Pachter doesn't know priorities!

[Squilliam]

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Squilliam said:

You have to consider two things as well.

1. The Wii is marketed as an entertainment appliance and it was crafted as such. So long as the appliance still does a good job a lot of users will be loath to replace it. The adoption rate amongst those who didn't have the appliance at first will generally be higher even amongst that same population than when it comes time to replace it.

2. Game sales are a continious variable between different groups at different times. Saying the Wii sells no games is false in an absolute sense but compared to some user groups on the PS3 and 360 it is true if speaking relatively. How many games each group will continue to buy as their library fills out is another important factor, it has been suggested that Wii users go on a buying spree as soon as they get their console but once their library fills out the purchasing rate and the dollars spent drops. NPD also supports this idea.

2. I agree, I didn't write that  Wii has a low tie ratio, but that its optional peripherals WM Plus and BB have a low one (late inclusion as standard of WM Plus functionality with Wii will help only when the user base owning either WM Plus or the new WiiMote Plus will be large enough). About "Wii gym gamers", that a complete gym and "optional secondary use games" solution on Wii is easy to make doesn't necessarily mean that Wii sells no games, I meant another thing, that Wii games range is wide enough to allow gamers to gather such personal collections without needing a new console. This means that when the time to upgrade comes, new consoles will enjoy too high tie ratios amongst those that had them with the previous gen. But again, the gen that will replace most Wiis could be not the next one, but the one after it. If it's true that DS and Wii made become gamers people that never considered it before, we have absolutely nothing to predict how this part of Nintendo gamers will behave about next gen. Although, like I wrote answering to Khuutra, I previously forgot that there can be some features in next gen consoles, like being able to track more players at once in hands-free motion control (now limited to 1-2), and, maybe, tracking a wider area, that could attract many "gym-gamers" and "casual/party-gamers".

Rather than calling them gym users I like to think of them as lifestyle gamers. They play games as fits into their lifestyles, party titles when they have friends over, single player, multiplayer and various application type games such as Wii Fit. Games are just another form of entertainment rather than the primary form of entertainment. That means once they develop a library which satisfies their needs their desire for new titles diminishes. This is the reason IMO why some sequels to popular titles have done poorly. I wouldn't say a majority won't upgrade, I think a majority will upgrade given the crossover between the Wii and other current generation machines. However a cadre of them, a significant minority may be quite sluggish if they feel their 'appliance' is still adequate. These are the most loyal and untouchable  new Wii  but not Nintendo core users, but I suspect they may also be the most difficult for Nintendo to get to upgrade. The other users, especially the ones with multiple consoles are more fluid and easily taken by anyone, not just including other console makers.