padib said:
I like you and your little olsen sigs (my sister was a huge fan of them and is a twin herself), so I'll try to demonstrate the idea as simply as possible without confusing you. You'd agree that someone who buys Infamous will not necessarily be the same as one who buys Gran Turismo, not the same as one who'd buy Madden 2011, and not necessarily the same as one who'd buy Skyrim when it releases, neither would he necessarily be one to buy the ICO+ remakes, or Mortal Kombat for that matter. If you take the main gaming segments on the HD console, you come up with I'd guestimate about 10 main segments, within those gamers fall into one of them. Gamers of one segment will tend to buy games that cater to them, so for additional game sales within the segment you don't add the numbers, they're just parallel. example: 2M of Uncharted 3 and 2M of Infamous <> 4M customers, but probably more like maybe 2.5M customers? (closer to 2M) But the segments themselves by definition pertain to different crowds, hence you can add the numbers between them. example: 2M of Uncharted 3 and 2M of Madden 2011 maybe equal to 3.5M customers (closer to 4M). So, with 2M in each segment, and 10 segments, I'm thinking 20M active users. Sorry did I say 60M before? So 20M. Really though, it's just a number, and then again it's a guestimate, so taken with a grain of salt. Then, the 85M I had mentioned before was another guestimate, but that one was for hardware regarding the actual install base (the lesser metric like you mentioned). I probably lost you completely by this point, but I'm trying to make sense of it myself as I type :D |
well this time i followed the logic but i'm not sure i agree with it ... to many assumptions. for instance, i bought GT, infamous, uncharted, and will buy ICO/SotC and thus apperently fall into at least 4 of your categories.
finally, marykate and ashley are awesome!
