All down.

I guess this year the PS3 will have its best year with price cut... Wii the worst regardless of what happens... and 360 with price cut and a better lineup reveled in could have its best year too.

I don't think it's market saturation. Sales will slow down but not decline 'rapidly' like the title suggest. A combination of factor is also contributing to the yearly decline.

* Weaken economy in developed European nations
* Disruptions in the Middle East & Egypt
* Price point still relatively high despite console's age

So to summerise: yes we've peaked, but we have not reach saturation and the decline will not be rapid. There might even be a rebound if any or all of the above issues are resolved.

It can't be saturated because the PS3 isn't first yet . . . 

I think kowenicki is referring to how there are many still holding to the "80% of sales take place when a console reaches mass market pricing i.e. $199 or less".  So many are preaching that the PS3 hasn't seen its biggest sales yet because it hasn't reached that price point.

Yet what these numbers are showing is that, despite not reaching that price point, the total sales this gen are comparable or more than last gen and so saturation has reached a similar point to last gen without a mass market price point being reached for one of the consoles.

The poll results are showing that there are many on this site that still feel that the likely price cuts this year will cause a long and meaningful increase in sales despite the saturation.  Kow disagrees and that's what he means.

Is this right, kowenicki?

I believe this year may be on par with 2010 if all the consoles get a price cut...but after that its all downhill from there.

You are probably right about Wii if Wii 2 debuts again at 250-300$ Wii sales will collapse to PS2 levels but with $50 price cut this year and another price cut in 2012 X360 should keep it's yearly sales and PS3 will probably grow YOY.

I agree, unless price-cuts and bundles really work their magic. I don't see how at any rate they could be drastically up YoY, at most probably tied, but most likely double-figure drops all round after E3 without a price cut...

I think 2008 may have been the all time peak for the traditional industry worldwide actually given the fracturing that is coming since - cellphones, ipads, blackberries and so on. Industry is still growing, but by the time India and China are ready to support a large gaming population packing computer power into the proprietary boxes is going to look very silly.

On the main point, if you include DS / PSP with Wii / PS3 / X360 the peak was 2008. For just consoles, probably 2008-2009. The US & UK will slow less quickly as they have taken to Kinect strongly. Rest of the world has no late-cycle catalyst it looks like. 

Keep your eye on those annual console purchasing rates now - they're about 1.1 games annually for Wii and 1.6 / 1.4 for PS3 / X360 in Japan compared to about 2 for Wii / 3 for the HD systems in the West. Sony and Nintendo continue to see Japan as the barometer for the world market, so the timing of Japanese purchasing rates dropping below 1 game tends to be a good indicator of new console rumblings. DS had gotten to 1 game purchased annually in Japan last year, and thats when 3DS murmurs started in earnest.

Put a price cut on the Playstation 3 and I'll buy 2, Sony!

You just broke the hearts of all but the Nintendo faithful here with that impressive analysis, lol.  Great points all around.

Take a snapshot, folks.  The MEANINGFUL place of consoles this gen is a done deal.