I think so too.  If a remake with very limited control (thanks to no analogue) can sell that much, I think this new Mario on 3DS can top 10m lifetime.

It's funny how a few people think that just because a game can't match the sales of NSMB it's automatically a flop.  By that rationale everything that's not Wii Sports/Fit, Mario Kart, Nintendogs or COD is a "flop".

I guess there's a lot of great "flops" out there...

Have you actually played the 3DS? It is quite clearly a phenomenal device, and it will certainly attract a massive following in the next few years.

3D Mario will reinvigorate the Mario series, just as Galaxy 1 did the same for 3D platformers in general.

Zelda motion control is enough to gain market interest, refining the technique in terms of menu navigation, etc, will be the real trick to pull off. I think Miyamoto has done it, judging from what we've seen thus far.

Honestly, I think Super Mario 3DS will probably be the best selling 3D Mario yet.  It's seemingly pushing for retro appeal with the blue sky / rolling green hills setting and return of raccoon suit.  About time they unseated Mario 64's record.

Skyward Sword I think will do less than some expect... 2nd Zeldas per system never do as well (AoL, MM, ST, etc) and it's peripheral dependent, which may inhibit some sales.  5-6m seems like a good safe guess though, provided it has good critical response and word of mouth.  

You've hit the nail on the head, only difference in situations is TP hit at the very start of the Wii's life (which didn't happen with any other Zelda games in their repective gens), there might be a bigger group to sell to now, it seems that typically if Nintendo markets to its crowd well the game will do well just because the group they brought into gaming trusts their namebrand.  When Donkey Kong has been drug through the mud for 2 gens that usually kills a base, but they release a mainline game, marketed it well, and it's one of the top five DK games already.  So I'm hoping for the best.