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jarrod said:

The way things are going, I think we'll see PS3 finish around 9m, Wii around 13m.  Japan just doesn't want home consoles anymore.


That seems extremely pessimistic for both consoles. Like I mentioned above 13 million is the rock-bottom minimum I can see for the Wii. That basically assumes sales drop off a cliff this year and DQX doesn't see a 2011 release and it sells sub-1 million this year. Than assuming DQX is a 2012 release it has minimal impact on HW and the Wii falls off predictably. And even under that scenario it could still crawl to 13.5-14 million if Nintendo keep it around long enough. And in regards to PS3, looking at the current YOY trends it will probably end the year around 8 million. You think it will only do another million lifetime after that? 10 million pretty much looks like a mathematical certainty at this point, with 11-12 being the most likely outcome.



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