possible but I think very unlikely

Even if Cafe comes out say April 2012 at the earliest, the360 will only be able to close the gap minimally by that time because the Wii is still selling decently, not great, but enough not to be getting totally blown away

Second, the Wii is not going to be like the gamecube where once the successor comes outthe console pretty much dies. The Wii is very popular and will continue to sell even after Cafe has been released. It will not have the shelf life that PS2 has been enjoying, but it will survive for some time into Cafe's life.

However, I do think that 360 can significantly cut the lead by the time that their new console hits. If it's true that it comes out sometime in 2014 then I can see the gap between Wii and 360 in the US at about 3.5-4 Million.

I don't think it will, but I do think it'll come a lot closer.

The Wii will hit $99 at some point and still be viable to many people such as small children who are just receiving their first gaming system or older folks, etc.  The 360 will likely never appeal to the market in that way, even at $99 itself.

But 360 software bundles are an itty bitty fraction of Wii bundles. You can't ignore Wii's software numbers are bloated with free and other other dirt cheap software. It makes the Wii seem like a better software mover than it actually is.

Given the significant difference in userbase and bundled games. Its surprising to see Wii struggles to outsell either HD console.

You can predict but thats all it is a prediction you likely going to be wrong but i guess people like to be heard.

even if the wii keeps on selling the 360 is already outselling it and by a good margin. March NPD had the 360 outselling the wii 430K to 290K.  those margins are just going to get even worse after the wii2 releases.  i'm with the OP ... it's not just possible it is probable.

Once the Project Cafe console, whatever it is called, hits this is not relevant to really anything.  Unless one insists on videogame console sales as some sort of sport, it doesn't matter.  Anything about a big deal for sales relating to console is that it connects to whether or not a console will get support, and the company making it stays in business.  Anything else doesn't matter.   If I am wrong, what does anyone win if console X or Y ends up leading in sales?

1. this is a sales site filled with people interested in sales.  not a sport but it is a hobby.

2. a cookie ... but you have to understand it is a really delicious cookie.

I don't see it. Even if the Wii stopped selling right this second it'd take over a year of current sales for the 360 to overtake it. If the Wii remains within 30-50k of the 360 this year and the next, the most the gap can narrow after that is 4.5mil in the next 2 and a half years, and that's absolutely best-case scenrio if the Wii remains 50k behind the 360 every week for the next 2 years, which is only just half of that gap disappeared. Even if that ridiculously unlikely scenario DOES occur, the 360 will likely be dead by midway through 2013 and be selling around 30k in Americas a week, even if the Wii stopped selling at all, it'd require up to 2017 to beat its sales. Those odds are just too unlikely for me.

So no. It can close the gap, but not overtake the Wii.

This. I honestly do not see Xbox 360 or even PS3 to ever overtake the Wii. Truth of the matter is, Wii sales are actually not as bad as many people think. Worst case scenario for Wii is if it were to completely stop selling now and PS360 sell 17million each for each year for two years, they'll just match the Wii numbers -- a virtual tie for all

EDIT: OMG, I completely misunderstood the whole thing. Well..., regardless, I still agree with Conegamer.

Well the 360 has had holiday bundles with 2 games since 2007, and they were at least available for the three biggest sales months of the year.  I think 2010 was the only spring bundle though.  A lot less than the Wii (especially if you include things like Wii Play), but it still is a significant amount.

Outside of bundles like the RE5 one and MW2, etc.  The holiday bundles were essentially mandatory.