PS3 still have at least 6 years of life but i don't think Wii gonna last another 3 years, it will die right away when new Wii launch and by that time PS3 will be selling much cheaper, thats why i think PS3 still stand a chance beating Wii total sells in japan...

People keep saying this, but really? I find it hard to believe.

And why will the Wii die straight away anway?

Alright people, this is getting silly now. I think the recent victories of Hd consoles over Wii are making some delirious. There is NO chance PS3 passes Wii or even gets near it in Japan..

Actually GBA pretty much did drop like a rock once DS came out, at least in Japan. For all intents and purposes the system was basically dead a bit more than a year later. DS looks to be following a slightly steeper trend then GBA actually.

The way things are going, I think we'll see PS3 finish around 9m, Wii around 13m.  Japan just doesn't want home consoles anymore.

That seems extremely pessimistic for both consoles. Like I mentioned above 13 million is the rock-bottom minimum I can see for the Wii. That basically assumes sales drop off a cliff this year and DQX doesn't see a 2011 release and it sells sub-1 million this year. Than assuming DQX is a 2012 release it has minimal impact on HW and the Wii falls off predictably. And even under that scenario it could still crawl to 13.5-14 million if Nintendo keep it around long enough. And in regards to PS3, looking at the current YOY trends it will probably end the year around 8 million. You think it will only do another million lifetime after that? 10 million pretty much looks like a mathematical certainty at this point, with 11-12 being the most likely outcome.

Wii beats the PS3 LTD in Japan.

The huuuuge difference is that PS3 has already all the RPG fans/hardcore gamers while the wii still hasn't been able to attract a lot of them. But a DQ game is something that these gamers won't miss for sure. That's the reason why DQ should be an amazing system seller for the Wii while XIII-2 and versus won't be for th PS3 and if Nintendo manages to keep these gamers after the DQ release they even could eventually increase significantly their third party support in Japan.

The PS3 has very little room to improve significantly its sales in Japan as Move has bombed. They have the hardcore gamers, with little chances to see big increases among them as all the major big HCG Japanese franchises have already been released on the system, but they will never have the casuals. On the other hand I think Nintendo still has a chance with DQ to eventually gets much more HCG on board. This is why a change in trend seems very unlikely imo and given the gap in sales between the two consoles seeing PS3 even catching up is also probably impossible.

Well unless PS3 lasts something like 10 years or more and Wii only 6 for exemple but this won't be a fair comparison of course because Wii2 would have sold many additionnal units during this time.

I see my figures as more realistic.  Wii and PS3 both sold around 1.5 million in 2010 in Japan, both are going to sell less this year, and it's probably just a few years until both are done putting in significant years of sales at all (Wii especially, it likely has 2 years max).  Japan's also moved on from home consoles for the most part, and having 3DS and NGP on the market this year is just going to further cannibalize what's left.  I see this as especially dangerous for PS3, NGP really makes it an entirely unnecessary platform from a Japanese perspective.

On the other hand saying something like 12m PS3s sold lifetime is likely, essentially doubling it's current userbase... well, that's pretty optimistic to say the least.  In fact, I'd say it's fantasy.

Only another 1.5 Million for the Wii?

Compared to 2.5 for the PS3?

You m ust expect the next Ninty console pretty soon