No Nintendo is not relying to heavily on third parties on 3DS. They aren't really relying on them at all, they are allowing third parties a chance to have some success and in turn cause third parties to support the 3DS more.
Also the 3DS a sinking ship lol, Nintendo almost met their 4-million unit projection, sales are falling just short of DS which while I'd say appears alittle disapointing is still pretty good.
Infact their is overwhelming evidence including talk directly from Reggie and Nintendo heads that Nintendo purposely under marketed and under sold the 3DS. Honestly Nintendo gave the origional DS a huge marketing campaign , the Wii was around 500-million dollars marketing campaign. The 3DS, so little campaign that you barely see commercials on TV or in magazines or online.
Nintendo explained that they didn't want demand to out pace supply, that is why they did not do a huge ad campaign. It'll be interesting once Nintendo decides to turn up the heat and launch a big ad campaign. Now honestly I think that Nintendo is playing with fire by not having a huge campaign but heck why waste 500-mill promoting a device if you can't keep the device in stock and actually sell it.
Go around to your school, workplace or a social setting and ask friends and maybe even strangers what they think of the 3DS and heck they probably won't even know it exists. Right now the 3DS is being supported and marketed to one demographic the early adopting hardcore gamer, once Nintendo starts targetting other markets they will likely find huge success.
Third parties will support 3DS it is selling better then PSP and that still gets third party support. I think Nintendo will probably launch a 500-mill ad campaign right as NGP hits the market, it will be a huge battle royal and Nintendo shouldn't have a problem taking out the trash.
Will 3DS outsell DS, probably not but when Nintendo turns up the heat hopefully sales will rise!