Crazy right? But if you think about it their two main strengths which are their first party games and their gaming focus as well as an old blindside, distribution, are all going to bite them in the butt.

People like to compare Nintendos first party games to other first party games from other first party console manufacturers. Game, set, match. Take that as an easy win. However Nintendo's first party games compare differently to the current model of small 3rd party developers each trying to make unique innovative games. Nintendo cannot compete with the pricing model now in place for small pick up and play games and if they try to incorperate that model into their handhelds they risk reducing the average sale price of their titles and increasing competition for their own offerings. Beyond this great handheld games are no longer the preserve of a Nintendo handheld almost exclusively. They could lose revenue either way due to their reliance on the business model of the status quo and the low prices of the new styles of games.

If your company has <1% of one fast growing market and >33% in another stagnant market is your company a disrupter or the disrupted? The former is the online market where Nintendo barely has a presence, which according to EA will grow larger than the retail market this year. All of Nintendos main competitors have significantly more presence in the online market than they do. This is a significant oversight when Nintendo faces competition from many sides between Apple and Android with the phone market to the PSP2 which will likely bridge both markets successfully, with all of them and especially Apple having a significant presence online. However it also extends outwards to the more open nature of these devices and their ability to access games on the internet as well.

Nintendo is a gaming company as many companies previously were typewriter companies. If Nintendo is defining itself by the games then it is vulnerable to companies which don't call themselves game companies coming into the market. Sure the multipurpose companies don't do buttons on their devices which makes it harder to do complex games, too bad the touch screens are great for pick up and play games which is the main value of the handheld market. If all someone wants to do is a pick up and play kind of game, the easiest device to pick up and play with is the one close to hand which is of course the smartphone or tablet PC.

Im not trying to diss Nintendo (hopefully thats obvious). I just wanted to discuss how vulnerable I percieve their business model to be at the present time.

I agree. Nintend0m3d.

Nintendo is a software compare moreso than hardware manufacturer. If any company can make the transition to software, then I think Nintendo can. They not only have great developers but tremendous IP. Just think how many bazillion copies of Mario, Brain Training, Nintendogs, etc. they could release on other platforms with small porting costs.

But their strength has always been their total control over their own development environment. While strong software will endure, a bit of the magic would be lost in an environment that did not belong to them

As for the OP, Nintendo's hope is that the market for portable consoles will endure despite the proliferation of these things that are basically portable PCs

Given that Nintendo and their competitors in the console space have managed to keep the business viable for years even though everyone has PCs, there is hope that the portable console market can endure as well on the strength of its own software

Maybe by then or a bit later a single console for both big-screen home play and portable gaming on the go will be very feasible. I don't know, it's just too much time ahead in terms of technology.

That would be a good way to surrender the market for strictly handheld pick-up-and-play titles, while retaining their ability to deliver such titles on their terms, and coerce people into playing more involved handheld titles (to keep playing their console games on the go)

I have no idea how things are going to pan out for Nintendo but i have said before i think there letting themselves fall behind technology wise just a little bit too much. No graphics arnt everything but there's only so much behind u can get in that respect before people say enough is enough. And the "friend code" system that the 3ds appears to be adopting aswel is one of the most god awefull designs in the history of online gaming. And no. that isnt sarcasm >_>

so you say the handheld shift to phones will hurt N.... but did't they start doing smaller games with wiiware already? and the Dsi?

I think you're overestimating how quickly online is growing. The retail sector will probably still have respectable sales in 10 years.

I agree with your general point in the long term though. Nintendo needs to seriously take to online with 3DSi or 4DS, at the very least. More for distribution than for gameplay then I expect, though.

Oh, and, lollolollol u wii harter stop dising wii nintendo wont exit handhld ms wil

Nintendo is unpredictable, who knows what they will be doing in 10 years. Nintendo is like the phoenix, they will rise from the ashes, reborn to do things in a new way :P