Not bad.

Nintendo is the new typewriter.  How come I never saw that?

Squilliam,

I think your comparison to a typewriter works for a device like an ebook reader; which is a very static, single purpose device and its primary benefits will be (eventually) matched or exceeded by low cost portable devices in the future.

The biggest strength a dedicated gaming device (console or handheld) has over a generic computing machine (PC or portable device) is what I would term Agility; which could be defined as the ability to radically redefine your position within the market to create new gaming experiences.

In much the same way as the user interface of a PC hasn’t changed significantly since Microsoft “got it right” with Windows 95, in 10 to 15 years the way people interface with their smart-phones or tablet PCs will be remarkably similar to how people use them today.

In a similar way to how Playstation Move, Kinect, the WiiMote, dual screen & touch screen gaming, analogue & hidden butons, analogue & dual analogue sticks, shoulder buttons, and the D-Pad have been involved in the steady evolution of user interfaces on dedicated gaming devices over the years, Nintendo will be able to steadily evolve the user interface of their handheld systems to offer a different (and arguably better)  than what can be produced on a generic portable computing device.

Well, even iPhone still only has around 3% market share of the whole phone market (sure, market share is bigger if you only include smartphones but 3% is market share including all phones) and it is enough for Apple and enough to sell millions of games. If you think of amount of phones sold, Apple isn't probably even in top 5 phone makers worldwide (I know for sure that they aren't in top 5 PC makers worldwide) but they still have huge profits and revenue. You don't need to sell a lot of phones to get huge revenues and profits. Nintendo needs to get majority of gamers which is in reality only a small minority of cell phone users.

It will ultimately depend on how well, the 3DS performs.

If it has at less then half of the success that the DS, then Nintendo bouncing from portables is a real possibility. But if it has at least half, Nintendo will be in the portable hardware market for at least another 15 short of a collapse on the console front.

For years, the NES and SNES supported the GB system until Pokemon became a new religion in Japan and then around the world. Then surprisingly the roles were reversed where the GB (or GBA really) was supporting the GC. Right now, Nintendo has been playing it safe by taking risks with input in the DS and Wii, without going overboard on their specs and they have made enough money to probably support themselves for at least another 15 years if at least the console or portable hardware and obviously software continue to sell enough.

The console/PC analogy mentioned earlier is perfect for this thread. The fact that PCs have proliferated without obliterating the console market - despite being capable of almost everything a console is - shows that despite all of the convergence going on people still have a want for dedicated gaming hardware. As long as Nintendo can strongly distinguish between their hardware and all of the phones there is no reason why the two markets should not exist at the same time.

It also should be remembered that Nintendos largest strength is in its gaming library, however you are correct that their largest weakness is probably their online presence.

1. I was kind of recovering from smoking something, my congnitive abilities at the time fell short when trying to find the right analogy.

2. What agility has really been shown? How can devices are only replaced every 5-7 years have agility as their main strength? How many times has any radical changes in the market position really happened in the handheld or home console markets? The home consoles of today look a lot like the home consoles of yesterday and the handhelds still look quite similar to the handhelds of yesterday as well. Contrast that with say mobiles which have gone through many different transformations in the last 20 years.

3. Until the Wiimote the same could have been said for console gaming. However the trend for simplification plus motion is a value which say an iPhone can cope with just as well as a home console.

4. Yes a steady evolution of more = better. More buttons, more analogue sticks. However now the trend is to de-evolve the same interfaces which have built up too much complexity. Fewer buttons plus motion is the name of the game. However beyond the number of buttons or type of interface remains the question of the ability of an interface to fulfill its core functions well. To prove that a touch screen device isn't suitable for playing games you'd have to prove that the core game experiences of handhelds are only suitable for dedicated gaming device's control systems. Most of Nintendos biggest handheld games are games which could be replicated on a touch screen phone because of their design simplicity in interface.

Mobile Phones/Smart phones have disrupted/incorperated all or part of:

Home line market.
PC/Internet as it is the number 1 way to access the internet in many countries.
Cameras / Video cameras -> The one which you always have.
GPS units.
Music playback.
etc.

So why would they be incapable of doing the same to portable gaming devices if they are capable of replicating the core game playing functions with the added twist of a better distribution method for the games? Being better hasn't saved my dedicated camera from being neglected, being bigger hasn't saved my GPS unit from being neglected, I never bothered with music until I could do it with my phone and sometimes I don't even turn on the PC because I can access the internet through my phone.

IMO there will also be a market big enough to support a more classic aproach when it comes to a handheld. And if anybody, Nintendo will b the one that can grab that one.

I didn't suggest that they would succeed, just that they would try, rather than allowing themselves to be disrupted.

Come to think of it, though, they're more likely to try to leverage a counterattack of their own at some point (no guarantees of success; just guarantees of effort made).

My point is that I don't think they would gracefully exit the handheld space so much as try their absolute very best to continue to make money in that space, even if it involves abandoning their thirty-year-old business model.

Nintendo's bank abalnce disagree's. And if there handhelds in 10 years time are going to be the same region-locked, friend coded mess's the 3DS is turning out to be then good riddance.

I think we can all agree on this.  They abandoned the Gameboy line for a reason, so we already know they're willing to blow up their previous progress and start anew if necessary.