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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo stock continues alarming collapse... 5 year low. Reggie comments.

sethnintendo on 19 June 2011

1 year from now....

Jim Cramer - "buy, buy, buy"



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sethnintendo on 19 June 2011
metalmonstar said:
Oh wow, now I feel dumb NTDOY is an OTC listing not the actual Tokyo Exchange stock. Alright so I ran some numbers using Nintendo's 2010 value. Nintendo has 141,669,000 common stocks on the market and I don't believe that has changed. Their net income for 2010 was about 2.5 billion dollars. This gives an Earning per share of 17.35. On their fiscal report they mentioned high and low stock prices per quarter. The high average I got was 309.73 and the low was 240.35. So I got a PE or 13.85-17.85. On the Tokyo Exchange the stock is selling for about $188.11. I can't seem to find this year's projections but I am sure what they end up with will be lower than predicted and R&D cost for the Wii U will cut into net income. I could certainly see the stock continuing to drop. It may be a good time to buy if you think the Wii U and 3DS will come through big. Really the main thing your hoping though is that other investors get back into Nintendo in order to raise the price. The new systems could do great but if the demand for the stock doesn't rise, you aren't making any money.

http://www.tse.or.jp/tseHpFront/HPLCDS0301E.do;jsessionid=0a064f0b30d565e066c5accb4bb9ac108b7d07a47439.e34Sch8Sb3uNe34Rbh0QbxeSahb0.4

http://quote.tse.or.jp/tse/quote.cgi?F=listing%2FEDetail1&MKTN=T&QCODE=7974

I wish I knew more about OTC stock. I almost feel like I would prefer to invest in that especially considering its wild fluctuations in comparison to the Tokyo stock.

I never really understood the difference between the two.  I guess it is just the same stock on different markets?  I am pretty much a newb when it comes to most stock information.   From what I am getting from your information is that is better to hold the Nintendo stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange rather than NTDOY on OTC (for long term investment).   If you want to do short term then buy the NTDOY on OTC.



HappySqurriel on 19 June 2011
loves2splooge said:

I knew that the 3DS was a mistake. And I'm not surprised investor confidence is hurt after the Wii U unveiling. You can say, "Nintendo always sells at a profit!" all you want but if Nintendo stock goes to shit, certain Nintendo executives are gonna have a lot of explainin' to do to the shareholders. Business is not entirely about profit (and even if we look at profits Nintendo failed to meet their profit targets in the last fiscal year. That doesn't look good to shareholders) .


I think it is very early to call the 3DS a "mistake" ...

It is a little too expensive (probably should have launched at $200 or included a game at $250), its marketing has been a little weak (shown it off to a lot of people, most didn't know what a 3DS was before they saw it), and it hasn't had a particularly good initial batch of software.

Now, the question are:

  1. Is the price of the 3DS a "deal breaker" or are people waiting for some games to be released that justify the price?
  2. When Nintendo begins to reduce the price will DS owners begin to upgrade to the 3DS in greater numbers?
  3. Will the increased marketing from game releases that are beginning to happen increase knowledge of the 3DS?
  4. Will the bigger/better games that are going to be released this year convince people to buy into the system?
  5. Can Nintendo develop some "touch generations" type of games that attract "casual gamers" or non-gamers to buy the system?
  6. etc.

Now, these are all unknowns at this point in time but it is likely that we will start to get answers to some of them fairly soon



TheGameFather on 19 June 2011
Ail said:
TheGameFather said:
Aiddon said:
Everyone needs to themselves (and logical thinking) a favor and actually crack open a book about the stock market (I recommend Matt Taibi in particular). This is, historically, what a price drop in a week means on the stock market: JACK. FREAKIN'. CRAP. We have known for DECADES about how easily stock markets are manipulated and how badly they fluctuate


I think you've still got some reading to do.

 

Yes the markets fluctuate, no, not all activity in the market is standard fluctuation.

 

This decline in NTDOY is the result of several factors, only half of which are attributable to Nintendo themselves, the other half being comprised of global politics and finance.

1) We're all in a bad economy, the entire NYSE is down 900 points in the last month and a half.

2) Japan is in the midst of a nucular catastrophy

3) The world is on the brink of WWIII

 Now for Nintendos part:

1) They let the Wii die an early death (I still don't get why, but U may yet make things clear in the comming years or two)

2) They launched 3DS without a AAA first party ap (you think they would have learned that lesson from the GC...)

3) They are releasing yet another piece of ground breaking tech that most people won't understand until they play it.

 

 

Its not just standard market movement.  The market IS very volitile right now, and that does account for up to even %50 of the decline, but the rest is due to speculation on Nintendos questionable future no doubt.  That said, I expect it to start correcting back upwards soon and should be back around $27 by mid fall.

 

 Edit: that is of course barring the actuall comencement of WWIII, if they get that ball rolling all bets are off.

 

 

 

 

I think you're fogetting one thing.

Nintendo inability to make it's previsions year in and out has been weighting heavilly on the stock and because of that a lot of investors have decided to stay away from the stock... I don't see them doing better at hitting their forecast in the next 12 months so I don't think the situation will improve a lot there...

The intent was that the shortfalls be covered under points 1,2 and 3 of the "non Nintendo responsible" line items, and circumstantially as a result; points 1 and 2 of the "Nintendo responsible" line items.

 

 but I'm sure there are indeed plenty of fish in the market willing to make decisions on information as shallow as a year over year decline in profit for a video game manufacturer...

 



Ail on 19 June 2011
TheGameFather said:
Ail said:
TheGameFather said:
Aiddon said:
Everyone needs to themselves (and logical thinking) a favor and actually crack open a book about the stock market (I recommend Matt Taibi in particular). This is, historically, what a price drop in a week means on the stock market: JACK. FREAKIN'. CRAP. We have known for DECADES about how easily stock markets are manipulated and how badly they fluctuate


I think you've still got some reading to do.

 

Yes the markets fluctuate, no, not all activity in the market is standard fluctuation.

 

This decline in NTDOY is the result of several factors, only half of which are attributable to Nintendo themselves, the other half being comprised of global politics and finance.

1) We're all in a bad economy, the entire NYSE is down 900 points in the last month and a half.

2) Japan is in the midst of a nucular catastrophy

3) The world is on the brink of WWIII

 Now for Nintendos part:

1) They let the Wii die an early death (I still don't get why, but U may yet make things clear in the comming years or two)

2) They launched 3DS without a AAA first party ap (you think they would have learned that lesson from the GC...)

3) They are releasing yet another piece of ground breaking tech that most people won't understand until they play it.

 

 

Its not just standard market movement.  The market IS very volitile right now, and that does account for up to even %50 of the decline, but the rest is due to speculation on Nintendos questionable future no doubt.  That said, I expect it to start correcting back upwards soon and should be back around $27 by mid fall.

 

 Edit: that is of course barring the actuall comencement of WWIII, if they get that ball rolling all bets are off.

 

 

 

 

I think you're fogetting one thing.

Nintendo inability to make it's previsions year in and out has been weighting heavilly on the stock and because of that a lot of investors have decided to stay away from the stock... I don't see them doing better at hitting their forecast in the next 12 months so I don't think the situation will improve a lot there...

The intent was that the shortfalls be covered under points 1,2 and 3 of the "non Nintendo responsible" line items, and circumstantially as a result; points 1 and 2 of the "Nintendo responsible" line items.

 

 but I'm sure there are indeed plenty of fish in the market willing to make decisions on information as shallow as a year over year decline in profit for a video game manufacturer...

 

the issue isn't declining profit.

The issue is saying you're going to make X amount of revenue and Y amount of profit and missing those targets by a mile.

And we're speaking of 2010 and 2011 two years where the huge majority of the companies on the stock market made or beat their previsions handily ( which is why the stock market was soaring while Nintendo stock started to tank).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

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TheGameFather on 20 June 2011
 

If you'rejust  talking about projections then that is less relivant than actual profits, and still covered under the mentioned line items.

 

Do you know why the market soared?

 

Can you mention one game company who soared during that time?

 

 

 

 



Ail on 20 June 2011
TheGameFather said:
 

If you'rejust  talking about projections then that is less relivant than actual profits, and still covered under the mentioned line items.

 

Do you know why the market soared?

 

Can you mention one game company who soared during that time?

 

 

 

 


Take Two.( up over 100% since the start of 2009).



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Alby_da_Wolf on 20 June 2011
TheGameFather said:
 

If you'rejust  talking about projections then that is less relivant than actual profits, and still covered under the mentioned line items.

 

Do you know why the market soared?

 

Can you mention one game company who soared during that time?

 

 

 

 

Rovio Mobile, Zynga, Mojang and maybe Blizzard (if considered separately from Activision), just to name a few.



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A Bad Clown on 20 June 2011

I have Nintendo stocks I've lost 150 since I started in 2005 and I have Activision but I only made about 5 cents to far, so I don't think it's just Nintendo suffering. The economy is just bad for video game publishers so it shouldn't be surprising that Nintendo is losing money. I don't think its the 3DS's fault, but the slump of software sales in general.



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TheGameFather on 20 June 2011

$27 by October 15th.


Cheers.