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Forums - Sales Discussion - 2007 is now settled - will 2008 be any different?

HappySqurriel on 17 December 2007
Stats87 said:
I think the key for Sony will be a game like LBP. We all know that GT5, MGS4 and FFXIII will come out and sell like hotcakes. But if LBP can come in and draw a whole new crowd of buyers while keeping the attention of the Sony faithful, it could be massive seller. It's visual style makes it attractive for all ages, while its apparent depth and gameplay should keep the hardcore crowd happy. I am very intrigued as to how this game will do.

I am also interested in how KZ2 will do, whether it is all bark or if actually does have the bite to go with it.

Nintendo will roll through 2008, with Mario Kart and SSB:Brawl leading the way. I think in 2009 we could see Wii sales take a bit of a dive, but that is merely speculation.

The 360 is interesting. It still has some top notch potential games coming out, but most of its well known flagship games are out. There is still GoW2 though. I see the PS3 outselling the 360 Worldwide in 2008. I think they will get big advantage in Europe and even more massive lead in Japan. I think they'll definitely narrow the weekly gap in USA, especially when GT5 comes out. The release of the first GT game for the past two generations of gaming were the point where the PSX/PS2 hit a massive sales boom. I expect the same with GT5 and the PS3.

For the most part the "whole new crowd of buyers" that people want games like Little Big Planet to draw in do not buy a system for $400 or even $300, and the only reason they would ever consider buying a Wii at $200 or $250 is because it comes with a game they are highly interested in.



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azzer100 on 17 December 2007
mrstickball said:
It's been an interesting year. We've seen so many momentum shifts between the X360>PS3 and back, to no end.

We've also seen the Wii dominate both the X360 and PS3 by combined numbers x 1.5. But the Wii's marketshare leading of the whole year has dwindled a bit with Christmas here, and the Wii is in short supply.



My opinion of 2008 has been set for quite some time, and I really haven't needed to change my feelings about it:

Nintendo DS: Continued strong sales worldwide, expecially in Europe. Increasing sales in the US where it's been the weakest. Decreased sales YOY vs. last year in Japan due to market penetration nearing maximum.

2008 Sales: 25.0m Units

Playstation Portable: Increasing strength in Japan since the PSP Slim release will continue in 2008. 2008 will be the PSP's best year thus far, but will still languish in software sales. Europe and USA will sell similarly, but sales will grow in Japan.

2008 Sales: 9m Units

Playstation 3: Sales will dip severely due to the current $400 pricetag selling to the maximum amount of consumers by mid year (ala X360 in 2007). Few games will entice consumers to buy, but will become stronger once critical titles launch. Sony continues taking massive profit hits due to hardware still being unprofitable for the year. However, sales in all 3 territories will outstrip 2007 overall.

2008 sales: 8m units.

Nintendo Wii: Had a breakout year this year, and will continue breakneck sales. However, with a true lack of AAA titles catering to Western core users, and an emerging PS3 in Japan, will not see the massive sales increases of 2007. Sales will be up in Europe, but down in the US and Japan. Sales begin to reach peak during Christmas, but will wain afterwards.

2008 sales: 18m units

Xbox 360: Sales will begin strong, but begin to reduce until GTAIV hits. With another $50 pricedrop with GTAIV's launch, sales will begin to strengthen greatly in the west. Japan will see moderate gains vs. 2007, but will be very minimal in the worldwide picture. Sales will be slightly higher overall vs. 2007.

2008 sales: 9.5m units.

Wait..what!?!



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Stats87 on 17 December 2007
mrstickball said:
It's been an interesting year. We've seen so many momentum shifts between the X360>PS3 and back, to no end.

We've also seen the Wii dominate both the X360 and PS3 by combined numbers x 1.5. But the Wii's marketshare leading of the whole year has dwindled a bit with Christmas here, and the Wii is in short supply.



My opinion of 2008 has been set for quite some time, and I really haven't needed to change my feelings about it:

Nintendo DS: Continued strong sales worldwide, expecially in Europe. Increasing sales in the US where it's been the weakest. Decreased sales YOY vs. last year in Japan due to market penetration nearing maximum.

2008 Sales: 25.0m Units

Playstation Portable: Increasing strength in Japan since the PSP Slim release will continue in 2008. 2008 will be the PSP's best year thus far, but will still languish in software sales. Europe and USA will sell similarly, but sales will grow in Japan.

2008 Sales: 9m Units

Playstation 3: Sales will dip severely due to the current $400 pricetag selling to the maximum amount of consumers by mid year (ala X360 in 2007). Few games will entice consumers to buy, but will become stronger once critical titles launch. Sony continues taking massive profit hits due to hardware still being unprofitable for the year. However, sales in all 3 territories will outstrip 2007 overall.

2008 sales: 8m units.

Nintendo Wii: Had a breakout year this year, and will continue breakneck sales. However, with a true lack of AAA titles catering to Western core users, and an emerging PS3 in Japan, will not see the massive sales increases of 2007. Sales will be up in Europe, but down in the US and Japan. Sales begin to reach peak during Christmas, but will wain afterwards.

2008 sales: 18m units

Xbox 360: Sales will begin strong, but begin to reduce until GTAIV hits. With another $50 pricedrop with GTAIV's launch, sales will begin to strengthen greatly in the west. Japan will see moderate gains vs. 2007, but will be very minimal in the worldwide picture. Sales will be slightly higher overall vs. 2007.

2008 sales: 9.5m units.

 I think your predictions are pretty spot on, but I think the PS3 will sell more then 8 Million. But these are just predicitons, all in good fun!



shams on 17 December 2007
leo-j said:
I can tell you hate the ps3 :P

No, I just strongly dislike Sony (and ever have since the Liksang fiasco). This is coming from someone who loved the PS2 (bought it on day#1 for $1000 here in Aust...).

I hope I have written nothing but fact. Opinionated fact yes - but fact all the same. 

 



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LeeAdama on 17 December 2007

Fun!

Wii (America):

I think Wii Fit will be more popular than candy if it hits the Oprah /Today Show/ Ellen circuit. Seriously, if Oprah decides she likes it, every woman in America will have to have it. One cannot undervalue the power of Oprah telling people to buy shit. If this occurs, the Wii stays sold out through the entirety of '08.

If this does not occur, Wii Fit will be a moderate success in America. Wii will keep on truckin' with SSMB and MKW doing their part to continue pushing sales and will probably still be scarce through the summer. There will be a few months of Wii retail availability through late summer to mid-November. Both SSMB and MKW will sell into the 3-4 millions by year end.

One pitfall, however, is the complete and utter lack of knowledge about third party and even Nintendo software support in the second half of the year. It's starting to get a bit eerie.

In conclusion, Wii could merely duplicate this year's success, or Wii Fit and Oprah could turn it into the iPod, Rubix's Cube, and Hula Hoops all rolled into one. An unknown quantity is software support in Q3 and Q4. The lack thereof could seriously derail the system.

360 (America): GTA4 should cause everyone who hasn't yet decided to pick one up to do so. It will be the biggest game of the year across the two systems. If they do cut the Arcade to $250 (and other SKUs appropriately), they could maintain the overall American market lead over the Wii, especially if Wii supply problems persist. Since Wii has no reason in the world to reduce their price in '08, it is an opportunity for 360 to attempt to try to undercut the PS3 (and the Wii, for that matter.)

PS3 (America): The price cuts have showed that a strong fanbase still exists who are willing to buy immediately if the price is right. Blu-Ray still exists as a small added incentive, but will not convince anyone at all to actually buy. Still, it's there, and if they keep on giving away Blu-Ray movies with PS3 purchases, it may sway some folks.

The elephant in the room is MGS4. If it manages to out-Assassin's Creed Assassin's Creed, combined with the strength of the brand name, it could move more systems than people night think. PS3 has the potential to best 360 on exclusives in '08. Conversely, FFXIII could be announced as a 360 multiplatform, KH3 could be announced as a Wii exclusive, etc. etc. etc. We just don't know.

If PS3 can hold on to a few more AAA exclusives, it could turn the corner. based on the price cut across all regions alone, there are certainly fans willing to make the purchase if the price and software is right. Of course, GTAIV will help the PS3 as well.

My thought is that PS3 will gain ground on the other two systems, but not anywhere near enough to pass one or the other in America in '08.



So say we all, yo.

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ssj12 on 17 December 2007

I think Sony will do a $50 - $100 price drop Fall 2008. By then the 65nm RSX will be installed in the system and maybe even the 45nm CELL. Plus there might be another price drop for the Blue Laser diodes which would save a few bucks.



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leo-j on 17 December 2007

DMC4 will do something for the ps3 (in japan, nothing for the xbox)

GT5 should do wonders.

My predction for sales next year for each console

PS3: 10M(6M 07)

Wii: 14M(16M 07)

X360: 8M(8M o7)

I expect ps3 to do amazing compared to 2007, and have SOME weeks with WW sales that it OUTSELLS the wii. Pretty much expect the ps3 to take most of the year agains the X360.
Why do I think the wii sales will drop? Its all in momentum. Sure it has 3 great games coming out next year, Mario kart, Super smash, and wii fit. But I expect sales to decline slightly, because of the hardcore not buying into it.

My predictions on price.

wii will drop to $229.99 (new colors)
X360 will drop to $179.99( no HDD)
PS3 will drop to $349.99(40gb)



 

mM
Stats87 on 17 December 2007
HappySqurriel said:
Stats87 said:
I think the key for Sony will be a game like LBP. We all know that GT5, MGS4 and FFXIII will come out and sell like hotcakes. But if LBP can come in and draw a whole new crowd of buyers while keeping the attention of the Sony faithful, it could be massive seller. It's visual style makes it attractive for all ages, while its apparent depth and gameplay should keep the hardcore crowd happy. I am very intrigued as to how this game will do.

I am also interested in how KZ2 will do, whether it is all bark or if actually does have the bite to go with it.

Nintendo will roll through 2008, with Mario Kart and SSB:Brawl leading the way. I think in 2009 we could see Wii sales take a bit of a dive, but that is merely speculation.

The 360 is interesting. It still has some top notch potential games coming out, but most of its well known flagship games are out. There is still GoW2 though. I see the PS3 outselling the 360 Worldwide in 2008. I think they will get big advantage in Europe and even more massive lead in Japan. I think they'll definitely narrow the weekly gap in USA, especially when GT5 comes out. The release of the first GT game for the past two generations of gaming were the point where the PSX/PS2 hit a massive sales boom. I expect the same with GT5 and the PS3.

For the most part the "whole new crowd of buyers" that people want games like Little Big Planet to draw in do not buy a system for $400 or even $300, and the only reason they would ever consider buying a Wii at $200 or $250 is because it comes with a game they are highly interested in.


 I realize that, that is why I am wondering if it can, not saying that it will. I think it will have an effect on that crowd, but it will be modest. Only time will tell. It also depends on how/how well Sony markets the game.

But who knows, moms and women everywhere may find those little guys too cute to pass up... 



jhlennon1 on 17 December 2007
shams said:
leo-j said:
I can tell you hate the ps3 :P

No, I just strongly dislike Sony (and ever have since the Liksang fiasco). This is coming from someone who loved the PS2 (bought it on day#1 for $1000 here in Aust...).

I hope I have written nothing but fact. Opinionated fact yes - but fact all the same. 

 

What are you views about the 360 in regards to their Japan, Europe and lack of killer ap exclusives next year?



Stats87 on 17 December 2007

I just read your update Shams.

Personally I think Too Human will be average. At first I was very excited for it, but with all the delays and issues my optimism has waned. When I watched the most recent gameplay videos I thought "i've seen this before and it was done much better"