Hear me out oni.

If you're a 3rd party:

and you make an exclusive on PS3, how many potential customers do you have? 50M right?

If you make an exclusive on X360, how many potential customer do you have? 54M right?

okay, now if you're making an HD multiplat, and you know that any given customer will buy it on one of two platforms, really how many potential customer do you have? It's hard to tell, but it's most probably not 104M.

Worst case scenario: all PS3 owners are 360 owners as well, with 4M being XBOX-only owners. You have 54M potential customers.

Best case scenario: no PS3 owner is a 360 owner. You have 104M potential customers.

How do we know that the best case scenario is not true? We really probably can't. But we use our common sense, which tells us that many a user owns both consoles, even here on VGChartz, even yourself. Maybe we're just more core here, but at least we get to know it happens in one internet community.

Take it or leave it, but it's my insight on the matter. I concede I may be wrong, but if you pointed a gun to my head, I would say there were around a total of 80M unique HD console conumers (Half of the PS3 owners also have a 360). Again, there are the theoretical yet highly unlikely best and worst case scenarios. Your pick. Don't expect me to agree on 104M though.

I'm not taking it way too far, I'm just sayin'. And of course we're looking at software sales when thinking about the more meaningful measure (active base). When you look at software sold, it's squarely divided between HD system. That's what I would add, not the hardware sold. That's how I got to my 60M figure. I took a total of 2M games sold per hit on average, and multiplied it by 10 for the number of different segments I've noticed the hits coming from (fighters, shooters, RPGs, ...). In other words not all gamers buy the same game.

We very much agree, I mean if you understood my past posts you would have picked up on that, though take that lightly I don't expect to read all posts with a magnifying glass :)

I like you and your little olsen sigs (my sister was a huge fan of them and is a twin herself), so I'll try to demonstrate the idea as simply as possible without confusing you.

You'd agree that someone who buys Infamous will not necessarily be the same as one who buys Gran Turismo, not the same as one who'd buy Madden 2011, and not necessarily the same as one who'd buy Skyrim when it releases, neither would he necessarily be one to buy the ICO+ remakes, or Mortal Kombat for that matter.

If you take the main gaming segments on the HD console, you come up with I'd guestimate about 10 main segments, within those gamers fall into one of them. Gamers of one segment will tend to buy games that cater to them, so for additional game sales within the segment you don't add the numbers, they're just parallel.

example: 2M of Uncharted 3 and 2M of Infamous <> 4M customers, but probably more like maybe 2.5M customers? (closer to 2M)

But the segments themselves by definition pertain to different crowds, hence you can add the numbers between them.

example: 2M of Uncharted 3 and 2M of Madden 2011 maybe equal to 3.5M customers (closer to 4M).

So, with 2M in each segment, and 10 segments, I'm thinking 20M active users. Sorry did I say 60M before? So 20M. Really though, it's just a number, and then again it's a guestimate, so taken with a grain of salt. Then, the 85M I had mentioned before was another guestimate, but that one was for hardware regarding the actual install base (the lesser metric like you mentioned).

I probably lost you completely by this point, but I'm trying to make sense of it myself as I type :D

Hear me out oni.

If you're a 3rd party:

and you make an exclusive on PS3, how many potential customers do you have? 50M right?

If you make an exclusive on X360, how many potential customer do you have? 54M right?

okay, now if you're making an HD multiplat, and you know that any given customer will buy it on one of two platforms, really how many potential customer do you have? It's hard to tell, but it's most probably not 104M.

Worst case scenario: all PS3 owners are 360 owners as well, with 4M being XBOX-only owners. You have 54M potential customers.

Best case scenario: no PS3 owner is a 360 owner. You have 104M potential customers.

How do we know that the best case scenario is not true? We really probably can't. But we use our common sense, which tells us that many a user owns both consoles, even here on VGChartz, even yourself. Maybe we're just more core here, but at least we get to know it happens in one internet community.

Take it or leave it, but it's my insight on the matter. I concede I may be wrong, but if you pointed a gun to my head, I would say there were around a total of 80M unique HD console conumers (Half of the PS3 owners also have a 360). Again, there are the theoretical yet highly unlikely best and worst case scenarios. Your pick. Don't expect me to agree on 104M though.

Because multiplats are gonna sell it, oh yeah.

And good luck to them running after a casual market that is getting more and mose used to free to play games or 2$ games...

Most gamers arent fanboys that hate on Ninty just to hate them, let that go. AND LOL! Really ?? What you think millions of people bought the PS1 despite Sony being an unknown in gaming, because of their 1st party?? PS2 is the best selling console of all time because of Sony's 1st party??? Ratchet & Clank is not that cool

Do you not think the touch screen controller will help this?

Third party exclusives. And by then, they will almost "exclusively" be done for. Sony's first party? Never said that. Try Ridge Racer, GTA, Final Fantasy, Tekken, and so on.

And no, most teen-young adult gamers have no affection for Nintendo, and most see it as kiddy thanks to the fine efforts by Sega, Sony, and Microsoft (more Xbox than MS, but Xbox IS MS :P ). That is the demographic they're trying to capture, and that is the demographic that will be well occupied by PS3 and 360 until they are both succeeded. Multiplats aren't gonna win them any new sales, especially by the time it releases against a cheaper PS3 and 360 with far more robust libraries and a fine hardcore name to them. The WiiU is not a name, but a shot in the foot as far as that demographic goes.

Third party exclusives. And by then, they will almost "exclusively" be done for. Sony's first party? Never said that. Try Ridge Racer, GTA, Final Fantasy, Tekken, and so on.

And no, most teen-young adult gamers have no affection for Nintendo, and most see it as kiddy thanks to the fine efforts by Sega, Sony, and Microsoft (more Xbox than MS, but Xbox IS MS :P ). That is the demographic they're trying to capture, and that is the demographic that will be well occupied by PS3 and 360 until they are both succeeded. Multiplats aren't gonna win them any new sales, especially by the time it releases against a cheaper PS3 and 360 with far more robust libraries and a fine hardcore name to them. The WiiU is not a name, but a shot in the foot as far as that demographic goes.