Yeah, Seece pretty much took the words right out of my fingers.  

The only difference I could see is if Kinect drives the 360 to near Wii-like (2008-10) numbers WW once they drop the console price for 2011-2012.  That would mean average annual sales of 21 million for a couple of years with a tail off that would be much higher as well.  

Could that happen?  Yes.  Likely?  Um ... no.  It would take some really, REALLY special and unique Kinect experiences with broad mainstream appeal to drive that type of increase.  I'll need to see more of what's coming before I would even consider that kind of sales boost realistically possible.

On the success of the Kinect, and the current sales numbers.   It's easy to see the 360  break over 80 million by end of 2012. But hitting 100 million by then would require increased sales in 2012.

Depends if you believe this generation is about to go belly up and the next gen come out. I am of the persusation and have been from the start that this generation is more capable of regenerating itself than previous generations. I do have to exclude the Wii as that to my mind is the only console most likely to follow the more traditional cycle although it will hit 100 million it just will do it quicker.

I highly doubt it. But it's not out of the question, it can happen, just highly unlikely, I think ~75M is almost guaranteed, which is an achievement for a console that had launch problems(RROD) and the predecessor that only sold in a region of 25 million.

Nope. Neither will the ps3 though. I honestly think it will outsell the ps3 by around 6-7 million, although if it doesn't, I will be pleasantly surprised. I also think the psp2 will beat the 3ds, so I guess my predictions do not hold much merit...

Impossible.

It will stop at 75 million, which already is better than anyone expected.

The only way that's gonna happen is if MS keeps 360 on the market for atleast 5 years.

It is possible because of two main reasons.

1. The Xbox 360 will be relevant for longer. It looks like it'll not have a replacement on the market for at least a couple of years and it is unlikely that the next generation games will make the 360 look completely obsolete visually unlike what happened to the Wii. Beyond this the Xbox 360 has media features outside of games which will make it relevant to the market at the $100-150 price point for longer as a media extender box. Since it isn't performance but budget which limits consoles these days I don't believe that the median games in 2013 whether they are PC or console releases will make the current generation look terrible, unlike what this generation did for older PC and PS2 games.

2. The games market has grown so it is quite possible that in 2-3 years time we'll still be talking about how well it is selling as keeping the older machines on the market gives the console makers free reign to release machines which are $300 or even more expensive because they can consider the low end demand being met by current generation consoles.

Good arguments and personally I've actually switched lately - I used to be longing for a new gen to arrive as quickly as possible but now I want his one to last as long as possible and to become the most epic and famous gen as possible (it already has the best games IMO).

Maybe Elder Scrolls V launching on current gen consoles has something to do with my change of heart.

No, I don't think it can, both the 360 and PS3 will fall at least 20 million short, possibly 25.