Hello all,

Given the sheer number of recent articles regarding the game it seems like Battlefield 3 is gearing up to be one of the largest releases of the year. EA has stated that they plan to invest signficiant resources promoting the game, and preorders are currently 700% higher than BC2 at the same point of time. BC2 went on to sell 7 million units. Although EA wants BF3 to outsell COD, I feel that with this entry they will not quite be able to achieve this goal (but it will be their best effort yet)

Personally, I believe with a large marketing push, the casual market can be grabbed. This plus the loyal fan base could position Battlefield 3 to have long-term sales of 11-13 million, depending on the reviews and whether the game lives up to the hype (unlike Medal of Honour). This game will not sell solely on name, so initial reviews will be crucial to obtain large legs.

Opening week I anticipate:

Low:

PC: 500,000

Xbox 360: 1,500,000

PS3: 900,000

TOTAL: 2,900,000

Medium:

PC: 600,000

Xbox 360: 2,000,000

PS3: 1,200,000

TOTAL: 3,800,000

High:

PC: 700,000

Xbox 360: 2,500,000

PS3: 1,500,000

TOTAL: 4,700,000

 After this, legs will be dependent upon the reviews and user feedback of the game. If it turns out to be great, I expect this to have massive legs during the holiday season & stay strong through 2012. If not, afte rthe holidays I believe the legs will falter.

What do you guys think?

Something like that.

And I agree with your analysis. BF3 is the next big thing and will steal casuals from COD. It's a lock to sell 10 million lifetime on consoles alone. Battlefield 3 will be HUGE.

I agree PC will be huge; just wonder how many legitamate sales that there will be

LTD totals

PS3: 5 million

xbox: 6.25 milliion

While it is possible that LTD it could reach very high numbers with good enough word of mouth, those first week estimates seem ridiculous to me. 

At the very best I think battlefield's first week will be 1.7mil for 360, and 1.1mil for the ps3. Not going to bother estimating for the PC since vgchartz doesn't track digitial sales.

More likely though 360 should open around 1.3mil and the ps3 should open around 800k.

Then again maybe their advertising will pay off.

I'd say that the X360 version will have a 2 Mil difference between it and the PS3 version.

PS3 lifetime: 5 Mil

X360: 7 Mil.

I'd say these are possible

First Week

Xbox 360 - 1,300,000 week 1 (500k increase over BFBC2)

PS3 - 800,000 week 1 (300k increase of BFBC2)

PC - Wildcard and unknowable but as much as 500,000

Total - 2,600,000

-----------------------

Lifetime

Xbox 360 - 4,500,000 - 6,000,000

PS3 - 3,500,000 - 4,500,000

PC - 1,500,000 - 2,300,000

Total - 9,500,000 - 12,800,000

LOL.  You guys think a team-based, strategical game is going to steal casuals from CoD?  There is nothing approachable or casual about Battlefield.  Bad Company 2 multiplayer was one of the most difficult games for the average casual gamer to pick up. Casual gamers want fast-paced action, bam bam bam, with little pause between.  BF3 might attract a lot of gamers from the huge marketing budget, but they are not going to retain or attract new casual gamers if they do not make the game a little more accescible.  One of the big reasons Halo and CoD became viral was because of their splitscreen options.  Friends would play it at their friends house and then want to buy it.  Battlefield and Bad Company games do not have this feature, nor are these games easily to pick up in an hour or two. 

I don't know what gametypes BF3 will have, but if it doesn't add more gametypes than what Bad Company 2 had then it won't suceed with the non-hardcore crowd.

CoD and Halo are the only FPS games that have been able to crack into the 10million plus stratosphere of FPS games (of this generation, so far as I know).  Battlefield 3 is going to need something more than a new engine, pretty graphics, a lot of corporate boasting, and a huge marketing budget to crack into the 10 million range.  What gameplay advanmcements have they made?  How do they plan on attracting the average casual gamer and mak ing this game fun for them?  How do they plan on making the learning curve a little more easy so that people don't quit before they really learn to be competent or have fun with the game?

People giving some really high predictions.

FW: 

X360: 1.3 - 1.7 million
PS3: 0.8 - 1.2 million

X360: 5.0 - 5.5 million
PS3: 3.5 - 4.0 million
PC: don't know

BF2 shipped 7 mill no? and they expect 10 mill shipped for BF3?

We have BF2 at about 5 mill on PS360, so either that's undertracked or it isn't as big on PC as you're making out slimebeast!!

Going by ours and EA's figures though I expect

360 - 4.4 mill
PS3 - 3.6 mill
PC - 2 mill