I can see the PS3 breaking it's previous record of YTD in EMEAA ( Whatever it is ) with a $100 price cut this year.

$100?? i wonder if Sony can even do that... yes PS3 has reached its peak in EMEAA unfortunately =(

But to quantify how little or how much the "cheap" users contribute to total HW and SW sales we'll have to compare total HW and SW sales before and after reaching bargain price, and it's not enough, we'll have to check whether tie ratio at end of life will be higher or lower than  when premium price ended and bargain price started. And it won't be a precise estimate anyway, as we won't know how many games will have been bought by old users during the second phase of console life. But anyhow yes, it's very likely that earlier adopters will reach higher tie ratios on average, and 100% sure that at end of console life they'll have paid per head more for every premium service available since launch. This said, any company that haven't exclusivity as a selling point can't ignore the low end of its potential user base, but they can always cater for them keeping on selling the old gen after next gen launches and offering them a good and wide range of bargain editions.

I think there are some factors suggesting there's a bit to run yet and it's not all doom and gloom from here until Wii2:

Wii's blue ocean thingy, meaning a lot of Wii's were sold to people who've never owned a gaming console before.

Multi-console ownership is possibly (probably?) higher this gen than previously. Again it's down to Wii. Wii was bought "for the family", HD console bought for the "gamer(s)"

Also what's the situation with the number of markets in which the XB was sold compared to 360? Is the 360 on sale in more countries than XB?

I also think Pachter might have a point about people waiting for the right price point to "upgrade" from the Wii to a HD console. I know it's a terrible phrase, but I can't think of a different one at the moment. Anyway, with HD console price cuts there might be a few million people deciding to go from Wii to HD. However, if Wii2 is announced this year and launched in 2012 then this will cut many of the "upgraders" out of the PS360 market because they'll decide to wait for Wii2, as long as it's close enough in price to PS360 (300 Euro's).

All that being said I think the peak year for all of this gen's consoles is past. PS3 might come close, but it won't get over the line.

well price cuts and efforts to make gaming bigger in areas such as china would help a lot. their are currently 7 to 11 million dota players in china. the country can become a big gaming one. all we need are the big 3 to make an effort.

I think the price cuts on all 3 systems will keep sales close to 2010. Wii is going to drop to $150 I think and that's the magic number usually for huge sales. The XBox 360 will drop to $150 as well with their Arcade and $250 for the 250GB XBox 360 and $350 for the XBox 360/Kinect bundles. I expect the Kinect will drop to $100 or $125  by the end of the year. Sony will most likely follow suit with similar price cuts to the XBox 360. This will move systems and eventually more a lot more software at the end of the year.

Sounds pretty likely to me that they will all continue to fall (save for the 3DS, of course) from here on out.

My bad on the wording. I might IF it drops by $100.

@ioi Sales late in a gen can still mean a lot. Just look at PS2. It must cost Sony so little to produce that thing by now that even with almost no SW sales they must be raking in a very pretty penny from it.

So since now after adjustment we now know that PS3, PSP and X360 were actually above 2010 levels can we safely conclude that there's still plenty of space for this generation to grow  for both Sony and Microsoft.