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Forums - Sales Discussion - predictions for 2008

@endurance

Dunno when SSBB is coming out, but the wii wont be #1 in WW totals in march and on.



 

mM
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PS3 will reach ~ 20 million sold units minimum . Wii will start to fade a bit afther the hype of SSMB drops , but will still sell the most hardware from the 3 . The PS3 will start selling 3rd party games overall batter worldwide , thankfully for the EU and Japan , than the 360 and Wii . The 360 will see a huge drop , especially in second half of the year . DS will do mindblowing , nearly as much as it did this year . PSP wil reach 40-44 million next year , software sales will get a boost thankfully for big 3rd party exclusives , but other games will still have under mediocre performance . PS2 will still sell nearly 5 million next year , and we will still see extremly many poor or mediocre games for it ...



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leo-j said:
@endurance

Dunno when SSBB is coming out, but the wii wont be #1 in WW totals in march and on.

 You've got to be kidding me.



"'Casual games' are something the 'Game Industry' invented to explain away the Wii success instead of actually listening or looking at what Nintendo did. There is no 'casual strategy' from Nintendo. 'Accessible strategy', yes, but ‘casual gamers’ is just the 'Game Industry''s polite way of saying what they feel: 'retarded gamers'."

 -Sean Malstrom

 

 

Brawl actually comes out in February.

I expect the Wii to sell 40 million by the end of 08 with perhaps a $50 price cut.
Several Reasons:
1. Super Smash Bros Brawl
2. Mario Kart
3. Wii Fit (I expect a lot of endorsements from celebrities and other talk show hosts about this one)
4. Significant increase in 3rd party support.

360=21 million
PS3=18 million.



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For sales predicitons see my sig.

Also, I reckon that:

  1. GTA4 will sell better on the 360 in NA, but much better on the PS3 in Europe and Others, seeing as there will be roughly an equal number of PS3's to 360's in Other by the time the game is released.
  2. MGS4 will do well, but not be a massive hit.
  3. Killzone2 will not get released until the second half of 2008.
  4. FFXIII will not be released in 2008, it will be pencilled in for March 2009.
  5. DMC will sell better on the PS3 WW


Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

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End of 08 sales
wii-33 million
x-360- 24 million
ps3- 21 million



 

 

FireWater said:

3. Wii Fit (I expect a lot of endorsements from celebrities and other talk show hosts about this one)
If Wii can get Oprah, then Nintendo will own the United States (Think of the millions of moms who watch her show and would buy anything she endorses)

 



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Branko2166 said:
End of 08 sales
wii-33 million
x-360- 24 million
ps3- 21 million

Wow that wont happen at all, PS3 would have to double its sales and Wii basically sell less than this year, get real



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Wii - 42milj.
Xbox 360 - 23.5milj.
PS3 - 19.5milj.



endurance said:
i say year end wii sales 50 million,360 22 million ps3 16 million
the wii will win every WW weekly sales and SSBB will be the best selling game next year


I came up with something similar on the 360 and PS3, the ceiling for each probably around 23-25M and 18-20M, respectively. That's about as generous as I can be right now.

The Wii, however, I don't think will see the hardware manufacturing capacity to get to 50M. I think 40-45M will be the limit. The Wii will hit it, not because of SSBB, but rather because of Wii Fit. Wii Fit will be 2008's phenomenon, with the only inhibitor to ridiculous sales being that most people still can't buy 2007's tech phenomenon: the Wii.

The wildcard is how deep is Sony willing to go with another price cut in '08? The market for $399-$499 consoles is only slightly larger than it was for $599 ones, and I think they could see another post-holiday stall similar to this past year.

There is the question of how many 40Gb and 80Gb units did Sony build? Because they'll almost certainly adjust prices to clear the inventory, since its a given that they'll be making room for a SKU with the DualShock 3 bundled. The SpiderMan 3 bundle has a limited shelf life too, so the low end would be redone with another blockbuster film. Do other elements of the hardware change this year too? Bigger hard drives? Will they add a TV tuner and introduce PVR capability?