Fun!
Wii (America):
I think Wii Fit will be more popular than candy if it hits the Oprah /Today Show/ Ellen circuit. Seriously, if Oprah decides she likes it, every woman in America will have to have it. One cannot undervalue the power of Oprah telling people to buy shit. If this occurs, the Wii stays sold out through the entirety of '08.
If this does not occur, Wii Fit will be a moderate success in America. Wii will keep on truckin' with SSMB and MKW doing their part to continue pushing sales and will probably still be scarce through the summer. There will be a few months of Wii retail availability through late summer to mid-November. Both SSMB and MKW will sell into the 3-4 millions by year end.
One pitfall, however, is the complete and utter lack of knowledge about third party and even Nintendo software support in the second half of the year. It's starting to get a bit eerie.
In conclusion, Wii could merely duplicate this year's success, or Wii Fit and Oprah could turn it into the iPod, Rubix's Cube, and Hula Hoops all rolled into one. An unknown quantity is software support in Q3 and Q4. The lack thereof could seriously derail the system.
360 (America): GTA4 should cause everyone who hasn't yet decided to pick one up to do so. It will be the biggest game of the year across the two systems. If they do cut the Arcade to $250 (and other SKUs appropriately), they could maintain the overall American market lead over the Wii, especially if Wii supply problems persist. Since Wii has no reason in the world to reduce their price in '08, it is an opportunity for 360 to attempt to try to undercut the PS3 (and the Wii, for that matter.)
PS3 (America): The price cuts have showed that a strong fanbase still exists who are willing to buy immediately if the price is right. Blu-Ray still exists as a small added incentive, but will not convince anyone at all to actually buy. Still, it's there, and if they keep on giving away Blu-Ray movies with PS3 purchases, it may sway some folks.
The elephant in the room is MGS4. If it manages to out-Assassin's Creed Assassin's Creed, combined with the strength of the brand name, it could move more systems than people night think. PS3 has the potential to best 360 on exclusives in '08. Conversely, FFXIII could be announced as a 360 multiplatform, KH3 could be announced as a Wii exclusive, etc. etc. etc. We just don't know.
If PS3 can hold on to a few more AAA exclusives, it could turn the corner. based on the price cut across all regions alone, there are certainly fans willing to make the purchase if the price and software is right. Of course, GTAIV will help the PS3 as well.
My thought is that PS3 will gain ground on the other two systems, but not anywhere near enough to pass one or the other in America in '08.
So say we all, yo.
