If nintendo mess up (which can still happen) the PS3 will win but if not it will become second unless the 360 starts to sell in japan

it may still be possible to beat the xbox360.....but i don't think it's possible for the wii to be beaten, where it is now....

I think PS3 can easily beat 360, but no one will touch Wii this gen. It's just not going to happen.

Crumas2,

For fanboys, winning is seeing your favorite console outsell the competition in both consoles sold and in games made for it and sold.  

For gamers, winning is having all three manufacturers stay in business to produce more variety of consoles and thus more variety of games.

For casuals, winning is buying a console for not that much money, and having fun playing on it, no matter what the mode (individual, group or online).

For the companies, not losing is making a positive ROI, so as to be able to produce the next generation box.  Winning is making a very good ROI.  

Last generation saw Sony PS2 win for its fanboys, and this one looks more and more like N. Wii.

Gamers won in that all 3 made new boxes, and I believe will do so again in the next generation.

Casuals won last time with the PS2 (most fun for the amount of money spent) and the Wii has captured them this time.

Companies saw MS lose last generation.  Sony won with the PS2 making an operating income total of 264B yen (2001-2006) and is still winning more as the PS2 and its games continue to sell.  Nintendo won as well, with 753B yen from 3/2001-3/2006.  Now this includes handhelds, but seeing as N. doesn't sell its consoles at a loss, probably 1/3 I'd estimate is from the Gamecube and its game sales, or around 250B yen.

Nintendo has already won this generation (or close enough).  In that 6 months up to 9/07 they made more, 189bY, than in any year since 2000 (probably even before), except for 2006 (ending 3/07 with 226bY).  With this holiday and 2008 not looking much different,

MS and Sony might both win unless they really want to fight each other hard for second place,  (ie massive price drops).  But it could be a not lose generation for both of them with the massives initial losses being made back but not by that much.  Sony, of course, has Blu-Ray to help it with revenues, but that income won't acrue to the console division, so though the PS3 might establish BR as the default medium, it won't get any financial credit for it.  :(

I don't think it's impossible for PS3 to catch up with 360, by all means I think it's likely to happen. But Wii is out of the question, now THAT is impossible, and Nintendo hasn't even begun to load its guns.

360 may be safe from PS3 for the moment but in another 2 years I think they'll at least be neck and neck. That's never going to happen wit hthe Wii, and most arguments that claim that it could/will happen usually revolve around some absurd notion, like how the Wii will become 'outdated,' that HD televisions have more impact than actual game libraries, that "Casuals will stop buying it" when no one can even guage how many 'casuals' are buying the system in the first place let alone agree on what a 'casual gamer' or game is.

Actually a majority of the threads are about how likely it is the 360 will fail/Wii will be victorious. So be happy your PS3 has been unanimously viewed as coming in 2nd eventually! 

 Here we actual have one big point. We as armchair analyst insist on that Sony is going really bad, and Microsoft and Nintendo is doing great. Why? Well those companies doesn't need to improve that much to be better than last gen.

Looking at Sony we see another area, they can't win. Nothing will probarbly come close to the PS2 (mayby DS) in consol and software sold.Sony hasn't even pushed it with a 99 USD tag yet. So it is very easy to be hard against sony, they are bleeding market share to both Microsoft and Nintendo, something that I belive anyone should have seen (I didn't).

Before this race I looked at Wii and thought, well if nintendo can take 10 milions of brain age customer and get another 15 GC hardcore + another 5 millions somewhere else Nintendo has really succeded. Now I think anything below 40 millions would be an failure. 

i think the wii will pass the ps1. i'm not sure it will pass ps2 let alone reach the number it was at last year!

I actually dont understand how you can say ps3 will not overtake the xbox..I'll give you the states and that is being liberal,but there is no way that it won't overtake MS ww. What the playststion has is definately not innovation, but they have their name along with key titles hitting next year with prob another price break. And since I don't post much I would just like to say that I am strictly a nintendo consumer.

@renar

Thanks.  That's what something along the lines of what I thought, but it's a very good summary.

I guess I'm jaded by my 27 years working in the corporate world, but I tend to think a gamer "wins", i.e. - has his favorite console/console-company continue to make product and devs continue to make games for those consoles, only if the company can do so in a sustainable way.  In other words, it's all tied together, except for being a fanboy... I'm not sure how much of an impact that has.