So, David Cameron made a speech in which he said that, actually, massive uncontrolled immigration might not bring the huge benefits promised to all areas.

At which point, I found myself involved in a twitter argument (a twargument?) with someone called Ian Birrell. The name sort of rang a bell, but I just checked his twitter profile and it tells me he

Was: Deputy editor The Independent & David Cameron speechwriter. Is: Columnist, co-founder Africa Express and a bit more besides.

So you’d think he’d have a reasonable grasp of the numbers regarding immigration. First up he claims that….

Home office study found immigrants’ net contribution = 1% off income tax rate. This means they subsidise welfare state http://bit.ly/gzqYJohttp://bit.ly/dJcmHY

which points to .
This is a hugely flawed study from 2006, especially the section titled “ASSUMED ANNUAL LONG-TERM GROSS MIGRATION FLOWS” – compare the figures in that chart to the figures in 2010/11.http://www.official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm72/7237/7237.pdf

At best, section 2 says:

Though based on a previous set of migration assumptions, analysis by the Government Actuary’s Department suggests that, in the long term, immigration helps to reduce the burden of contributions to the National Insurance Fund.

That’s a helluva lot of assumptions and suggestions, which have been debunked 1000 times over, not least at http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/1.17

Incidentally, most migration benefit statistics are based on a VOLUNTARY years-old EXIT survey covering airports, not sea ports, and excluding asylum seekers.
More details here: http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/95

Incidentally, the 1% figure does NOT take into account loss of employment for UK residents – almost all newly created jobs went to non-UK migrant workers:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/christopher-hope/7939138/Record-four-out-of-five-jobs-going-to-foreigners-between-May-and-June.html

Labour market figures showed that 186,000 people started work – of which 145,000 were foreign and just 41,000 were British – in the three months to June 30.
The total number of foreigners in employment – 3.85million – is also at a record high, and amounts to one in seven of the workforce, according to the Office for National Statistics.

That’s 3.85 million “foreigners in employment”, while the latest figures from 13th April 2011 shows 9.30 million people “economically inactive” and those registered unemployed at 2.48 million.http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12

It also doesn’t take into account cash-in-hand work. Bizarrely, it’s often said almost with pride by the left that if all un-registered workers vanished overnight, the entire hospitality industry in London would collapse. Gosh, how very proud we must be that we’ve built a whole industry on and invisible underclass of worker.

What else does Ian say?

Also studies show immigrants are twice as likely to start a new business – so surely we need more, not less, to boost growth?http://bit.ly/hURNjG

And you know what? The price of a gallon of petrol is now only £2.32, just a third of what it was yesterday. Oh, but I’m quoting figures from the US. Just like Ian is doing.

In the past fifteen years immigrants have doubled their presence in the market for American entreprenership.

Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/opinion-zone/2011/03/immigrants-are-more-twice-likely-start-new-business#ixzz1JUn8SKLf

Hardly relevant, though, is it? So what if “immigrants are twice as likely to start a new business” in the USA?! It’s a vastly different place with a hugely different demographic and about 4x the population in an area 40x bigger, not in the EU, with a different currency…. need I go on?

Or crime figures:

Crime has fallen heavily in recent years despite biggest increase in immigration in recent history. Facts don’t support youhttp://bit.ly/e16P5C

Really? Well, as Ian used to edit a broadsheet, perhaps he would have been aware of the dataset published by The Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/jul/15/crime-statistics-police-force

Almost every aspect of crimes against the person is up – sure, if you lump in the fact that “theft of mail” is down by 17% and “Fraud by company director” is down by 89%, then sure, then that’s the part that’s really important, right?

Sexual activity involving a child under 16 is up 20% or sexual grooming is up 29%.
Hmmmm, wonder why that is…. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/8240202/Cover-up-claims-over-Asian-sex-gangs.html

In 17 court cases since 1997 where groups of men were prosecuted for grooming 11 to 16 year old girls on the street, 53 of the 56 people found guilty were Asian, 50 of them Muslim, while just three were white, The Times reported.

Anti-semitism is on the rise too: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12350913

From the BBC article: 47% of perpetrators were white, 52% were Asian/Arab/black/East European.

Homophobic attacks are on the rise: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-12526820

From the article:

Reprinted and glued to dozens of lampposts and railings in the area, a flyer states: “Arise and warn. Gay free zone. Verily Allah is severe in punishment.”
The latest figures from the Metropolitan Police show rising homophobic crime in the area.
There were six reported homophobic crimes in Tower Hamlets in January 2011, compared to two reported incidents in January 2010,
Across the capital, between April 2009 and March 2010, homophobic crime rose by 22.2% from the previous 12 months – from 1,093 to 1,336 incidents.

But then again, this is hardly new news: http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2011/01/28/three-appear-in-court-over-anti-gay-leaflets/

Three men appeared in court today on charges of distributing threatening written material to stir up hatred on the grounds of sexual orientation.
Ihjaz Alie, 41, Mehboob Hussain, 44, and Umer Javed, 37 were charged this week over leaflets which allegedly called for gays to be killed.
Another two men, Razwan Javed, 30, and Kabir Ahmed, 27, were charged in December.
All five will appear before Derby magistrates’ court on February 14th.
They are the first to be charged under new laws against stirring up hatred on the grounds of sexual orientation.
The men were accused of handing out leaflets called ‘The Death Penalty?’ outside a Derby mosque.
The material reportedly said that gay people should be executed and the men are also accused of pushing it through letterboxes.

Do we ask the attacked Jew or the raped 13 year old first? Let’s start with Johann Hari:
http://www.johannhari.com/2011/02/25/can-we-talk-about-muslim-homophobia-now

All of which brings me to my point, which is that you simply can’t cherry pick figures based on guesses and extract a purely economic argument, without taking into account the social divisions. We’re people too, not machines.

So there you go – any questions or comments? Incidentally, it’d be interesting to see what Cameron actually does, as opposed to the rhetoric. I wonder how he’s even got time inbetween denigrating the UK, lying about ethnic intakes of Oxford and dishing out the odd £650 million in overseas “aid”.

PS, regarding the falling crime figures above, I’m with this comment: http://www.guardian.co.uk/discussion/comment-permalink/6648715

This is a complete load of doctored codswallop.

Police are solving only one in every four crimes, meaning some 3.1million offenders were able to cheat justice last year.

Only 1.2million of the 4.3million cases handled by the police were cleared up.

For burglary, the detection rate fell below 13 per cent – the equivalent of one in every eight offences.

Almost all drug offences – 94 per cent – are detected, mainly because it is relatively straightforward to clear up a case of cannabis possession, the most common crime.

If drug offences are stripped out of the overall detection rate, the number of crimes solved falls to 24 per cent. Officers blame the figure on excessive bureaucracy and paperwork.

That’s to say nothing, as stated above, of crimes that simply go unreported.

One in three men born in 1953 has been convicted of at least one criminal offence, according to research published today. This figure accounts only for those who got caught, not for the one who got away.

Crime is NOT falling. The statistics have been doctored to suit the political arena.

Quite.

UPDATE: 15/04/2011 – bonus feature.

I saw it written that  ”the segment of the population most strongly opposed to mass immigration are British Asians”. You can only imagine the shrill outrage from the left! Total bollocks, apparently. Thought I’d look it up….

Let’s start with the report from that last bastion of far right nationalist racism, the Searchlight Educational Trust.

The describe themselves thus:

“Searchlight Educational Trust is a registered charity that works with communities to build responses to racism and hatred, dispel myths and develop greater understanding.”

A widely reported study was released by them in February this year.
http://www.fearandhope.org.uk/project-report/themes

More Asians are now opposed to immigration than white Britons, according to a new poll which reveals that opposition to new arrivals now transcends race.
Research commissioned by the Searchlight Educational Trust found that 39 per cent of Asians, 34 per cent of whites and 21 per cent of blacks believed immigration should be halted either permanently or at least until the UK’s economy was back on track.

All the below are directly from the report which can be viewed at the above link.

Agreeing with the statement:
Stop all immigration until the economy improves

Asian: 29% White: 15% Black: 17%

Table summary:
“The above table suggests that 39% of Asians and 34% of whites are in a hard anti-immigration camp. Fifty-eight per cent (58%) of Asians and 62% of Whites seem pragmatic towards immigration. “

Agreeing with the statement:
Immigrants have put my job at risk
Strongly agree: Asian: 16% White: 10%

So there you go.

What’s that noise? Is it the sound of the entire left going “la la la I can’t hear you!”? Come on, grow up, eh?