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Honestly, I think Super Mario 3DS will probably be the best selling 3D Mario yet.  It's seemingly pushing for retro appeal with the blue sky / rolling green hills setting and return of raccoon suit.  About time they unseated Mario 64's record.

Skyward Sword I think will do less than some expect... 2nd Zeldas per system never do as well (AoL, MM, ST, etc) and it's peripheral dependent, which may inhibit some sales.  5-6m seems like a good safe guess though, provided it has good critical response and word of mouth.