| Aiddon said: snrkt, THIS is considered an informed argument? |
Of course not. This is an outrageous trolling thread disguised as a 'prediction' confusing my personal dislike with sales predictions. At 63 replies I'd say it's a success.
Khuutra said:
Tell me something: how are they away from what the market demonstrably wants with Zelda? How has the market demonstrated they do not want 3D Mario? Keep in mind that 2D Mario being bigger is a very different matter. |
With Mario, I don't think that complex 3D games actually work on a small screen. Not in any genre. That is, I believe there is a small core of gamers willing to buy them and able to have fun with them, but the wider market will reject them. I remeber playing SM64 for the first time and it was near impossible to control. Add to that the camera issues that I think are inevitable and I don't think it's cut out for the handheld.
The top-selling DS and PSP games that make use of exploring a detailed 3D world are Super Mario 64 DS, Spirit Tracks, Phantom Hourglass, GTA, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest IX and Crisis Core. Except for SM64DS they all have <5m sales; in Mario's case there was a drought of other good software on the DS and I'm not sure it's repeatable.
There are a LOT of other games for the DS that have sold more than this. But the flagship games of 3D Mario and 3D Zelda ought to be in their place, as they are recieving the most attention and funding from Nintendo developers.
Now, addressing your actual point, I think there IS a market for 3D Mario. On the home console. It'll never sell as well as 2D Mario, but they are seperate series and on its own merits 3D Mario is worth continuing.
--
With Zelda, I'd like to ask: what do people like in Zelda games? A lot of people on this board would say puzzles, sure. A lot of people say story but don't really mean it, I think they mean world-building and exploration rather than cutscenes and dialogue.
I think two things sell Zelda, and a lot of other games: fast paced action, and a sense of development as you go through the game. I feel Zelda has been going away from that ideal for a long time, and it's only what's left of these elements that is selling it. But people aren't vocal that that's the case.
Here's my test. How long is it before Link gets a sword and the freedom to use it? In Z1 it was immediately. In Ocarina it was a fair while. In WW it wasn't until Dragon Roost Island like 2 hours in! I was so frustrated at not being able to do what's advertised on the box. I feel many gamers would get bored well before that point. TP wasn't much better - you only got to roam around with the sword after the visit to the Twilight realm for the first time and being a wolf.
If Nintendo gives you a sword and a world to cut it up with out of the box I withdraw all my reservations.
Considering we have seen only 4 screenshots of Super Mario 3DS it is beyond epic stupidity to start making equally epic stupid predictions of the game being a flop. I would continue this post and point out why Super Mario 3DS will sell well but such is the colossal amount of failure that I see no need. DWI.
Zelda, yeah that might but I don't care.
| Soleron said: With Mario, I don't think that complex 3D games actually work on a small screen. Not in any genre. That is, I believe there is a small core of gamers willing to buy them and able to have fun with them, but the wider market will reject them. I remeber playing SM64 for the first time and it was near impossible to control. Add to that the camera issues that I think are inevitable and I don't think it's cut out for the handheld. The top-selling DS and PSP games that make use of exploring a detailed 3D world are Super Mario 64 DS, Spirit Tracks, Phantom Hourglass, GTA, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest IX and Crisis Core. Except for SM64DS they all have <5m sales; in Mario's case there was a drought of other good software on the DS and I'm not sure it's repeatable. There are a LOT of other games for the DS that have sold more than this. But the flagship games of 3D Mario and 3D Zelda ought to be in their place, as they are recieving the most attention and funding from Nintendo developers. Now, addressing your actual point, I think there IS a market for 3D Mario. On the home console. It'll never sell as well as 2D Mario, but they are seperate series and on its own merits 3D Mario is worth continuing. -- With Zelda, I'd like to ask: what do people like in Zelda games? A lot of people on this board would say puzzles, sure. A lot of people say story but don't really mean it, I think they mean world-building and exploration rather than cutscenes and dialogue. I think two things sell Zelda, and a lot of other games: fast paced action, and a sense of development as you go through the game. I feel Zelda has been going away from that ideal for a long time, and it's only what's left of these elements that is selling it. But people aren't vocal that that's the case. Here's my test. How long is it before Link gets a sword and the freedom to use it? In Z1 it was immediately. In Ocarina it was a fair while. In WW it wasn't until Dragon Roost Island like 2 hours in! I was so frustrated at not being able to do what's advertised on the box. I feel many gamers would get bored well before that point. TP wasn't much better - you only got to roam around with the sword after the visit to the Twilight realm for the first time and being a wolf. If Nintendo gives you a sword and a world to cut it up with out of the box I withdraw all my reservations. |
Thank you for the honest post. It goes without saying, but I will say it anyway: attempts to define what makes a game series appeal to a wider audience are, at best, shots in the dark.
For Mario: I would only suggest you look at the sales trends for Mario 64 DS, which (for a while) I thought would outsell the first Galaxy and which will definitely outsell Galaxy 2. It had a number of months where it was the only "good" game on the system, but look at its sales pattern. Even after the DS's library became great, the game went on to sell millions more units. Millions. It took years, but the game has been selling at a moderate and steady rate since its release. This is a big deal, since the game is (in many ways) terrible in comparison to every other 3D Mario.
For Zelda: Trying to pin down what makes Zelda popular is pointless, which was my point; Twilight Princess has some of the most egregious pacing of any game in the series for the first ten or fifteen hours, but it will be the best-selling game in the franchise by the end of the year.
Applying one's own desires and assuming them to be the desires of others is a logical fallacy.
That's all.
| Soleron said: With Mario, I don't think that complex 3D games actually work on a small screen. Not in any genre. That is, I believe there is a small core of gamers willing to buy them and able to have fun with them, but the wider market will reject them. I remeber playing SM64 for the first time and it was near impossible to control. Add to that the camera issues that I think are inevitable and I don't think it's cut out for the handheld. The top-selling DS and PSP games that make use of exploring a detailed 3D world are Super Mario 64 DS, Spirit Tracks, Phantom Hourglass, GTA, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest IX and Crisis Core. Except for SM64DS they all have <5m sales; in Mario's case there was a drought of other good software on the DS and I'm not sure it's repeatable. There are a LOT of other games for the DS that have sold more than this. But the flagship games of 3D Mario and 3D Zelda ought to be in their place, as they are recieving the most attention and funding from Nintendo developers. Now, addressing your actual point, I think there IS a market for 3D Mario. On the home console. It'll never sell as well as 2D Mario, but they are seperate series and on its own merits 3D Mario is worth continuing. -- With Zelda, I'd like to ask: what do people like in Zelda games? A lot of people on this board would say puzzles, sure. A lot of people say story but don't really mean it, I think they mean world-building and exploration rather than cutscenes and dialogue. I think two things sell Zelda, and a lot of other games: fast paced action, and a sense of development as you go through the game. I feel Zelda has been going away from that ideal for a long time, and it's only what's left of these elements that is selling it. But people aren't vocal that that's the case. Here's my test. How long is it before Link gets a sword and the freedom to use it? In Z1 it was immediately. In Ocarina it was a fair while. In WW it wasn't until Dragon Roost Island like 2 hours in! I was so frustrated at not being able to do what's advertised on the box. I feel many gamers would get bored well before that point. TP wasn't much better - you only got to roam around with the sword after the visit to the Twilight realm for the first time and being a wolf. If Nintendo gives you a sword and a world to cut it up with out of the box I withdraw all my reservations. |
But i would argue that the motion plus content in the game would immediately fix those two points, so long as its handled right. Again, we see visible evidence of think-on-your-feet combat, and the dependence on your own skills to use items could itself deliver a sense of progression, so long as items are built for precision use
Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.
RolStoppable said:
Super Mario 3DS is Nintendo's next step in making 3D Mario more accessible, hence why they say "now it's even easier to hit blocks in a 3D space". Nintendo wants 3D Mario to be more successful than it currently is and they think the underlying problem is a lack of accessibility. They introduced the planetary worlds in Super Mario Galaxy to improve the camera, they removed the hub in SMG2 and added more 2D sections and now they use 3D for better depth perception. With Super Mario 3DS Nintendo isn't aiming for matching the sales of the first Super Mario Galaxy, but exceeding them. Will that happen? I don't think so, it's probably going to fizzle out around the same mark as Super Mario Galaxy. Likewise, Skyward Sword is a game that is an attempt to fix the problems of the Zelda series or rather an attempt to give the series new impulses. It's doubtful that Nintendo is aiming for anything less than 5m in sales, I am pretty sure they hope to exceed Twilight Princess's Wii sales as Skyward Sword is actually a true Wii Zelda game. The inclusion of Motion Plus also points to Nintendo wanting to expand Zelda's fanbase and get some of those Wii Sports Resort people on board. Zelda isn't one of those series where Nintendo is satisfied with just offering fan service. Heck, not even Metroid is and that's of much lesser importance to them. |
Wow good points lol i am inclined to agree.
Khuutra said:
Now this, ah, here is a bet I would not willingly take. |
You know... I think it will just because how much people love Zelda and the install base is there, but a bet I wouldn't take is outselling Twilight Princess, just 220k units from outselling the king of the series OoT at 7.38m, if Skyward Sword sells nearly that much I'd be VERY impressed.
As for 3DS Mario it will sell very well, Mario 64 on the DS almost sold 9m which is about 3m behind the original, an original 3D Mario on a portable that differeniates itself from Galaxy by changing up the 3D formula would do very well, probably 10m but no where near another 2D Mario.
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Khuutra said:
Applying one's own desires and assuming them to be the desires of others is a logical fallacy. That's all. |
I understand. Added something to the OP to that effect.
*is one more person expressing disagreement with the OP*
This is all just some biased thoughts at this point. There are a lot of factors affecting the larger market that we can't determine yet.
I don't know what big N's expectations are, but I don't think they are so high that these games will struggle to meet them. IMO, anyways, SS won't have disappointed if it sells in the mid fives. I doubt it will be as heavy a hitter as the hyped OoT or launch title TP were. It could hit a high six with some of the new market.
I'd really like for the franchise to grow again, the quality certainly deserves it. Maybe one of these games will break an 8 in my future.
I think Mario 3DS will be reaching 10 million eventually.
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