Do you believe XBOX 360 stands a chance to hit 100 million consoles sold??

[Darth Tigris]

Seece said:

It's just too unlikely IMO.

For it to happen it would need next gen to start no earlier than xmas 2013 (likely anyway). Even so ...

(shipped)

2010 - 52 mill (roughly)
2011 - (15) - 67 mill
2012 - (12) - 79 mill
2013 - (9) - 88 mill
2014 - (5) - 93 mill
2015 - (2) - 95 mill

That is pretty much best case scenario, unless a Kinect AND 360 price cut really spur sales beyond belief and a $99 360 has a big legacy in the states.

It has an outside chance but I think 85 mill is a better target.

Yeah, Seece pretty much took the words right out of my fingers.  

The only difference I could see is if Kinect drives the 360 to near Wii-like (2008-10) numbers WW once they drop the console price for 2011-2012.  That would mean average annual sales of 21 million for a couple of years with a tail off that would be much higher as well.  

Could that happen?  Yes.  Likely?  Um ... no.  It would take some really, REALLY special and unique Kinect experiences with broad mainstream appeal to drive that type of increase.  I'll need to see more of what's coming before I would even consider that kind of sales boost realistically possible.