might pounce for a take over. Seeing as MS wanted to buy Nintendo during the GameCube era I could see them watching these numbers.

I think Nintendo's stock is going to be in a free fall, when WiiU launches I don't expect it to perform as well as Wii and 3DS needs one hell of a Christmas to gain some ground. I'm waiting for the stock to take a hammering next year, then I might have to buy some, Nintendo is good at one thing other then making software and that is making money. Sure the stock may be down right now and they might have a bad generation next gen. But one things for sure , their going to bounce back and they will bounce back big time.

As for Nintendo buying more of its stock back due to the selling. Isn't it insider trading to buy your companies stock when you know its cheap? Using your inside knowledge of what your company is releasing to buy the stock cheap? If its not insider trading then yah Nintendo better get on that. Nintendo should own at least 50% of its stock to protect it from a hostile take over. Last I heard they controlled less then 20%.

Share holders are panicking, Nintendo isn't going anywhere and they will bounce back!



-JC7

"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer

 

kowenicki said:
MrT-Tar said:
Just out of interest, does Nintendo stock historically fall whenever they announce a new platform, or at least a new home console?



That super low point in 2003 was just before GBA SP came out and GameCube was tanking in the North America market. I like how in 2006, Nintendo stock worth doubles in a year after Wii launched.



Aiddon said:
Everyone needs to themselves (and logical thinking) a favor and actually crack open a book about the stock market (I recommend Matt Taibi in particular). This is, historically, what a price drop in a week means on the stock market: JACK. FREAKIN'. CRAP. We have known for DECADES about how easily stock markets are manipulated and how badly they fluctuate


I think you've still got some reading to do.

 

Yes the markets fluctuate, no, not all activity in the market is standard fluctuation.

 

This decline in NTDOY is the result of several factors, only half of which are attributable to Nintendo themselves, the other half being comprised of global politics and finance.

1) We're all in a bad economy, the entire NYSE is down 900 points in the last month and a half.

2) Japan is in the midst of a nucular catastrophy

3) The world is on the brink of WWIII

 Now for Nintendos part:

1) They let the Wii die an early death (I still don't get why, but U may yet make things clear in the comming years or two)

2) They launched 3DS without a AAA first party ap (you think they would have learned that lesson from the GC...)

3) They are releasing yet another piece of ground breaking tech that most people won't understand until they play it.

 

 

Its not just standard market movement.  The market IS very volitile right now, and that does account for up to even %50 of the decline, but the rest is due to speculation on Nintendos questionable future no doubt.  That said, I expect it to start correcting back upwards soon and should be back around $27 by mid fall.

 

 Edit: that is of course barring the actuall comencement of WWIII, if they get that ball rolling all bets are off.

 

 

 

 



TheGameFather said:
Aiddon said:
Everyone needs to themselves (and logical thinking) a favor and actually crack open a book about the stock market (I recommend Matt Taibi in particular). This is, historically, what a price drop in a week means on the stock market: JACK. FREAKIN'. CRAP. We have known for DECADES about how easily stock markets are manipulated and how badly they fluctuate


I think you've still got some reading to do.

 

Yes the markets fluctuate, no, not all activity in the market is standard fluctuation.

 

This decline in NTDOY is the result of several factors, only half of which are attributable to Nintendo themselves, the other half being comprised of global politics and finance.

1) We're all in a bad economy, the entire NYSE is down 900 points in the last month and a half.

2) Japan is in the midst of a nucular catastrophy

3) The world is on the brink of WWIII

 Now for Nintendos part:

1) They let the Wii die an early death (I still don't get why, but U may yet make things clear in the comming years or two)

2) They launched 3DS without a AAA first party ap (you think they would have learned that lesson from the GC...)

3) They are releasing yet another piece of ground breaking tech that most people won't understand until they play it.

 

 

Its not just standard market movement.  The market IS very volitile right now, and that does account for up to even %50 of the decline, but the rest is due to speculation on Nintendos questionable future no doubt.  That said, I expect it to start correcting back upwards soon and should be back around $27 by mid fall.

 

 Edit: that is of course barring the actuall comencement of WWIII, if they get that ball rolling all bets are off.

 

 

 

 

I think you're fogetting one thing.

Nintendo inability to make it's previsions year in and out has been weighting heavilly on the stock and because of that a lot of investors have decided to stay away from the stock... I don't see them doing better at hitting their forecast in the next 12 months so I don't think the situation will improve a lot there...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

It's simply getting adjusted to where it should be.

Nintendo has been the market leader (by a large margin) in both game platform markets for a while now.

At present, it is not certain if Nintendo can continue to lead the market, and it seems inevitable that the WiiU will sell less than the Wii, and that the 3DS will sell less than the DS.

Also take into account that Sony seems to have more of a stronghold in the BRIC countries.