HappySqurriel said:
1) Is an assumption that can't be supported with any facts. While we haven't seen any "real" games for the Wii U yet, Nintendo has used the tablet in many unexpected ways and it is possible that they could surprise us. On top of that, the success of Wii Fit and Kinect has demonstrated that add-ons can be used to increase interest in a platform for a unique gameplay experience, and I would expect Nintendo to have at least 1 major add-on in the life of the Wii U.
It is entirely possible that Nintendo can do amazing things with the tablet. I just believe that it is unlikely that they will.
2) Third party publishers seem fairly willing to support any platform that will play their games without needing massive modifications. Expect (pretty much) every game that is being released for both of the HD consoles to have a Wii U port.
HD consoles as in.........This generation (X360/PS3)? If so, yes, I agree. I am talking next generation. Microsoft and Sony will likely see the technical specifications of the WiiU and plan around them - that is, create a significant gap in technical quality to ensure that when they release, they will entice developers to build on their platforms first, then port to the WiiU. This strategy worked well for them in this generation, and I believe they will exploit it similarly next-gen.
3) Realistically, we don't really know what the capabilities of the Wii U or next generation systems from Sony/Microsoft are ... It is entirely possible that the Wii U is more powerful than you give it credit for, Sony and Microsoft's consoles will be less powerful than you anticipate, and the difference between processing power in the next generation isn't as meaningful as you predict.
Yes, that is possible. However, I don't believe it is likely. Nintendo has never been, nor is likely to be, a loss-leader. You take this, and add it with a piece of hardware like the tablet that will increase the production cost, and an additional year of cost reductions for the next Xbox and Playstation, and I believe there will be a significant chasm in quality - certainly not as much as the Wii to X360/PS3, but I believe that it is in Microsoft and Sony's best interest to have a big gap - and I believe that is what they'll do.
4) First off, this is entirely speculative on the capabilites of the system and beyond that I thought tie-in ratios for downloadable content were bad for all systems?
Tie in ratios are actually freakishly good. Games like Call of Duty add an extra $15 to each game sold in add-on content on average. Many of the major AAA IPs with multiple DLC releases have an attach rate of 20-30% between each piece of content. Therefore, if they release 5 pieces of content (Mass Effect 2), they sold, on average, 1.2 pieces of DLC per copy of Mass Effect 2 sold. Throw in the fact they made 40% more on each dollar sold via the digital channel, and it adds up. That is why the hard drive issue is critical.
5) Third party developers seem amazingly positive on the tablet because it is an enhancement they immediately know how to use to improve the games they're working on. See John Carmack's interview to see what I mean.
We will see how this translates into good ideas. Don't get me wrong - I want it to succeed, but I don't believe it will in comparison to the Wii. The Wii had a feature that nothing else had at the time - motion controls. Comparatively, touch screens have been around for quite some time. I don't see consumers flocking to the device merely based on the tablet, which puts the burden of hype squarely on developers - which may or may not happen.
6) This might happen, but it could also play out that the Wii U is successful for the first few years and after Sony and Microsoft release new consoles that don't have meaningful improvements over the Wii U and cost significantly more the sales of the Wii U accelerate. That was not a prediction, but I'm just pointing out that you're making an assumption that the next systems from Sony and Microsoft will be dramatically better than the Wii U; and we know far too little about any of these systems to support that argument.
I am merely presenting it as a logcal argument to Nintendo's strategy. If you were the execs at MS or Sony, how would you beat the WiiU? Would you release a device that is very similar to the WiiU in terms of performance, and try to win on some other front like online capabilities? Or would you ensure your device was, by contrast, significantly better/more powerful?
7) Who knows how it will sell? Many people were predicting the Wii would sell 10 Million systems for similar reasons and it will (likely) sell more than 10 times that many by the time it is done.
I wasn't one that predicted the Wii to sell 10 million :-p I am merely here defending Michael Pacter's statement that the WiiU's announcement is in a very vunerable spot - much like the Dreamcast was last generation.
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