I think 2008 may have been the all time peak for the traditional industry worldwide actually given the fracturing that is coming since - cellphones, ipads, blackberries and so on. Industry is still growing, but by the time India and China are ready to support a large gaming population packing computer power into the proprietary boxes is going to look very silly.
On the main point, if you include DS / PSP with Wii / PS3 / X360 the peak was 2008. For just consoles, probably 2008-2009. The US & UK will slow less quickly as they have taken to Kinect strongly. Rest of the world has no late-cycle catalyst it looks like.
Keep your eye on those annual console purchasing rates now - they're about 1.1 games annually for Wii and 1.6 / 1.4 for PS3 / X360 in Japan compared to about 2 for Wii / 3 for the HD systems in the West. Sony and Nintendo continue to see Japan as the barometer for the world market, so the timing of Japanese purchasing rates dropping below 1 game tends to be a good indicator of new console rumblings. DS had gotten to 1 game purchased annually in Japan last year, and thats when 3DS murmurs started in earnest.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
