Games matter, I totally agree (although with some motion control ones, peripheral, game and gameplay become indissolubly tied). But if games matter, huge libraries like Wii's and DS' ones offer countless new possible experiences to their gamers without having to buy another console. Average tie ratio for all current gen consoles is less than 10, most gamers don't need another console to have a possible choice of thousands new games (as every game they didn't play is new for them), of which some hundreds are good ones. Hardcore gamers (in the widest meaning of it) will look for new games on new platforms too, but a large part of existing user bases will stay with the current gen still for a long time. And then we must take into account the part of Wii users that use their Wii as a gym tool. Once they got WM Plus and BB and the games bundled with them, they don't need many more games to complete their electronic living room gym. BB and WM plus tie ratios are very small, like very small are their specific libraries, but anyway, Wii plus WM Plus plus BB offer a huge library overall for such users. And if they want some party games and some "deeper" ones to use Wii for other purpose than exercise, the library is even huger. Eventually, more and more "casuals" will upgrade, but not early, and for many of them it could happen not next gen, but the gen after.

We'll see. If your theory holds then I expect home console sales would be smaller next gen; if this isn't the case, I will assume I was right.

You have to consider two things as well.

1. The Wii is marketed as an entertainment appliance and it was crafted as such. So long as the appliance still does a good job a lot of users will be loath to replace it. The adoption rate amongst those who didn't have the appliance at first will generally be higher even amongst that same population than when it comes time to replace it.

2. Game sales are a continious variable between different groups at different times. Saying the Wii sells no games is false in an absolute sense but compared to some user groups on the PS3 and 360 it is true if speaking relatively. How many games each group will continue to buy as their library fills out is another important factor, it has been suggested that Wii users go on a buying spree as soon as they get their console but once their library fills out the purchasing rate and the dollars spent drops. NPD also supports this idea.

If what I say is true, it doesn't automatically imply that next gen can't sell more, but to sell more it must expand the market, being just an upgrade to previous gen wouldn't be enough.

In favour of next gen, also amongst casual/gym/whateverelse gamers, there is a big factor that I forgot, though: hands-free camera based motion control will reach its full potential only next gen, when computing power will be enough to detect and track more than 1-2 gamers, and to track a wider zone too.

1. True, huge success of the previous gen can just mean a delay in new gen adoption. But if the users find the previous gen good enough for a time long enough, they can even skip a gen and upgrade the gen after.

2. I agree, I didn't write that  Wii has a low tie ratio, but that its optional peripherals WM Plus and BB have a low one (late inclusion as standard of WM Plus functionality with Wii will help only when the user base owning either WM Plus or the new WiiMote Plus will be large enough). About "Wii gym gamers", that a complete gym and "optional secondary use games" solution on Wii is easy to make doesn't necessarily mean that Wii sells no games, I meant another thing, that Wii games range is wide enough to allow gamers to gather such personal collections without needing a new console. This means that when the time to upgrade comes, new consoles will enjoy too high tie ratios amongst those that had them with the previous gen. But again, the gen that will replace most Wiis could be not the next one, but the one after it. If it's true that DS and Wii made become gamers people that never considered it before, we have absolutely nothing to predict how this part of Nintendo gamers will behave about next gen. Although, like I wrote answering to Khuutra, I previously forgot that there can be some features in next gen consoles, like being able to track more players at once in hands-free motion control (now limited to 1-2), and, maybe, tracking a wider area, that could attract many "gym-gamers" and "casual/party-gamers".

Rather than calling them gym users I like to think of them as lifestyle gamers. They play games as fits into their lifestyles, party titles when they have friends over, single player, multiplayer and various application type games such as Wii Fit. Games are just another form of entertainment rather than the primary form of entertainment. That means once they develop a library which satisfies their needs their desire for new titles diminishes. This is the reason IMO why some sequels to popular titles have done poorly. I wouldn't say a majority won't upgrade, I think a majority will upgrade given the crossover between the Wii and other current generation machines. However a cadre of them, a significant minority may be quite sluggish if they feel their 'appliance' is still adequate. These are the most loyal and untouchable  new Wii  but not Nintendo core users, but I suspect they may also be the most difficult for Nintendo to get to upgrade. The other users, especially the ones with multiple consoles are more fluid and easily taken by anyone, not just including other console makers.

Maybe for Nintendo, honor and innovation are more important than bribery. 

Plus, their chosen path has led to their best console sales ever.

That being said, too radical a change again could cause people to run and seek cover.

Mike from Morgantown

Heh why even bring up "Nintendo faithful" since some of the posters that replied to you sorta own all the consoles, it's not the faithful, it's the people that actually like playing games saying this lol saying it in that way is just trying to cut the credibility of those replying to you and it's a piss poor job at that.

As for games just being worse derivitives of their N64 and GC counterparts, I'd actually like some real examples here lol cause for the most part I can list a number of titles that are better on the Wii or hell have Wii ports that play better, Metroid Prime being one right off the top of my head.  The Gamecube days were painful, worst versions of Mario, Smash (some might kill me for that), and Mario Kart came out that gen, not to mention most of the new IPs in the GC era were much much worse than the new IPs of the Wii era... Like Nintendo trying to throw its hat into the yearly sports games was painful to watch...

N64 on the other hand had a few other things working against it, being image, developing limitations from cart size to how hard it was to program for, and 3D games were in their infancy so many games were plagued with issues usually camera wise.

I don't know how you could deny the power of the Wii software, how people clamored for Wii Sports and having people over to play, you tube was on fire with videos, the local channels were lit up with coverage cause thats what people were interested in, talk shows had their hosts going crazy having fun with the device (showing off Wii Sports) and all this was perpetuated by the software, first hit was Wii Sports, then you had SMG and a few others in 2007, with the crazy hits of a bigger badder better Smash, bigger badder better Mario Kart, and the new trend Wii Fit hitting in early 2008 pushing hardware and software to sell out levels till 2009 which then picked up once more with New Super Mario Brothers Wii at the end of the year which pushed the console again in 2010 when it was bundled.  Simply put the biggest years/periods of growth for the system was backed by the software and it's hard to disprove that, even if you want to argue quality.