my 2 cents,

1/ since for each generation lenght and total user base may not be the same, you should not compare them directly in an absolut way

2/ what you could try :

do a similar analysis for all the console (PS2/xbox/Gc vs ps3/360/wii) by checking their market share % during the same time frame (6 year after launch ?). By using % of total user base, you will ride out generation lenght and total userbase.

This way you will be able to compare % PS2 did 6 year after launch (about) vs what the PS3 is doing right now (same for 360 and wii).

By now a lot depends on Wii 2. Provided it doesn't kill PS3 and 360 very quickly, I can see PS3 doing at least some 14M 12M 11M = 37M in the next three years, including this one. (And no, I haven't checked actual sales lately, only the order of all consoles.) That would bring PS3 to some... 82M (if PS3 was at 45M at the beginning of this year) by the end of 2013. I don't see why it couldn't reach 18M more during the rest of its lifetime, bringing it to over 100M units sold. So yeah, my bet is 100M-110M. Not bad for a console that launched at $599, was at the last place for most of the generation, and generally struggled during its first years.

That said, I haven't checked actual figures before posting this so I could be way off. Also, if Wii 2 has a serious impact on PS3 and 360, things will be a lot different. Naturally Sony discontinuing PS3 quickly after the release of PS4 would have a similar effect but I don't see that happening.

300 plus million... at the minimum.

wait, im not elgrancabeza. lol

so i say 100 plus million

If you look at the better selling games during the late PS2 era, a lot of them were casual and sports games. It's the people who don't care about graphics that are willing to buy an outdated console for less money. The PS3 doesn't have that audience. The PS2 was somewhat fortunate to get have Guitar Hero, Rock Band, Fifa and Madden to keep it rolling.

At this point, I don't see the PS3 gaining in the casual games, so they will probably never get those sales. The PS3 doesn't have a lock on the sports games like the PS2 did, so that won't be a driver of sales either.

I don't think it can surpass 110 Million, although I think it has a slight chance of hitting 100 Million.

Depends what they want to do this FY, really.

If they want to profit, they will go for about 14 Million shipped WW, which would be a small $50 cut. If they want to go for the win, then I say 16 Million WW with a $100 cut.

If they went the "perfect" route, and released the SuperSlim alongside a $100 cut, then I could maybe see 17, maybe 18 Million at a push for the Year. I know, I'm hugely optimistic... but who cares?!

Anyway, as for the PS1 comparison, This - http://www.playstationmuseum.com/Features/History/ - is a good website for PS1 shipment data. It gives us all the history along with shipment data for each region for each Quarter It's there if you want to use it and work it all out.

It took the PS1 just over 4 Years to hit 50 Million units anyway, with a staggered launch.

I'm fairly sure that ps3 lifetime sales will be > x360 > Wii.

So wii is last place? Interesting. 

Or did you mean (xbox360 or wii) 

Pretty good for starting at $600.

I totally agree, but I find it strange, that some people are jumping the gun, and saying it will be first place. 

Thanks! I'll update the OP.