postofficebuddy said:
jarrod said:
The way things are going, I think we'll see PS3 finish around 9m, Wii around 13m. Japan just doesn't want home consoles anymore.
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That seems extremely pessimistic for both consoles. Like I mentioned above 13 million is the rock-bottom minimum I can see for the Wii. That basically assumes sales drop off a cliff this year and DQX doesn't see a 2011 release and it sells sub-1 million this year. Than assuming DQX is a 2012 release it has minimal impact on HW and the Wii falls off predictably. And even under that scenario it could still crawl to 13.5-14 million if Nintendo keep it around long enough. And in regards to PS3, looking at the current YOY trends it will probably end the year around 8 million. You think it will only do another million lifetime after that? 10 million pretty much looks like a mathematical certainty at this point, with 11-12 being the most likely outcome.
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I see my figures as more realistic. Wii and PS3 both sold around 1.5 million in 2010 in Japan, both are going to sell less this year, and it's probably just a few years until both are done putting in significant years of sales at all (Wii especially, it likely has 2 years max). Japan's also moved on from home consoles for the most part, and having 3DS and NGP on the market this year is just going to further cannibalize what's left. I see this as especially dangerous for PS3, NGP really makes it an entirely unnecessary platform from a Japanese perspective.
On the other hand saying something like 12m PS3s sold lifetime is likely, essentially doubling it's current userbase... well, that's pretty optimistic to say the least. In fact, I'd say it's fantasy.
