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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ship v Sold Wii/PS3/360 - Dec 2013 and post adjustments.

cookingyourmama on 19 July 2012
kowenicki said:
drkohler said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:

Nope your numbers are wrong, it's 80 days worth of supply.


68.3 - 67.165 = 1.135 million in supply.

1.13m / 90k p/week (and falling) = 12.5 weeks = 87.89 days

no?

Also I'm being generous, the weekly figure is falling, so an average of 80 to 95k may be the norm in the coming weeks and months. Which makes it even worse.

And should MS make that $99 subscription offer world-wide, or is giving away freebies like last summer, your weekly numbers suddenly jump up 10-30%. Fact is, your own table shows the supply is completely in line with past years' june numbers, so there is no need to start a discussion about over/undertracking.


History is irrelevant... it is the here and now, the current demand and the current climate. 

Nope history is everything when it shows that in both 2006 and 2007 when the xbox360 was selling less per week then now there were also more days worth of supply of xbox360's. And on top of that in both 2008 and 2009 when the xbox360 was only selling slightly more on average per week the xbox360 had slightly more days worth of supply then now.



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cookingyourmama on 19 July 2012
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
Updated with 360 numbers.

88 days supply, just keeps going up. Those retailers love looking at piles of those shiny white and green boxes.

Nope your numbers are wrong, it's 80 days worth of supply.


68.3 - 67.165 = 1.135 million in supply.

1.13m / 90k p/week (and falling) = 12.5 weeks = 87.89 days

no?

Also I'm being generous, the weekly figure is falling, so an average of 80 to 95k may be the norm in the coming weeks and months. Which makes it even worse.

During the last Quarter (March 31st till June 30th) according to Vgchartz the 360 sold 1,287,223. For that 13 week period that is an average of 99,000 per week.

As of the 30th of June Vgchartz xbox360 LTD is 67,165,080 and Microsoft's shipped number is 68.3m, which is a difference of 1,134,920.

1,134,920 xbox360's in the retail chain with average weekly sales of 99,000 = 80.25 days worth of supply.

i see...  except thayt the supply chain now is for the coming weeks... lol

they dont order in early June based on April, they order in early June based on June and July expectations and how many they are currentl selling.  retailers do count how many they sell you know... on a DAILY basis. 

Except the problem with your method is that basing your whole formula on only one or two weeks worth of sales at the end of each quarter is completely flawed when:

1. Only using one or two weeks worth of data means you open yourself up to potential sales spikes during that time which make your numbers worthless when trying to work out a reasonable average.

2. Using your own argument against you, the sales at the end of June are not reflective of the sales during August so you can't say how many days worth of supply any company really has.



cookingyourmama on 19 July 2012
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
drkohler said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:

Nope your numbers are wrong, it's 80 days worth of supply.


68.3 - 67.165 = 1.135 million in supply.

1.13m / 90k p/week (and falling) = 12.5 weeks = 87.89 days

no?

Also I'm being generous, the weekly figure is falling, so an average of 80 to 95k may be the norm in the coming weeks and months. Which makes it even worse.

And should MS make that $99 subscription offer world-wide, or is giving away freebies like last summer, your weekly numbers suddenly jump up 10-30%. Fact is, your own table shows the supply is completely in line with past years' june numbers, so there is no need to start a discussion about over/undertracking.


History is irrelevant... it is the here and now, the current demand and the current climate. 

Nope history is everything when it shows that in both 2006 and 2007 when the xbox360 was selling less per week then now there were also more days worth of supply of xbox360's. And on top of that in both 2008 and 2009 when the xbox360 was only selling slightly more on average per week the xbox360 had slightly more days worth of supply then now.

I give up... just perhaps the numbers were wrong then too?  ever considered that?  Im still puzzled as to why retailers like to have more 360's boxes in the back room even when they sell less of them than other consoles?

The problem is Vgchartz numbers match up with all other sales trackers. If Vgchartz numbers are all wrong, then all other major sales trackers are also wrong for everything as well..... not likely.



cookingyourmama on 19 July 2012
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
Updated with 360 numbers.

88 days supply, just keeps going up. Those retailers love looking at piles of those shiny white and green boxes.

Nope your numbers are wrong, it's 80 days worth of supply.


68.3 - 67.165 = 1.135 million in supply.

1.13m / 90k p/week (and falling) = 12.5 weeks = 87.89 days

no?

Also I'm being generous, the weekly figure is falling, so an average of 80 to 95k may be the norm in the coming weeks and months. Which makes it even worse.

During the last Quarter (March 31st till June 30th) according to Vgchartz the 360 sold 1,287,223. For that 13 week period that is an average of 99,000 per week.

As of the 30th of June Vgchartz xbox360 LTD is 67,165,080 and Microsoft's shipped number is 68.3m, which is a difference of 1,134,920.

1,134,920 xbox360's in the retail chain with average weekly sales of 99,000 = 80.25 days worth of supply.

i see...  except thayt the supply chain now is for the coming weeks... lol

they dont order in early June based on April, they order in early June based on June and July expectations and how many they are currentl selling.  retailers do count how many they sell you know... on a DAILY basis. 

Except the problem with your method is that basing your whole formula on only one or two weeks worth of sales at the end of each quarter is completely flawed when:

1. Only using one or two weeks worth of data means you open yourself up to potential sales spikes during that time which make your numbers worthless when trying to work out a reasonable average.

2. Using your own argument against you, the sales at the end of June are not reflective of the sales during August so you can't say how many days worth of supply any company really has.


1.  Sales spike? for what? retailers know their market and they speak to the manufacturers (where is our Gamestop inside man when you need him)

2.  Like I said,  I was being generous.  It is actusally even worse that i stated.

1. During various weeks of the year things happen which cause sales spikes or sales drops, your method does not take this into account if one of those events i just mentioned happen to take place during the one or two weeks worth of data you take to come up with 'average weekly sales' .

2. Right so do you think that when July-Septembers numbers are in, the actual real average weekly xbox360 sales for those 13 weeks will only be 90,000? lol



cookingyourmama on 19 July 2012
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
drkohler said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:

Nope your numbers are wrong, it's 80 days worth of supply.


68.3 - 67.165 = 1.135 million in supply.

1.13m / 90k p/week (and falling) = 12.5 weeks = 87.89 days

no?

Also I'm being generous, the weekly figure is falling, so an average of 80 to 95k may be the norm in the coming weeks and months. Which makes it even worse.

And should MS make that $99 subscription offer world-wide, or is giving away freebies like last summer, your weekly numbers suddenly jump up 10-30%. Fact is, your own table shows the supply is completely in line with past years' june numbers, so there is no need to start a discussion about over/undertracking.


History is irrelevant... it is the here and now, the current demand and the current climate. 

Nope history is everything when it shows that in both 2006 and 2007 when the xbox360 was selling less per week then now there were also more days worth of supply of xbox360's. And on top of that in both 2008 and 2009 when the xbox360 was only selling slightly more on average per week the xbox360 had slightly more days worth of supply then now.

I give up... just perhaps the numbers were wrong then too?  ever considered that?  Im still puzzled as to why retailers like to have more 360's boxes in the back room even when they sell less of them than other consoles?

The problem is Vgchartz numbers match up with all other sales trackers. If Vgchartz numbers are all wrong, then all other major sales trackers are also wrong for everything as well..... not likely.

they do?

Its just that I hear lots of whining after every NPD.  Nobody really sees proper numbers for Europe and the rest of the world isnt tracked at all.

so....

At the end of each month NPD numbers get adjusted and Europe's numbers get adjusted when Nintendo release everybodys European sales, they are all correct. If you have any actual proof that the 360 is being under tracked in the 'rest of the world' then please post it.



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cookingyourmama on 19 July 2012
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
drkohler said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:

Nope your numbers are wrong, it's 80 days worth of supply.


68.3 - 67.165 = 1.135 million in supply.

1.13m / 90k p/week (and falling) = 12.5 weeks = 87.89 days

no?

Also I'm being generous, the weekly figure is falling, so an average of 80 to 95k may be the norm in the coming weeks and months. Which makes it even worse.

And should MS make that $99 subscription offer world-wide, or is giving away freebies like last summer, your weekly numbers suddenly jump up 10-30%. Fact is, your own table shows the supply is completely in line with past years' june numbers, so there is no need to start a discussion about over/undertracking.


History is irrelevant... it is the here and now, the current demand and the current climate. 

Nope history is everything when it shows that in both 2006 and 2007 when the xbox360 was selling less per week then now there were also more days worth of supply of xbox360's. And on top of that in both 2008 and 2009 when the xbox360 was only selling slightly more on average per week the xbox360 had slightly more days worth of supply then now.

I give up... just perhaps the numbers were wrong then too?  ever considered that?  Im still puzzled as to why retailers like to have more 360's boxes in the back room even when they sell less of them than other consoles?

The problem is Vgchartz numbers match up with all other sales trackers. If Vgchartz numbers are all wrong, then all other major sales trackers are also wrong for everything as well..... not likely.

and just out of curiosity, what do you make of those rather erratic supply numbers for the PS3 in the chart, incompetent fools at Sony logistics or what?

...and what about that 0 supply at the top of the chart huh?  doesnt anything look a tad off here to you?  now either Sony cant get a grip of supply, or something else is not right?

I've already replied to you in a previous thread why Sony's retail supply chain numbers are all over the place.



cookingyourmama on 19 July 2012
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
Updated with 360 numbers.

88 days supply, just keeps going up. Those retailers love looking at piles of those shiny white and green boxes.

Nope your numbers are wrong, it's 80 days worth of supply.


68.3 - 67.165 = 1.135 million in supply.

1.13m / 90k p/week (and falling) = 12.5 weeks = 87.89 days

no?

Also I'm being generous, the weekly figure is falling, so an average of 80 to 95k may be the norm in the coming weeks and months. Which makes it even worse.

During the last Quarter (March 31st till June 30th) according to Vgchartz the 360 sold 1,287,223. For that 13 week period that is an average of 99,000 per week.

As of the 30th of June Vgchartz xbox360 LTD is 67,165,080 and Microsoft's shipped number is 68.3m, which is a difference of 1,134,920.

1,134,920 xbox360's in the retail chain with average weekly sales of 99,000 = 80.25 days worth of supply.

i see...  except thayt the supply chain now is for the coming weeks... lol

they dont order in early June based on April, they order in early June based on June and July expectations and how many they are currentl selling.  retailers do count how many they sell you know... on a DAILY basis. 

Except the problem with your method is that basing your whole formula on only one or two weeks worth of sales at the end of each quarter is completely flawed when:

1. Only using one or two weeks worth of data means you open yourself up to potential sales spikes during that time which make your numbers worthless when trying to work out a reasonable average.

2. Using your own argument against you, the sales at the end of June are not reflective of the sales during August so you can't say how many days worth of supply any company really has.


1.  Sales spike? for what? retailers know their market and they speak to the manufacturers (where is our Gamestop inside man when you need him)

2.  Like I said,  I was being generous.  It is actusally even worse that i stated.

1. During various weeks of the year things happen which cause sales spikes or sales drops, your method does not take this into account if one of those events i just mentioned happen to take place during the one or two weeks worth of data you take to come up with 'average weekly sales' .

2. Right so do you think that when July-Septembers numbers are in, the actual real average weekly xbox360 sales for those 13 weeks will only be 90,000? lol

"the actual real"... what does that even mean? according to who?

I'm done here... I have made my point and I dont want to carry this on, it will just turn ugly. 

you might want to take a stab at that PS3 question I posed before you go though.

When Vgchartz has posted all the weekly sales numbers for the next 13 weeks (July-September) for the xbox360 and you add them up and divide by 13 to get the average weekly sales for that quarter, do you really think the average will only be 90,000? lol



neerdowell on 19 July 2012

Not sure if it's been mentioned already but for what it's worth, personally I think that Microsoft is shipping right where they probably want to be. If anything, I think retailers have probably known about the new models for the PS3 and likely don't want to be stuck clearing them out, so they have intentionally ordered less.

The 360 might be slightly undertracked but not as much as indicated by shipping discrepancies.



How do you breathe again?

Nintendogamer on 25 July 2012

580,000 Wii on shelfs sounds about right with 96.56M shipped v 95.98M sold.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

zumnupy10 on 25 July 2012

When Will Sony numbers be revealed ?