Alby_da_Wolf said:
Games matter, I totally agree (although with some motion control ones, peripheral, game and gameplay become indissolubly tied). But if games matter, huge libraries like Wii's and DS' ones offer countless new possible experiences to their gamers without having to buy another console. Average tie ratio for all current gen consoles is less than 10, most gamers don't need another console to have a possible choice of thousands new games (as every game they didn't play is new for them), of which some hundreds are good ones. Hardcore gamers (in the widest meaning of it) will look for new games on new platforms too, but a large part of existing user bases will stay with the current gen still for a long time. And then we must take into account the part of Wii users that use their Wii as a gym tool. Once they got WM Plus and BB and the games bundled with them, they don't need many more games to complete their electronic living room gym. BB and WM plus tie ratios are very small, like very small are their specific libraries, but anyway, Wii plus WM Plus plus BB offer a huge library overall for such users. And if they want some party games and some "deeper" ones to use Wii for other purpose than exercise, the library is even huger. Eventually, more and more "casuals" will upgrade, but not early, and for many of them it could happen not next gen, but the gen after. |
We'll see. If your theory holds then I expect home console sales would be smaller next gen; if this isn't the case, I will assume I was right.
