As it stands the Wii is 10,141,376 ahead

Last week 360 outsold Wii by 60,991 so at this rate it would take it 166 weeks (or just over 3 years) to catch it up.

I don't think the Wii is gonna get back above the 360 in the americas again and I also think it'll outsell the Wii in the holidays (yes I really do).

I also expect Nintendo to announce the Wiis successor very soon, whereas Microsoft and Sony will want this gen to last as long as possible so I dont think its out of the question for 360 to have at least another 2 strong years on the market.

So what do you think? Can it do it or will the Wii hold on?

UPDATE:

As of July 3th the Wii lead is now down to 9,003,113

With the news of WiiU, a pretty ineffective Wii price drop and the 360 looking to become America's legacy system I think it's now even more likely that the 360 will one day become the top selling system of this gen in America!

Yes, No Later than December 2013. Anyone wanna bet?

This makes me remember of the thread saying that in 10 years Xbox 360 would surpass the PS3 in Japan...

On topic, there are too many factor to calculate and have any reasonable answer for this, but for me, no, it wont.

I'm gonna say MAYBE.  The main factor being how much longer the 360 will be on the market than the Wii.  I fully expect a new Nintendo console next holiday while I think 360 will be supported for probably an extra 1-2 years on the market.  So it might but there's so many different factors its kinda hard to tell.

In 3 years there will be no wii or xbox 360

A better poll would be if 360 can outsell PS2 in the US... I think it might actually...

No. Last week, 360 was boosted by surpressed demand from before when it was in short supply. That's not gonna last a month, much less 3 years. On top of that, Wii's gonna have some tricks up its sleeve every so often and there's no way 360's beating it in the holidays. Oh, and Wii and 360 simply won't last long enough.

I'd be impressed if 360 can bring the gap down to 5m and get it to stay.

Its not impossible in the Americas since Mexico and Canada are less solidly for Wii than the USA, but its probably highly unlikely still.

X360 is going to top 30m in the USA this year, in six years on the market, plus late 2005.

Wii is going to top 40m in the USA this year, in five years on the market, plus late 2006.

You have to figure X360 and Wii sales are going to be rather similar throughout the rest of the generation though. In 2010, X360 topped Wii six months, but since November and December split, it wasn't particularly decisive either way.

Both systems have about 20m units left in the USA to sell - possibly alot more or less if price cuts are particularly (in)effective.

My issue with X360 catching Wii is given the saturation of the USA market, its hard to imagine X360 outselling Wii by that much while both still have relevant sales.

I'm also not convinced Microsoft is going to be supporting X360 for a huge number of additional years either - if you look at the quarterly data, Activision, EA, THQ, - all the publishers who didn't support Kinect - saw their revenue decline on X360 in Oct-Dec 2010 from Oct-Dec 2009 even with the base 11m larger in North America and Europe. Kinect probably can't support the diversity of software to prolong X360 beyond an additional year or two unless core games work on it soon. The publishers who cant make money on sports, dancing and fitness will see their fortunes begin shrinking soon for X360, and thus the HD market overall.

lol knaw man

You guys are all assuming that wii will continue or stay down while 360 will stay up or go up. -_-